Highlights

• Trump administration considering halving tariffs on Chinese imports (from 145% to 50–65%)1; China grants exemptions on some U.S. goods, including eight types of semiconductors (Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited , Tower Semiconductor Ltd , indie Semiconductor, Inc. Class A Common Stock , Lattice Semiconductor Corp , Valens Semiconductor Ltd. ), medical devices, and industrial chemicals13.
• China weighs suspending 125% tariffs on select U.S. imports (medical gear, ethane, aircraft leasing) and solicits more exemption candidates; no formal negotiation timeline set2.
• China cancels 12,000 tons of U.S. pork shipments; U.S. pork purchases by China drop 72% week-over-week, pressuring U.S. agricultural prices (Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock , Tyson Foods, Inc. , Pilgrims Pride Corporation )12.
• Swiss franc surges 9% in April amid tariff turmoil; SNB signals potential intervention as U.S.-Swiss tariff talks begin4.
• Alphabet Inc posts strong Q1: $34.5B net income (+46% YoY), $90.2B revenue (+12% YoY), $70B share buyback, 5% dividend hike; faces ongoing U.S. antitrust lawsuits5.
• Freeport-McMoRan warns of 5% U.S. cost increase from tariffs; Q1 copper sales beat volume estimates but revenue and net income fall YoY6.
• BYD Q1 net income doubles to $1.3B, nearly 1M cars sold; outpaces Tesla , which saw net income drop over 70% YoY14.
• Trump signs executive order to accelerate U.S. deep-sea mining, targeting critical minerals and $300B GDP boost over 10 years7.
• BlackRock: Central banks increasingly eye Bitcoin for diversification amid market uncertainty; BTC decoupling from tech stocks noted13.
• SUI cryptocurrency surges 80%+ this week, driven by gaming, DeFi, and network upgrades; DEX volumes and TVL spike20.
• China’s wind and solar capacity surpasses thermal for first time; renewables now 22.5% of China’s power consumption16.
• Trump backs bipartisan ban on congressional stock trading; legislative momentum grows following recent market volatility10.

Market Commentary

Risk sentiment is stabilizing as both the U.S. and China signal a tentative willingness to de-escalate the trade war, with tariff rollbacks and exemptions under discussion12. While no formal negotiations are scheduled2, these parallel moves have the potential to ease pressure on global supply chains and reduce input costs for manufacturers, particularly in the semiconductor (Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited , Tower Semiconductor Ltd , indie Semiconductor, Inc. Class A Common Stock , Lattice Semiconductor Corp , Valens Semiconductor Ltd. )3 and industrial sectors1. However, the cancellation of U.S. pork shipments and a sharp drop in Chinese agricultural imports highlight ongoing vulnerabilities for U.S. farmers and could weigh on soft commodity prices (Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock , Tyson Foods, Inc. , Pilgrims Pride Corporation )12.

Currency markets are reacting sharply to the trade headlines. The Swiss franc’s 9% surge this month, its strongest since 2008, underscores the safe-haven flows and volatility triggered by tariff uncertainty. The Swiss National Bank is signaling possible intervention as U.S.-Swiss tariff talks commence, which could inject further volatility into FX markets, particularly EUR/CHF and USD/CHF pairs4.

Equity markets are digesting robust earnings from tech bellwether Alphabet , which delivered strong top- and bottom-line beats, a large buyback, and a dividend hike—though ongoing antitrust headwinds remain a risk5. In autos, BYD’s blowout results and Tesla ’s profit slump reinforce the shifting balance of power in the global EV market, with implications for sector rotation and supply chain plays14. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan’s warning on tariff-driven cost inflation—despite copper being tariff-exempt—highlights the broader margin pressures facing U.S. industrials6.

On the commodities front, Trump’s push to accelerate deep-sea mining could eventually reshape the U.S. critical minerals landscape, but environmental and regulatory hurdles remain7. China’s renewable energy milestone, with wind and solar capacity surpassing thermal for the first time, underscores the global energy transition and may buoy sentiment in green energy equities and related commodities16.

In crypto, institutional adoption is in focus as BlackRock notes growing central bank interest in Bitcoin, potentially supporting BTC as a macro hedge13. The SUI network’s explosive growth and OKX’s upcoming wallet launch point to continued innovation and user adoption in digital assets1520. Traders should watch for further tariff headlines, FX volatility, and sector rotation in equities as the market digests these crosscurrents ahead of the open.

Highlights

• • Alphabet Inc Q1 profit surged 46% to $34.5B on $90.2B revenue, beating estimates; $70B buyback approved, shares up 6% post-market, boosting tech sector sentiment 1.
• • Intel Corp beat Q1 expectations but issued weak Q2 guidance, sending shares down 6% after hours amid margin and demand concerns 6.
• • Southwest Airlines posted a $149M Q1 loss, withdrew 2025–26 outlook, cut flights and jobs; CEO declared an “industry recession” as major US airlines revise guidance on weak leisure travel 7.
• • NYSE triggered the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator, historically signaling strong S&P 500 gains; growth stocks leading the charge 10.
• • Gold surged past $3,500/oz (+31% YTD), driven by Trump’s tariff policies, global uncertainty, and a weakening USD (DXY -10% in 3 months); strong central bank and ETF demand, especially in China 5.
• • PBOC injected a net 500B yuan ($82B) into China’s banking system to counter US tariffs, marking the largest liquidity move since Dec 2023 3.
• • Trump administration claims US-China trade talks resumed despite Beijing’s denial; tariff tensions persist with 145% US tariffs on Chinese goods 2.
• • Fed withdrew crypto/stablecoin guidance, easing bank restrictions and aligning with FDIC/OCC; banks can now engage in digital assets under standard supervision 4.
• • Citigroup forecasts stablecoin market could reach $0.5T–$3.7T by 2030, mostly USD-denominated; stablecoin issuers may become major US Treasury holders 12.
• • Bitcoin volatility now below S&P/Nasdaq; Bloomberg, BlackRock note growing corporate and central bank interest in BTC as a treasury asset 15.
• • US to offer Saudi Arabia $100B+ arms deal (Lockheed Martin Corp. , RTX Corporation , Boeing Company , General Atomics), supporting defense sector; ties to Abraham Accords and Middle East security 8.
• • Trump signs order to accelerate deep-sea mining for critical minerals, targeting 1B tons over 10 years, 100,000 jobs, and $300B GDP boost; environmental concerns raised 13.
• • Russia signals readiness for Ukraine deal as US and Trump administration move talks forward; NATO chief urges >3% GDP defense spending, doubts Putin’s peace intentions 149.
• • Merck KGaA nears $3.5B acquisition of US rare disease/cancer biotech SpringWorks; SpringWorks shares up 8%+ on deal news 11.

Market Commentary

Tech earnings dominated the after-hours session, with Alphabet Inc ’s blowout quarter and massive buyback program propelling not just its own shares but also lifting sentiment across the broader tech sector 1. In contrast, Intel Corp ’s cautious Q2 guidance and margin pressures highlight ongoing challenges in hardware and semiconductors, tempering the sector’s overall exuberance 6. The rare Zweig Breadth Thrust signal from the NYSE adds a bullish technical backdrop, historically preceding strong S&P 500 gains and likely to embolden momentum and growth investors in the near term 10.

Macro headwinds remain prominent. Gold’s explosive rally to $3,500/oz, the weakening US dollar, and China’s record gold ETF inflows all point to persistent risk aversion and hedging against policy uncertainty 5. Trump’s aggressive tariff stance and ambiguous signals on US-China trade talks—contradicted by Beijing—continue to inject volatility into global markets 2. China’s central bank responded with its largest liquidity injection in over a year, aiming to cushion the domestic economy from external shocks 3. These crosscurrents are likely to keep commodity and currency markets volatile, with gold and safe-haven flows in focus 5.

In fixed income and digital assets, the Fed’s rollback of restrictive crypto guidance marks a significant policy shift, potentially catalyzing further institutional adoption of stablecoins and digital assets 4. Citigroup’s bullish stablecoin forecast and BlackRock’s commentary on central bank Bitcoin interest underscore a growing institutional pivot toward blockchain-based assets, especially as corporate treasuries seek alternatives amid dollar weakness and regulatory clarity improves 1215.

Sector rotation is evident in equities: while tech and select healthcare names (e.g., SpringWorks on M&A news) are in favor 11, cyclical and consumer-facing sectors are under pressure. Airlines are flashing recession signals, with Southwest and peers slashing guidance and capacity amid collapsing leisure demand 7. Defense stocks may see renewed interest on the back of a $100B+ US-Saudi arms deal and NATO’s push for higher defense spending, as geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated 89.

Traders should watch for follow-through on the Zweig Breadth Thrust in US equities 10, rotation into gold and digital assets as macro hedges 515, and sector-specific moves in defense, tech, and airlines. Macro data and further policy signals from both the Fed and the Trump administration will be critical in shaping risk appetite and cross-asset correlations as the market digests a complex, fast-moving global backdrop.

Highlights

• Tesla Q1 net income plunged 71% to $409M; EU sales down 45%1. Musk to reduce government role to refocus on Tesla1. Shares up 8% after hours despite ongoing pressure1.
• Alphabet beat Q1 estimates with $90.2B revenue (+12% YoY), $2.81 EPS (+49%), and a $70B buyback. Shares up 5% after hours2.
• Boeing faces halted China jet deliveries amid escalating U.S.-China tariffs; plans to redirect ~50 aircraft. Trade tensions intensify3.
• Google faces potential Chrome browser divestiture after second DOJ antitrust loss; Perplexity AI and Yahoo express acquisition interest4.
• EU levies €700M in first Digital Markets Act fines on Apple and Meta; U.S. calls move "economic extortion," raising transatlantic tech/trade tensions5.
• China denies U.S. claims of ongoing trade talks, demands tariff rollback; Trump asserts daily meetings6. Markets rallied on Trump's comments7.
• U.S. retail sales surged 1.4% in March, fueled by pre-tariff buying; durable goods orders jumped 9.2%. Toyota U.S. sales up 8% on tariff rush13.
• Gold rebounded to $3,340/oz after sharp Shanghai-led selloff; volatility tied to U.S.-China trade uncertainty and a weaker dollar11.
• Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast further U.S. dollar weakness; euro could reach $1.3014.
• NYSE triggers rare Zweig Breadth Thrust, historically signaling strong S&P 500 gains15.
• U.S. to offer Saudi Arabia $100B+ arms deal (Lockheed, Boeing, RTX, General Atomics) during Trump’s May visit; defense stocks in focus10.
• PayPal to offer 3.7% yield on PYUSD, expands Coinbase partnership for fee-free transactions; crypto adoption initiatives accelerate16.
• SEC acknowledges VanEck spot Avalanche ETF filing amid 70+ crypto ETF reviews; CME to launch XRP futures May 191718.
• PepsiCo cuts full-year profit outlook to flat EPS, citing trade/tariff headwinds; shares down 2%20.

Market Commentary

Markets closed on a high note, buoyed by upbeat tech earnings and renewed risk appetite, despite ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainties. Alphabet’s robust Q1 beat and $70B buyback underscored continued digital ad and cloud strength, propelling tech higher and helping the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notch notable gains2. Tesla’s profit collapse and European demand woes were overshadowed by Musk’s pledge to refocus on the company, fueling an 8% after-hours bounce, though fundamental headwinds remain1.

Trade and regulatory risks remain front and center. Boeing’s China delivery freeze and the escalating U.S.-China tariff standoff highlight persistent supply chain and demand risks for multinationals3. Conflicting U.S. and Chinese statements on trade talks injected volatility6, but markets responded positively to any hint of dialogue—underscoring the sensitivity of risk assets to trade headlines7. Meanwhile, the EU’s first Digital Markets Act fines on Apple and Meta5, plus the DOJ’s antitrust push against Google4, signal a tougher global regulatory regime for U.S. tech giants, raising the specter of forced divestitures and ongoing cross-border friction.

Macro data painted a mixed but resilient picture. U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders surged on pre-tariff buying, supporting the consumer and industrial sectors for now, but raising questions about demand sustainability as tariffs bite13. The dollar’s recent slide—projected to continue by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank—reflects both trade policy headwinds and shifting capital flows, with the euro possibly strengthening to $1.3014. Commodities responded with volatility: gold rebounded sharply from a Shanghai-driven selloff, supported by safe-haven flows and a weaker dollar11.

In crypto, institutional adoption continues to accelerate. PayPal’s 3.7% yield on PYUSD and expanded Coinbase partnership, coupled with the SEC’s review of new spot crypto ETFs and CME’s upcoming XRP futures, signal deepening mainstream integration and product innovation in digital assets1617.

Strategically, traders should watch for further tech sector leadership, especially if the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal plays out as in past cycles15. However, headline risk from U.S.-China relations, regulatory actions, and tariff-driven demand shifts remain key sources of volatility. Defensive positioning in gold and select commodities may persist if dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions escalate1114. Eyes will also be on defense stocks as the U.S. advances a major Saudi arms deal, and on consumer and industrial names for signs of post-tariff demand normalization10.

Highlights

• Trump announced a morning meeting with China on trade, boosting Nasdaq 100 to new highs (+2%) and lifting S&P 500 and Nasdaq1.
• China denied any tariff negotiations with the U.S., demanding Washington drop all unilateral duties and warning of readiness for a tariff war3.
• Trump signaled possible 145% tariff cuts on China if a deal is reached but warned tariffs could be set within weeks if talks fail4.
• U.S. retail sales surged 1.4% in March, led by pre-tariff buying of cars and electronics; durable goods orders soared 9.2%18.
• The U.S. Dollar Index is down 9% YTD, hitting a three-year low; Goldman and Deutsche Bank warn of further declines, with euro seen at $1.307.
• Gold rebounded to $3,340/oz after a sharp drop, amid U.S.-China trade uncertainty and a weaker dollar; IMF cut U.S. and global growth outlooks6.
• AAII survey shows record nine-week bearish sentiment; hedge funds’ long/short ratio at nine-year lows, with institutional investors bracing for S&P 500 downside8.
• Tesla Q1 net income fell 71% as EU sales plunged 45%; Musk to reduce government role to refocus on Tesla, shares rallied 8% after-hours2.
• Norway’s $1.7T sovereign fund lost $40B in Q1, mainly on tech stocks; U.S. equities exposure remains high9.
• Chipotle missed revenue estimates as same-store sales fell for the first time since 2020; shares dropped 5% after hours15.
• ServiceNow beat earnings, grew revenue 18.5%, and stock jumped 11% on strong AI-driven demand and federal business growth16.
• Boeing’s Q1 loss narrowed, backlog grew to $545B, and shares rose pre-market on improved cash flow and deliveries17.
• Trump to sign deep-sea mining order, sending The Metals Company shares up 40% on critical mineral supply hopes14.
• CME to launch micro and large XRP futures in May; SEC acknowledged VanEck spot Avalanche ETF filing amid broad crypto ETF review1213.
• IBM beat Q1 earnings but shares fell 6% after DOGE-led federal contract cuts; generative AI business grew20.
• Ukraine risks $600M default in May after failing to restructure $2.6B GDP warrants, threatening its IMF bailout19.

Market Commentary

Markets are closing out the session on a volatile but broadly positive note, with U.S.-China trade headlines dominating sentiment. President Trump’s announcement of a morning meeting with China provided a tailwind for equities, especially tech1, but Beijing’s categorical denial of tariff talks and threats of a renewed tariff war inject significant uncertainty3. The market’s knee-jerk rally on hopes of tariff relief could be vulnerable to reversal if concrete progress fails to materialize, especially as Trump’s rhetoric remains unpredictable4 and China’s stance hardens3.

The macro backdrop is further complicated by a sharply weaker dollar—down 9% YTD—fueling both inflationary concerns and export competitiveness7. Major banks see more downside for the greenback, which is already pressuring import costs and supporting gold prices7. Gold’s rebound after a record Shanghai sell-off underscores the market’s bid for safety amid trade and geopolitical risks, with the IMF’s global growth downgrade adding to defensive positioning6. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders surged in March, but the spike appears front-loaded by pre-tariff buying, raising the risk of a demand air pocket in coming months18.

Equity sentiment remains fragile. The AAII survey and hedge fund positioning point to the most bearish stance in decades, despite today’s bounce in major indices8. Institutional investors are bracing for a potential S&P 500 drawdown, and Norway’s sovereign fund’s $40B tech-driven loss highlights the risk in crowded growth trades9. On the micro front, Tesla’s weak quarter and Chipotle’s sales miss show cracks in consumer and discretionary demand215, while ServiceNow’s and Boeing’s beats offer some offset, particularly in AI and industrials1617.

Commodities and crypto are in focus as well. Trump’s deep-sea mining order is a clear positive for critical mineral suppliers14, while CME’s XRP futures and the SEC’s crypto ETF reviews signal deepening institutionalization of digital assets1213. In fixed income, the risk of a Ukraine default and ongoing global uncertainty may keep safe-haven demand elevated, but dollar weakness could limit U.S. Treasury outperformance197.

Traders should watch for late-session reversals if U.S.-China optimism fades, monitor the dollar’s slide for spillover into commodities and EM assets76, and keep an eye on equity sector rotation as tech volatility and defensive flows intensify89. With sentiment this bearish and macro crosscurrents swirling, risk management and tactical flexibility remain paramount into the close.

Highlights

• Tesla Q1 net income plunged 71%1 amid sharp EU sales drop1; Musk to reduce government role to refocus on company1, shares rebound 8% after hours12.
• U.S. equities surged: S&P 500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +2.5% after Trump signals lower China tariffs and backs Fed Chair Powell2; Treasury yields fell14.
• OPEC+ to discuss June output hike as oil futures drop $2 to four-year lows3; Kazakh overproduction and weak demand pressure prices3.
• Boeing faces Chinese delivery freeze for 50 jets due to tariff dispute4; three 737 MAX jets returned4, company seeks new buyers4.
• Major U.S. airlines (Southwest, American, Alaska) withdraw 2025 forecasts7, report Q1 losses7, and announce cost cuts amid demand and tariff uncertainty7.
• ServiceNow beat Q1 estimates with 18.5% revenue growth, strong AI demand5; stock up 11%5.
• Chipotle missed revenue estimates, posted first same-store sales decline since 20206; shares fell 5% after hours6.
• Novavax shares surged 21% as its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine nears full FDA approval8.
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fall to 1990s lows9; auctions see steady demand9, but some countries shift to Bitcoin9.
• Goldman, Deutsche forecast further U.S. dollar decline13; euro seen reaching $1.30 as current account deficit and trade policy weigh13.
• Bitcoin hits $93,000 as institutions buy on de-dollarization17; Cantor, SoftBank, Tether launch $4B bitcoin treasury firm19.
• Gold rebounds above $3,340/oz after sharp selloff20; volatility driven by U.S.-China trade uncertainty20 and weaker dollar20.

Market Commentary

Risk assets are rebounding sharply in early trade, fueled by President Trump’s unexpectedly dovish tone on China tariffs220 and renewed support for Fed Chair Powell2. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s strong gains2 signal a return of risk appetite, particularly in tech, despite ongoing macro headwinds. Tesla’s battered results—marked by a 71% profit drop1 and a 45% collapse in European sales1—were overshadowed after-hours by Elon Musk’s pledge to refocus on the company1, triggering a relief rally in the stock12. ServiceNow’s robust earnings and the surge in Novavax highlight ongoing investor interest in AI5 and healthcare innovation8.

The macro backdrop remains challenging. U.S. leading indicators fell more than expected14, and major airlines are withdrawing 2025 guidance as tariffs and demand uncertainty bite7. Boeing’s China woes underscore how trade tensions are directly impacting industrials4, while OPEC+’s struggle to support oil prices amid talk of output hikes and Kazakh overproduction is weighing on energy3. Chipotle’s miss and same-store sales decline point to a cooling U.S. consumer6, even as new home sales and lower mortgage rates offer a counterpoint in housing14.

In fixed income, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries have dropped to multi-decade lows9, though auction demand remains solid for now9. The dollar’s recent slide is set to continue, according to Goldman and Deutsche13, with the euro potentially heading to $1.3013. This currency weakness, combined with de-dollarization flows17, is fueling institutional demand for Bitcoin, now near $93,00017, and supporting gold’s rebound above $3,340/oz after a volatile week20. The launch of a $4B bitcoin treasury firm by Cantor, SoftBank, and Tether further cements crypto’s growing role as an alternative store of value19.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Russian missile attacks on Kyiv15 and nuclear rhetoric from Moscow16 keeping a bid under safe havens. Meanwhile, legal and political battles over tariffs12 and emissions standards10 add to policy uncertainty. Traders should watch for further headlines on U.S.-China220 and U.S.-Canada trade11, OPEC+ output decisions3, and Supreme Court rulings on state climate authority10.

In summary, while today’s equity bounce is encouraging, the cross-currents of trade, policy, and geopolitical risk mean volatility is likely to persist. Focus on sector rotation—tech and AI remain leadership areas5, while industrials and consumer cyclicals face headwinds46. Stay nimble in rates and FX as the dollar weakens13, and monitor flows into gold and crypto as alternative hedges2017.

Highlights

• Tesla Q1 net income plunged 71% amid a 20% drop in auto revenue and a 45% sales slump in Europe; Musk to reduce government role and refocus on Tesla, boosting shares 8% after hours.1
• U.S. equities surged (S&P 500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +2.5%) as Trump signaled lower China tariffs and support for Fed Chair Powell; global markets also rallied.2
• Beijing refuted Trump’s claim of ongoing trade talks, insisting no negotiations will occur without U.S. tariff rollbacks, highlighting persistent U.S.-China trade tensions.4
• OPEC+ to discuss a potential June output hike at May 5 meeting as oil prices hit four-year lows; U.S. and Brent futures fell $2 on the news.3
• U.S. airlines (Southwest, American, Alaska) withdrew 2025 forecasts and reported Q1 losses, citing weak demand, rising costs, and tariff impacts; capacity cuts and layoffs announced.12
• Boeing faces Chinese delivery refusals and returns of 737 MAX jets due to escalating U.S.-China tariffs; plans to redirect aircraft to other markets.6
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries dropped to 1990s lows; bill and note auctions saw mixed demand, with some countries reportedly shifting from Treasuries to Bitcoin.7
• Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast further U.S. dollar weakness, projecting EUR/USD could reach 1.30 amid trade and capital flow shifts.9
• Chipotle missed revenue estimates and saw its first same-store sales decline since 2020; shares fell 5% after hours.11
• ServiceNow beat earnings expectations with 18.5% revenue growth; shares jumped 11% on strong AI and federal business performance.10
• Bitcoin hit $93,000 in April, driven by institutional and sovereign wealth fund buying as retail exited ETFs; Riot Platforms secured a $100M bitcoin-backed credit facility.1819
• 12 U.S. states sued the Trump administration to halt new tariffs, arguing executive overreach; case could clarify limits of presidential trade powers.20

Market Commentary

U.S. markets are opening against a backdrop of renewed risk appetite, with equities rebounding sharply on hopes for tariff relief and continued Fed independence. President Trump’s softer rhetoric on China tariffs and explicit backing of Jerome Powell have fueled a relief rally, especially in tech and growth stocks.2 However, Beijing’s outright denial of ongoing trade talks underscores that structural tensions remain unresolved, tempering optimism for a near-term breakthrough.4

Corporate earnings send a mixed signal: Tesla’s dramatic profit drop and European sales collapse highlight the impact of political risk and global competition in the EV sector, though Musk’s renewed operational focus offered a short-term boost.1 ServiceNow’s robust results and guidance stand out in tech,10 while Chipotle’s first same-store sales decline since the pandemic and airline sector losses point to consumer fatigue and macro headwinds.1112 The airline industry’s withdrawal of guidance and cost-cutting moves, compounded by tariff-related uncertainty, signal persistent demand fragility and margin pressure.12

In fixed income, foreign participation in U.S. Treasuries continues to erode, with holdings at multi-decade lows and some evidence of capital rotation into alternative assets like Bitcoin.7 Treasury auctions saw solid demand at the long end but weaker indirect interest in shorter maturities.7 The dollar’s recent slide is expected to continue, per Goldman and Deutsche, as current account deficits and shifting global capital flows weigh on the greenback; a move toward EUR/USD 1.30 would have broad asset allocation implications.9

Commodities are under pressure, with oil prices sliding to four-year lows amid OPEC+ output discord and Kazakh overproduction.3 The risk of further price weakness looms if production hikes are confirmed, which could weigh on energy equities and emerging market fiscal balances.3 Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s institutional-driven rally—contrasting with retail ETF outflows—signals growing acceptance of crypto as a macro hedge, especially as some sovereigns reportedly rotate out of Treasuries.187 Riot Platforms' $100M bitcoin-backed credit facility further underscores the growing integration of crypto in financial markets.19

Traders should watch for follow-through in the equity rally, especially in tech and AI leaders,10 but remain alert to headline risk from trade negotiations and legal challenges to tariffs.420 The dollar’s trajectory, Treasury auction results, and oil market developments will be key for cross-asset positioning.793 The divergence between institutional and retail flows in crypto and the evolving regulatory landscape also warrant close attention as non-traditional assets gain traction in global portfolios.18

Highlights

• S&P 500 surged 2.5% and Dow jumped 1,016 points after President Trump affirmed Fed Chair Powell’s job and signaled possible China tariff reductions; Nasdaq up 2.7%, Tesla rallied 7%.
• White House is considering cutting China tariffs to 50–65%, with a tiered approach for strategic goods; no final decision yet.
• U.S. dollar rallied sharply, then stabilized on Trump’s Fed and China remarks; euro fell 0.49% vs USD, gold dipped as risk appetite returned.
• Tesla Q1 profit fell 71% on weak sales and boycotts; Musk to reduce government duties and refocus on Tesla, boosting shares 5% after hours.
• Intel to cut over 20,000 jobs (20% of workforce) in major restructuring under new CEO; shares rose 3–5% on cost-cut optimism.
• Boeing beat Q1 estimates despite China returning two 737 MAX jets over tariffs; 10% of Boeing’s commercial backlog at risk, but company sees manageable impact and strong revenue growth.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $912.7M in net inflows—largest since January—led by ARK, Fidelity, and BlackRock; total Bitcoin ETF assets now above $100B, Ethereum ETFs also saw renewed inflows.
• US leveraged long equity ETFs drew record $6.6B in inflows last week, driven by retail; foreign investors withdrew $7B from US stock funds, raising concerns about asset repricing.
• Treasury 2- and 5-year note auctions saw mixed demand and higher yields; mortgage rates rose to 6.90%, but new home sales beat expectations, up 7.4% MoM.
• DOJ launched antitrust probe into Disney’s 70% stake in FuboTV (merging with Hulu + Live TV); Disney paid Fubo $220M to settle prior litigation.
• US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s energy/nuclear sectors ahead of Oman talks; EIA data showed crude stocks flat but sharp draws in gasoline/distillates.
• Novavax shares soared 21% as COVID-19 vaccine nears full FDA approval, though timeline delayed amid political scrutiny.

Market Commentary

Markets staged a robust relief rally today, powered by President Trump’s assurance of Fed independence and hints at a significant reduction in China tariffs. The S&P 500 and Dow posted their strongest single-day gains in months, as risk appetite returned and volatility retreated. The dovish shift in trade rhetoric, combined with the White House’s consideration of a tiered tariff rollback, has eased global growth concerns and sparked a broad-based bid across equities, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors and tech. Tesla’s rebound, despite weak earnings, underscores the market’s focus on forward guidance and executive attention.

The rally extended to the U.S. dollar, which spiked on the prospect of policy stability and improved macro outlook, while gold retreated as haven demand faded. However, the Treasury market sent mixed signals: recent 2- and 5-year auctions showed tepid indirect demand and slightly higher yields, suggesting that foreign appetite for U.S. debt may be waning. This is consistent with data showing $7 billion in foreign outflows from U.S. equities, even as retail investors pile into leveraged long ETFs at record pace. The divergence between robust retail flows and institutional/foreign selling could set up for increased volatility if sentiment shifts.

In corporate news, Intel’s sweeping layoffs and Boeing’s strong results (despite China delivery hiccups) highlight both the challenges and resilience in U.S. industrials. Tesla’s production delays tied to China’s rare earth export curbs and ongoing tariff uncertainty remain a risk to supply chains, though Musk’s renewed focus on the company was well received. Meanwhile, the DOJ’s probe into Disney’s FuboTV deal and Eli Lilly’s legal actions signal heightened regulatory and competitive scrutiny in media and healthcare.

Commodities saw a mixed day: oil inventories were flat, but gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply, supporting energy prices. New U.S. sanctions on Iran add a layer of geopolitical risk, though the market impact appears muted for now. In crypto, Bitcoin ETFs drew their largest inflows since January, signaling renewed institutional and retail interest amid macro uncertainty, with Ethereum products also seeing a modest turnaround.

Traders should watch for late-session profit-taking after the sharp equity rally, monitor Treasury yields for signs of further foreign selling, and keep an eye on developments in U.S.-China trade policy and tariff litigation. The disconnect between retail exuberance and institutional caution, combined with ongoing cross-currents in rates, commodities, and crypto, points to a market that remains headline-driven and sensitive to policy signals. Stay nimble into the close.

Highlights

• U.S. stock futures rally sharply (Dow +444 pts, S&P 500 +1.7%) after Trump rules out firing Fed Chair Powell and signals softer tone on China tariffs; tech stocks lead, Tesla +5%.
• Trump reiterates push for Fed rate cuts but confirms Powell will remain; markets relieved by continuity at the Fed.
• IMF slashes global growth forecast to 2.8% and U.S. to 1.8% for 2025, citing U.S. tariff policy as a principal risk; U.S. recession odds raised to 40%.
• U.S. dollar surges, then stabilizes on Fed and trade news; gold hits record $3,509.90 before pulling back, oil (Brent) rises to $68.09/bbl.
• Bitcoin jumps to $93,000 amid equity volatility, with ETF inflows surging to highest since January; correlation with S&P 500 remains moderate.
• Intel to cut 20% of workforce (~20,000 jobs) in major restructuring; shares +3.3% premarket.
• Vertiv Holdings beats Q1 earnings, raises guidance on AI/data center demand; shares surge 20% premarket.
• EU fines Apple (€500M) and Meta (€200M) under Digital Markets Act, escalating regulatory pressure on U.S. tech; both plan to appeal.
• Tesla Q1 revenue misses (–9% YoY), automotive sales –20%, guidance pulled; cash position strong, new models on track for 2025.
• U.S. auto groups urge delay to 25% parts tariff set for May 3, warning of job losses and supply chain disruption; Trump signals possible relief.
• U.S. resumes collections on 5M defaulted student loans May 5, including wage garnishment; potential consumer headwind.
• China warns South Korea to halt rare earth exports to U.S. defense firms, raising supply chain/geopolitical risks.

Market Commentary

Markets are staging a relief rally this morning, with U.S. equity futures rebounding on the back of President Trump’s assurance that Fed Chair Powell will remain in place and his softened rhetoric on China tariffs. The removal of immediate Fed leadership risk and hints at tariff de-escalation have eased investor anxiety, driving gains in risk assets—particularly tech, with Tesla and Intel both in focus. However, the IMF’s sharp downgrade of global and U.S. growth forecasts underscores that the macro backdrop remains fragile, with tariff policy still a major overhang.

The dollar’s initial surge and subsequent stabilization reflect shifting perceptions of U.S. policy risk and global capital flows. A record spike in gold, followed by a pullback, signals ongoing hedging against uncertainty despite improved sentiment. Oil’s move higher is supported by both risk-on flows and continued geopolitical tension, with the U.S. sanctioning Iranian energy networks and the EU accelerating moves to shift away from Russian gas, potentially boosting U.S. LNG demand.

In sector news, tech and AI remain bright spots: Vertiv’s blowout quarter and raised guidance highlight persistent demand for data center infrastructure, while Intel’s deep cost cuts are cheered by investors seeking margin improvement. Conversely, Tesla’s weak Q1 and withdrawn guidance reveal the operational headwinds facing EV makers amid tariff and demand uncertainty. Regulatory risk for U.S. tech is again in the spotlight after hefty EU fines for Apple and Meta, raising the specter of further trans-Atlantic trade friction.

Traders should watch for follow-through in equities, particularly in tech and AI-adjacent names, but remain alert to headline risk around tariffs and Fed policy. Fixed income markets are digesting strong Treasury auction demand but remain sensitive to growth downgrades and inflationary pressures from tariffs. The resumption of student loan collections could weigh on consumer discretionary names. Commodities, especially gold and oil, are likely to stay volatile on geopolitical crosscurrents. Crypto’s resilience—Bitcoin at $93,000—suggests continued diversification flows amid macro uncertainty.

Bottom line: The relief rally may have legs in the short term, but with global growth expectations falling, policy uncertainty persisting, and supply chain/geopolitical risks unresolved, traders should stay nimble and watch for reversals as new data and policy signals emerge.

Highlights

• U.S. equity futures surge (Dow +600 pts, S&P 500 +2.4%, Nasdaq 100 +2.8%) after Trump rules out firing Fed Chair Powell and signals softer China trade stance; dollar rallies, gold drops12.
• Trump pledges to "substantially" lower China tariffs from 145%, adopting a conciliatory tone ahead of new trade talks; S&P 500 futures and major tech stocks rise21.
• IMF slashes 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% (U.S. to 1.8%) citing tariff-driven uncertainty; U.S. recession risk raised to 40%7.
• Intel to cut over 20% of workforce (~20,000 jobs) in CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s restructuring; shares up 3.3% premarket4.
• Tesla Q1 profit plunges 71% on weak demand and competition, but shares jump 5% after Musk vows renewed focus on company3.
• EU fines Apple €500M and Meta €200M under Digital Markets Act; both vow to appeal, risking trans-Atlantic tech tensions5.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs see record $912.7M inflow, led by ARK, Fidelity, BlackRock; total ETF assets top $100B, signaling renewed crypto interest8.
• Vertiv Holdings surges 20% premarket after Q1 beat and raised AI-driven guidance10.
• U.S. Leading Index falls 0.7%, mortgage rates hit 6.9% (highest since Feb); mortgage apps plunge 12.7% as housing sector weakens14.
• China warns South Korea to halt rare earth exports to U.S. defense firms, escalating supply chain risks6.
• Yemen’s Houthis fire hypersonic missile at Israel, target U.S. Navy, down drone; Middle East tensions persist9.
• U.S. Education Dept. to resume collections on 5M defaulted student loans May 5, adding consumer headwinds18.

Market Commentary

Markets are opening with a decisive risk-on tone, driven by a sharp reversal in White House rhetoric. President Trump’s assurance that Fed Chair Powell will remain in place, coupled with unexpectedly dovish trade remarks toward China, has unleashed a rally in U.S. equity futures and major tech names12. The dollar’s surge and gold’s pullback underline a shift in risk appetite, even as the IMF’s global growth downgrade and recession warnings linger in the background7.

The renewed optimism on trade—Trump’s pledge to sharply reduce China tariffs—has overshadowed the IMF’s sobering growth cut and the persistent drag from tariffs on global supply chains27. However, the underlying macro signals remain mixed: the U.S. Leading Index fell more than expected, mortgage rates are at cycle highs, and housing activity is deteriorating14. Fixed income markets are seeing strong demand for short-term Treasuries, nudging yields lower, suggesting that not all investors are buying into the equity euphoria14.

Tech and AI remain in the spotlight. Intel’s sweeping layoffs and Vertiv’s blowout AI-driven results highlight the sector’s ongoing transformation410. Meanwhile, Apple and Meta face mounting regulatory risk in Europe, potentially stoking U.S.-EU trade friction just as Washington and Brussels negotiate on tariffs5. Tesla’s profit miss is being shrugged off as Musk promises renewed focus, but the broader auto sector faces uncertainty with looming U.S. parts tariffs and industry pleas for delay317.

Commodities and geopolitics are adding complexity. China’s move to restrict South Korean rare earth exports to U.S. defense firms raises the specter of new supply chain disruptions6. In energy, activist pressure on BP and EU moves to cut Russian gas imports point to continued volatility1216. Middle East risks remain elevated after Houthi missile attacks on Israel and U.S. assets9. Meanwhile, crypto is seeing a resurgence, with Bitcoin ETFs drawing record inflows as investors seek alternatives amid policy and inflation uncertainty8.

Traders should watch for follow-through in equity momentum, potential reversals in rates and FX as macro data and Fed commentary come into focus, and any escalation in trade or geopolitical tensions that could quickly sour sentiment. Sector rotation into AI, tech, and crypto is likely to persist, but defensive positioning may reassert if macro or geopolitical risks intensify. Stay nimble—headline risk remains high across all asset classes.