TL;DR

Russian strikes escalate; EU/UK trigger new sanctions on Russia/Iran; U.S. doubles tariffs on India.

Highlights

• Russian missile strikes kill 15 in Kyiv, damage EU and UK institutions; EU leaders push for tighter sanctions as attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure intensify 1.
• UK, France, and Germany move to trigger UN snapback sanctions on Iran, risking reimposed restrictions on Iranian energy and finance 2.
• Trump administration doubles tariffs on most Indian goods to 50%, threatening $37B in exports; India seeks new trade deals and markets 4.
• Mexico to propose tariffs on Chinese cars, textiles, and plastics in 2026 budget, responding to U.S. pressure and domestic industry concerns 5.
• China to cut over 90 million tonnes of coal-based steel output by 2026, cap coal production, and expand domestic iron ore projects 6.
• Russia extends full gasoline export ban through September; Arctic LNG 2 delivers first sanctioned LNG cargo to China 78.
• EU considers secondary sanctions on third-country firms aiding Russia, with possible new restrictions on oil, gas, and finance 11.
• Bank of Korea holds rates but signals majority support for a cut within months; Philippine central bank cuts rates to 5% 920.
• Japan’s 2-year JGB auction sees weakest demand since 2009, reflecting caution ahead of potential BOJ policy changes 10.
• Berkshire Hathaway raises Mitsubishi stake above 10%, becoming top shareholder and signaling continued interest in Japanese trading houses 18.
• FBI and allies warn of Chinese “Salt Typhoon” cyber-espionage campaign in 80 countries; Pentagon orders audit of Microsoft cloud after Chinese engineer involvement 1312.
• Europe’s auto market rebounds in July; BYD overtakes Tesla in regional EV sales as Chinese brands gain share 17.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains front and center, with Russian strikes on Kyiv and damage to EU-linked infrastructure prompting European calls for stricter sanctions 1. The EU is also considering secondary sanctions to clamp down on Russia’s access to global markets 11, while the UK, France, and Germany are moving to reimpose broad UN sanctions on Iran—both actions that could further restrict energy flows and add volatility to oil and gas prices 211. Russia’s gasoline export ban extension 7 and the first sanctioned LNG cargo from Arctic LNG 2 to China 8 highlight ongoing disruptions and evolving sanction enforcement in global energy trade.

Trade protectionism is intensifying. The Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods threaten significant disruption to bilateral trade, especially in labor-intensive sectors, with India accelerating diversification efforts 4. Mexico’s planned tariffs on Chinese imports reflect both domestic pressures and alignment with U.S. trade policy 5, while China’s steel output cuts and anti-dumping measures underscore efforts to stabilize domestic industry amid global headwinds 616. These developments point to ongoing supply chain adjustments and potential currency and commodity volatility, particularly in emerging markets.

Central banks in Asia are signaling a cautious easing bias. The Bank of Korea held rates but flagged likely cuts within months 9, while the Philippines delivered another rate reduction to support growth 20. In contrast, Japan’s weak 2-year JGB auction signals market nerves ahead of possible BOJ normalization, which could impact regional fixed income and FX markets 10.

In equities, Berkshire Hathaway ’s increased stake in Mitsubishi signals sustained foreign interest in Japanese corporates despite shifting rate expectations 18. Europe’s auto sector is rebounding, with Chinese EV makers like BYD gaining ground despite regulatory scrutiny and tariff threats 17. Meanwhile, cybersecurity risks are in focus following the exposure of a major Chinese cyber-espionage campaign 13 and the Pentagon’s audit of Microsoft ’s cloud operations 12, raising the risk profile for tech and defense sectors.

TL;DR

Iran nuclear talks fail; Nvidia earnings, China chip push, and EU–US tariff moves in focus.

Highlights

• Iran–E3 nuclear talks end without agreement; UN sanctions "snapback" likely as IAEA inspectors partially return to Iran1.
• Israel prepares for ground operation in Gaza City, signaling heightened regional risk3.
• Ukraine and Russia escalate energy infrastructure attacks; Russian fuel shortages and Ukrainian power outages worsen4.
• EU to fast-track removal of tariffs on US industrial goods, potentially prompting US auto tariff cuts; preferential rates for some seafood/agriculture included2.
• Rare earth and tungsten prices surge as US miner MP Materials halts China exports; Western officials move to block Chinese acquisition of Vietnam’s Nui Phao tungsten mine98.
• China’s $1 trillion equity rally triggers tighter margin rules; retail flows up, leverage high, foreign inflows limited5.
• Chinese AI chipmakers plan to triple output in response to US export curbs; domestic hardware-software alignment advances6.
• Nvidia earnings in focus, with $46B quarter expected; guidance on China sales and US export controls closely watched13.
• Crypto funds see $1.4B in weekly outflows, led by Bitcoin ETFs; institutional demand softens11.
• Italy considers €1.5B bank levy and delayed tax payments to manage fiscal pressures7.
• Ofgem raises UK energy price cap 2% for winter; household bills remain elevated16.
• Germany and Canada sign pact to strengthen critical-mineral supply chains, aiming to reduce reliance on China/Russia20.

Commentary

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. The collapse of Iran–E3 nuclear talks, with UN sanctions likely to be reimposed, and Israel’s preparations for a ground offensive in Gaza both raise the risk of further instability in the Middle East13. This environment supports a cautious stance on regional assets and may add a risk premium to oil and select commodities. The Russia–Ukraine conflict is now directly impacting energy infrastructure, with reciprocal strikes leading to fuel shortages in Russia and power outages in Ukraine, a development that could tighten energy markets as winter approaches4.

Trade policy is shifting. The EU’s accelerated plan to remove tariffs on US industrial goods could pave the way for US auto tariff reductions, providing potential upside for European autos and US industrials2. However, the EU’s defensive measures to shield its aluminium sector from US tariffs highlight ongoing trade friction in specific sectors15. Italy’s proposed bank levy and tax payment delays reflect ongoing fiscal challenges in the eurozone periphery and may weigh on local financial stocks7.

In Asia, China’s equity rally—driven largely by retail and state-backed flows—has prompted brokers to tighten margin requirements as leverage surges. Foreign participation remains subdued, raising questions about the rally’s sustainability5. Meanwhile, China’s push to expand domestic AI chip production is a direct response to US export restrictions, with implications for global semiconductor supply chains and for Nvidia ’s China business, which is under scrutiny ahead of its earnings report613. Rare earth and tungsten markets are tightening as Western governments seek to restrict Chinese access to critical minerals, driving up prices and benefiting non-Chinese producers such as MP Materials 98.

Crypto markets saw their largest outflows since March, with institutional demand softening amid macro uncertainty11. In Europe, the UK’s energy price cap increase and Germany–Canada’s critical-mineral pact both reflect ongoing supply-side and inflationary pressures, with implications for utilities, industrials, and commodity currencies1620.

Traders should focus on Nvidia ’s results for direction in tech and AI-linked equities, monitor energy and critical mineral prices for supply-driven moves, and watch for further developments in Middle East and Eastern European geopolitics, which could impact risk sentiment and commodity markets131.

TL;DR

Trump fires Fed Governor; Powell signals September rate cut; global trade and French political risks rise.

Highlights

• Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook, triggering a legal challenge over Fed independence; dollar weakens, U.S. yields steepen, equity futures dip as rate cut odds rise 1.
• Powell signals readiness to cut rates if labor market softens; markets price >80% chance of September Fed cut 2.
• Trump threatens new tariffs and visa sanctions over EU digital rules; also warns of 200% tariffs on Chinese rare-earth magnets 35.
• China sends top trade negotiator to Washington for renewed talks focused on tariffs, rare earths, and tech access 4.
• Brent crude rises above $68 after Ukraine drone strikes on Russian refineries; supply concerns persist 6.
• French stocks and bonds fall as PM Bayrou calls confidence vote, widening French-German yield spreads and raising political risk 11.
• Germany and Canada agree to deepen cooperation on critical minerals to reduce dependence on China 13.
• Norway’s $2T oil fund divests from Caterpillar and five Israeli banks over human rights concerns in conflict zones 12.
• Bitcoin drops below $110,000 after $900M in liquidations; broad crypto sell-off follows 18.
• World Federation of Exchanges urges tighter regulation of tokenised stocks; regulatory scrutiny intensifies 17.
• Korean Air places record $50B order for Boeing jets and GE engines, supporting U.S. aerospace exports 15.
• Temu resumes China-U.S. direct shipping after tariff truce; cost pressures to rise as de minimis exemptions end Aug. 29 20.

Commentary

Traders face a busy macro landscape as U.S. central bank independence comes under rare legal scrutiny: President Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has unsettled markets, weakening the dollar and steepening the Treasury curve as traders boost bets on a September rate cut 1. Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole reinforces expectations for policy easing, but the legal standoff over the Fed’s leadership adds a new layer of uncertainty for rates and risk assets ahead of key U.S. data releases 21.

Trade policy risk is again in focus. Trump’s threats of new tariffs and sanctions against both the EU and China—particularly on rare-earth magnets—raise the potential for renewed disruptions in tech and manufacturing supply chains 35. China’s decision to send its top negotiator to Washington signals a willingness to engage, but the agenda remains unsettled 4. Meanwhile, Germany and Canada’s move to deepen critical minerals cooperation highlights the global push to diversify away from Chinese supply dominance 13.

Energy markets are responding to geopolitical shocks: Brent crude climbed on news of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, amplifying supply concerns despite subdued hedge fund positioning and OPEC+ output caps 6. In Europe, French assets are under pressure as a government confidence vote looms, widening spreads over German Bunds and raising the risk of further volatility in eurozone markets 11.

Digital assets remain volatile, with Bitcoin ’s sharp drop and $900M in liquidations reflecting both shifting Fed expectations and broader risk-off sentiment 18. Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying, with calls for tighter oversight of tokenised stocks and new ETF filings (such as Bitwise’s Chainlink product) signaling ongoing institutional interest but also headline risk 1719.

Traders should monitor U.S. legal developments around the Fed, upcoming payroll and inflation data, and the September FOMC for monetary direction 12. Stay alert to trade and supply chain headlines, French political risk, and regulatory moves in both traditional and digital assets.

TL;DR

Trump doubles India tariffs; Powell signals rate cut, lifting Asian stocks; Ukraine hits Russian refineries.

Highlights

• Trump administration doubles U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 50%1; Indian rupee near record lows despite Fed rate-cut signals20.
• Swiss Post suspends U.S. shipments following a 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss goods18; Bern seeks tariff relief.
• Fed Chair Powell signals possible September rate cut3; Asian equities rally, Nikkei tops 43,000, CSI 300 near 2022 highs314.
• PBOC sharply strengthens yuan fixing2; China stock turnover hits second-highest ever14.
• Apple moves all iPhone 17 production to India, furthering supply-chain diversification away from China6.
• TSMC removes Chinese equipment from 2nm chip lines due to U.S. export-control risks7.
• Ukraine drone strikes knock 10–15% of Russia’s refining offline5; Druzhba oil flows to Slovakia disrupted but may resume soon8.
• Israel strikes Houthi sites in Yemen4 and Gaza’s Nasser Hospital9; Iran resumes nuclear talks with European powers10.
• Bitcoin drops below $111,000 after large whale sale and ETF outflows13; Ethereum outperforms13.
• Dongfeng Motor surges 69% on parent’s $7.1B take-private and EV spin-off plan15; Turkey to end short-selling ban19.
• UniCredit raises Commerzbank stake to 26%, targeting 29%, signaling European banking consolidation16.
• Vietnam accelerates island-building in the South China Sea11; U.S. and Indonesia launch largest-ever Super Garuda Shield drills12.

Commentary

Markets are responding to a mix of monetary easing signals and rising trade and geopolitical frictions. Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole have boosted risk appetite in Asia, with the Nikkei and CSI 300 both pushing toward multi-year highs314. However, U.S. protectionism remains in focus: the doubling of tariffs on Indian goods1 and a 39% tariff on Swiss imports18 are weighing on the rupee 20 and prompting operational disruptions, as seen with Swiss Post suspending U.S. shipments18. These moves highlight the risk of further trade retaliation and supply-chain adjustments.

Currency markets are active. The PBOC’s stronger-than-expected yuan fixing has supported CNY and CNH 2, while the rupee remains under pressure despite softer U.S. yields20. Apple ’s full shift of iPhone 17 production to India6 and TSMC ’s removal of Chinese equipment from advanced chip lines7 underline the ongoing realignment of global manufacturing and tech supply chains in response to tariffs and export controls.

Energy and commodities are volatile. Ukraine’s drone campaign has knocked out up to 15% of Russia’s refining capacity5, causing fuel shortages and temporarily halting Druzhba pipeline flows to Slovakia and Hungary8. Gold remains supported by lower U.S. yields and persistent geopolitical risks, including Israeli strikes in Yemen4 and Gaza9, and renewed Iran-EU nuclear talks10.

In crypto, Bitcoin fell sharply below $111,000 after a major whale sale and continued ETF outflows13, while Ethereum saw inflows and record futures open interest13, pointing to a shift in institutional positioning. Equity-specific moves include Dongfeng Motor’s surge on a take-private/EV spin-off plan15 and UniCredit’s steady accumulation of Commerzbank shares16, reflecting ongoing sector consolidation in Europe.

Key risks to monitor: further escalation in trade measures (especially U.S.-India/Switzerland)118, follow-through on Fed policy3, energy supply disruptions58, and any sharp moves in EM or tech-linked currencies as global supply chains continue to shift.

TL;DR

Ukraine hits Russian energy, Fed signals rate cut, U.S. tariffs disrupt India/EU trade and coffee.

Highlights

• Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit Russia’s Kursk nuclear plant and Novatek’s Ust-Luga terminal; Druzhba oil pipeline flows to Hungary and Slovakia halted for at least five days 12.
• Pentagon blocks Ukraine from using U.S.-made long-range missiles inside Russia, reversing late-2024 policy 5.
• U.S.–India trade tensions escalate: U.S. to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50% from 27 August; India Post halts most U.S.-bound parcels; economists warn of nearly 1% hit to Indian GDP 615.
• DHL and multiple European and Indian postal operators suspend U.S.-bound parcels ahead of new U.S. tariff rules eliminating the $800 de minimis exemption and imposing 15% duties on most EU imports 15.
• Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% in Q2, with capital investment down 1.4%; policymakers warn of stagnation through 2025 amid U.S. trade friction 17.
• Fed Chair Powell signals possible September rate cut, citing labor market risks and tariff-driven inflation; equities and risk assets rally, yields and dollar fall 18.
• Nvidia shares drop 3.5% as China restricts H20 AI chip sales and pushes for domestic chip self-sufficiency; Nvidia pauses H20 production 8.
• Country Garden, Vanke post multi-billion yuan losses; Evergrande faces delisting, deepening China property sector stress 9.
• North Korea fires new missiles and escalates rhetoric after DMZ incident, raising tensions ahead of Trump–Lee summit 3.
• Israel intensifies Gaza strikes, intercepts drones and missiles from Yemen; Iran’s Khamenei rules out direct U.S. talks 411.
• U.S. imposes 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, pushing arabica futures near record highs and raising U.S. retail prices 12.
• Ethereum sets new all-time high above $4,900; Grayscale and 21Shares file for first U.S. XRP ETFs 1320.

Commentary

Energy and trade disruptions are front and center for global markets. Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure have halted Druzhba pipeline flows to Hungary and Slovakia, underscoring the vulnerability of European energy supply chains and raising the risk of further volatility in regional oil and gas prices 12. The Pentagon’s decision to block Ukraine from using U.S. long-range missiles inside Russia signals a more cautious U.S. stance, which may limit escalation but could also constrain Ukraine’s ability to pressure Russian supply lines 5.

U.S. tariff actions are rippling through global trade. The doubling of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and the suspension of most U.S.-bound parcels by India Post and major European postal operators, in response to new U.S. customs rules, are set to disrupt supply chains and raise costs for retailers and consumers 615. Germany’s Q2 contraction, driven by weak capital investment and softer U.S. demand, highlights the economic drag from these trade tensions 17. The risk is for further weakness in European equities and the euro , while emerging-market assets with U.S. trade exposure may also come under pressure.

Fed Chair Powell’s clear signal of a possible September rate cut has boosted risk appetite, with equities rallying and yields falling 18. However, persistent tariff-driven inflation and supply shocks—such as the U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee sending arabica futures near record highs—could complicate the Fed’s path if price pressures persist 12. Watch for continued volatility in rates, FX, and commodities as markets weigh the Fed’s next move.

In Asia, China’s property sector remains under stress, with major developers posting large losses and Evergrande set for delisting 9. This continues to weigh on Chinese equities and EM credit sentiment. Nvidia ’s China-specific chip sales disruptions highlight ongoing U.S.–China tech decoupling risks, with possible spillovers to global tech supply chains 8.

Crypto markets are showing strong momentum, led by Ethereum ’s new all-time high and fresh ETF filings for XRP 1320. However, regulatory scrutiny remains a headwind, as seen with AUSTRAC’s audit order for Binance Australia 14.

TL;DR

Nvidia halts China chip sales; US-EU set 15% tariff cap, $750B energy deal; China tightens rare earths.

Highlights

• • Nvidia halts H20 AI chip production after China blocks purchases in response to US official's remarks 1.
• US and EU agree on a 15% tariff ceiling for most goods, $750B EU energy purchases from US, and expanded US market access; wine and spirits remain excluded 217.
• China issues 17-point rules to tighten rare earth production controls, reinforcing state quotas across the supply chain 3.
• Germany’s Q2 GDP revised down to -0.3%, confirming renewed recession risk; capital spending and exports both fell 6.
• Eurozone wage growth accelerates to 3.95% YoY, complicating ECB ’s rate-cut outlook 18.
• Japan’s Finance Ministry raises assumed bond rate to 2.6% for FY26/27, highest in 17 years, signaling higher debt costs 7.
• Pentagon launches $500M cobalt stockpile tender, prioritizing non-Chinese suppliers; follows US moves to secure critical minerals 8.
• Chevron resumes Venezuelan crude shipments to the US under a restricted Treasury license, after a three-month pause 9.
• UK and US tighten sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping networks, targeting revenue streams and shipping vessels 4.
• EU accelerates digital euro plans, considering Ethereum /Solana public blockchains after US stablecoin legislation 10.
• Kazakhstan orders oil majors to pay $4B pollution fine within 40 days, renewing tensions with foreign energy investors 12.
• Russian strikes hit US-owned Flex factory in Ukraine; no Putin–Zelensky summit planned as fighting intensifies 1520.

Commentary

US-China tech tensions have escalated with China’s informal ban on Nvidia ’s H20 chip, prompting Nvidia to halt production 1. This move highlights the fragility of global semiconductor supply chains and may pressure related tech equities, especially those with significant China exposure 1. It also adds momentum to China’s domestic chip development efforts, while US suppliers to Nvidia could see order disruptions 1.

The new US-EU trade framework lowers tariffs on most goods to 15% and unlocks major EU commitments to purchase US energy and AI chips, supporting US LNG, energy, and semiconductor sectors 2. However, unresolved issues in wine, spirits, and metals persist, and the $1-per-drink tariff impact could dent European exporters’ margins 217. At the same time, Germany’s deeper GDP contraction and accelerating eurozone wage growth complicate the ECB ’s policy path, potentially delaying further rate cuts and keeping European yields elevated 618.

On the commodities front, China’s tighter rare earth controls and the Pentagon’s cobalt stockpiling signal strategic moves to secure critical mineral supply chains 38. This could support prices for non-Chinese rare earth and cobalt producers 38. Chevron ’s limited resumption of Venezuelan crude shipments offers modest relief to US refiners, but broader oil flows remain constrained by ongoing sanctions and geopolitical frictions, including new UK/US measures against Iran and Kazakhstan’s renewed pressure on foreign oil majors 4912.

Japan’s move to raise the assumed bond rate reflects rising funding costs and fiscal strain as JGB yields climb 7. Currency markets may see continued volatility: the euro faces mixed signals from wage growth and weak German data, while the yen remains under pressure from higher Japanese yields 6718. Crypto traders should watch the EU’s digital euro initiative, which could boost public blockchain adoption if implemented 10.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with intensified Russian strikes in Ukraine and no progress on ceasefire talks 1520. Traders should monitor further developments in US-China tech policy, eurozone inflation data, and commodity supply chain disruptions.

TL;DR

US-EU trade deal cuts tariffs; global tech stocks tumble; UK inflation jumps, sterling rallies.

Highlights

• US and EU finalize trade pact: US caps most tariffs on European imports at 15%; EU drops tariffs on US industrial goods, commits to $750B in US energy purchases and $600B in US investments1.
• Nasdaq 100 falls 3% in two sessions, led by a 3.5% drop in Nvidia ; tech selloff spreads to Asia and Europe amid AI skepticism and MIT study questioning AI profitability7.
• UK July inflation rises to 3.8% YoY, above expectations; sterling strengthens as markets reduce near-term BoE rate cut bets8.
• Eurozone flash PMI hits 15-month high (51.1), led by German manufacturing rebound; services and employment lag9.
• Russia launches large-scale drone and missile strikes on western Ukraine, damaging Flex US-owned electronics plant and energy sites; Ukraine hits Russian oil refinery, disrupting Russian fuel exports3.
• Israel approves Gaza City offensive, mobilizes 60,000 reservists as cease-fire talks stall; regional tensions increase2.
• Chinese regulators move to restrict Nvidia H20 AI chip purchases after US remarks; Chinese tech firms accelerate shift to domestic AI chips5.
• Microsoft cuts Chinese firms from early cyber-flaw access amid US defense review; tighter controls on tech exports6.
• Boeing in talks to sell up to 500 jets to China; shares rise 2.6%. Separately, 3,000 Airbus UK workers plan 10-day strike, threatening global wing production1213.
• Codelco cuts 2025 copper output by 33,000 tons after fatal El Teniente mine accident; projects $350M loss14.
• PBOC to issue ¥45.4B in Hong Kong bills as offshore renminbi bond issuance reaches record pace10.
• BlackRock sells $493M in Bitcoin and Ether amid ETF outflows; UK sanctions two crypto exchanges linked to Russia1918.

Commentary

The US-EU trade agreement marks a significant shift in transatlantic trade, with tariff reductions poised to benefit US and European industrials, autos, semiconductors, and energy1. The EU’s commitment to large-scale US energy purchases and investments could support US energy equities and the dollar 1, while improved market access may boost select European exporters. The deal’s provisions on digital trade and future negotiations on steel, aluminum, and rules of origin are worth monitoring for sector-specific impacts1.

Tech sector volatility remains in focus as the Nasdaq 100’s sharp drop, led by Nvidia , spreads globally. The selloff is driven by skepticism over AI profitability, highlighted by new research and regulatory headwinds in China7. Chinese authorities’ moves to restrict Nvidia H20 chip purchases5 and Microsoft ’s curbs on Chinese access to cyber-flaw data6 signal further tightening of US-China tech relations, with implications for global supply chains and semiconductor stocks. Asian and European tech shares are under pressure, and further regulatory developments could exacerbate volatility7.

Macro data show diverging inflation and growth trends. UK inflation’s upside surprise is forcing markets to reassess the Bank of England’s rate path, strengthening sterling and weighing on rate-sensitive assets8. In contrast, the eurozone’s PMI rebound, led by German manufacturing, suggests tentative recovery, though services and employment remain soft9. The PBOC’s large offshore bill issuance and record “dim sum” bond activity reflect sustained demand for renminbi assets amid China’s ongoing capital market reforms10.

Geopolitical risk is elevated. Russia’s drone and missile barrage on Ukraine, including damage to a US-owned plant (Flex ), and Ukraine’s retaliatory refinery strike, highlight persistent energy and supply chain risks3. Israel’s mobilization for a Gaza City offensive adds to regional uncertainty2. In commodities, Codelco’s copper output cut tightens supply14, while Boeing ’s potential China deal and Airbus strike risk may disrupt global aerospace supply chains1213. BlackRock’s crypto sales and UK sanctions on Russia-linked exchanges underscore volatility and regulatory pressure in digital assets1918.

TL;DR

Nvidia-led tech selloff hits global equities; US expands tariffs; UK inflation complicates BoE policy.

Highlights

• Nvidia ’s 3.5% drop sparked a global tech selloff; Nikkei fell 1.5%, SoftBank tumbled up to 9%320.
• Bank Indonesia and RBNZ cut rates unexpectedly, citing weak growth; NZD and IDR weakened, local bonds rallied45.
• UK inflation rose to 3.8%, above consensus and G7 peers, complicating BoE’s easing outlook; sterling edged higher6.
• China held loan prime rates steady for a third month despite weak data, favoring targeted support7.
• US imposed 50% tariffs on 400+ steel/aluminum products and expanded Xinjiang forced-labor import bans89.
• Japan’s exports fell for a third month, led by a 28% drop in US-bound autos due to tariffs11.
• China pressed solar firms to cut overcapacity and end price wars; major sector restructuring is underway10.
• Kenya is negotiating a $5B debt swap into yuan as China considers yuan-backed stablecoins to boost RMB’s global role12.
• Bitcoin fell below $113,000, triggering $559M in liquidations; crypto and equities pressured by rising US yields13.
• Geopolitical risks: Russian drone exploded in Poland (first such incident)2, Israel readies Gaza offensive15, Iran unveils advanced missiles14, North Korea orders rapid nuclear expansion16.
• Russia pledged uninterrupted oil trade with India as new US tariffs target Indian goods; 90% of bilateral trade now in rupees/roubles 18.
• Putin agreed to next phase of Ukraine peace talks, including a possible direct meeting with Zelensky19.

Commentary

A sharp reversal in global tech stocks—triggered by Nvidia ’s decline—has spread across US and Asian markets, hitting chipmakers and tech conglomerates particularly hard320. Risk aversion is rising ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders reassessing the likelihood of US rate cuts amid persistent inflation, as seen in the UK’s upside surprise6. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on both equities and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin ’s slide and forced liquidations highlighting a broader reduction in risk appetite13.

Monetary policy divergence is becoming more pronounced. Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand both surprised with rate cuts to support growth, weakening their currencies (IDR , NZD ) and boosting local bonds45. However, further easing could be limited if capital outflows accelerate. In contrast, China is maintaining steady policy rates despite softening economic data, opting for targeted sector support—most notably in solar, where authorities are pushing for consolidation to address severe overcapacity710.

Trade tensions remain a key headwind. The US has expanded tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a wide range of finished goods, while also tightening forced-labor import bans89. These measures are impacting supply chains in Asia and Europe, with Japan’s auto exports to the US particularly affected11. The eurozone is feeling the aftershocks as well, with ECB President Lagarde noting that growth is cooling as the effects of pre-tariff stockpiling fade17. Meanwhile, Kenya’s proposed yuan debt swap and China’s potential move toward yuan-backed stablecoins underscore ongoing efforts to diversify away from the dollar in global finance12.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The Russian drone incident in Poland2, Israel’s Gaza mobilization15, Iran’s missile escalation14, and North Korea’s nuclear expansion16 all add to market uncertainty. Russia’s assurance of continued oil trade with India, despite new US tariffs, highlights the ongoing fragmentation of global trade flows and payment systems18. The next phase of Ukraine peace talks, if productive, could offer a modest reduction in regional risk, but headline sensitivity remains high19.

Traders should monitor Jackson Hole for US rate signals, watch for further volatility in tech and crypto, and remain alert to trade and geopolitical developments that could trigger further market moves.

TL;DR

Ukraine peace talks stall; Russian refinery outages lift fuel prices; PBOC strengthens yuan again.

Highlights

• Trump, Zelenskyy, and EU leaders met in Washington to accelerate Ukraine peace talks; no breakthrough yet, but further discussions planned 1.
• Russia warns NATO troop deployment in Ukraine would risk escalation; labels UK suggestions "provocative" 2.
• Drone strikes force three major Russian refineries offline, pushing Russian gasoline prices to record highs and tightening domestic supply 5.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to raise tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil imports; India has not responded 17.
• China lifts rare-earth magnet export curbs on India, easing near-term supply risk for Indian manufacturers 3.
• U.S. extends chip export controls: Nvidia must obtain a license for any new products sold to China 4.
• PBOC sets yuan fix much stronger than market estimates for second day, reinforcing efforts to support the currency 8.
• Shanghai Composite hits highest since 2015 on strong turnover and capital inflows; rare earth stocks rally 13.
• Japan’s 20-year government bond yield rises after a soft auction; BOJ faces calls to hike rates as Asian long yields climb 9.
• Hong Kong dollar strengthens past 7.80 as HIBOR rises, narrowing US rate gap; property sector faces refinancing risk 10.
• SoftBank acquires just under 2% of Intel for $2B, supporting Intel ’s capital needs and AI push 12.
• South Korea orders crypto exchanges to halt lending services pending new regulations 16.

Commentary

Geopolitics remain a key market driver. Ukraine peace talks in Washington brought together U.S., European, and Ukrainian leaders, but produced no concrete progress 1. Russia’s warnings against NATO troop deployments and ongoing hostilities—including deadly Russian airstrikes—underscore persistent risk of escalation 2. Meanwhile, the U.S. is set to raise tariffs on Indian goods in response to India’s Russian oil imports, adding to global trade tensions 17 even as China moves to ease rare-earth supply constraints for India 3.

Commodity and currency markets are reacting to these cross-currents. Drone attacks have shut several major Russian refineries, sending domestic gasoline prices to record highs and highlighting supply vulnerabilities 5. In FX, the PBOC’s stronger-than-expected yuan fixings for a second day signal a clear attempt to counter depreciation pressure 8, while the Shanghai Composite’s multi-year highs and rare earth stock rally reflect improved sentiment and capital inflows 13. The Hong Kong dollar’s move past 7.80, driven by higher HIBOR, narrows the US rate gap but raises refinancing risks for the city’s leveraged property sector 10.

In rates, Japan’s weak 20-year bond auction and rising yields across Asia show shifting expectations for monetary policy 9. BOJ faces renewed calls to hike rates to support the yen, while Asian long yields are moving higher in tandem. On the tech front, the U.S. is tightening chip export controls, requiring Nvidia to obtain licenses for new products sold to China 4. SoftBank’s $2B Intel stake provides capital for Intel ’s manufacturing and AI ambitions, as the global semiconductor landscape continues to evolve 12.

Regulatory scrutiny is also in focus: South Korea’s order to halt crypto lending highlights ongoing efforts to tighten oversight in digital assets 16. Overall, traders should monitor Ukraine diplomacy, Russian energy infrastructure, Asian FX and rates, and regulatory actions in tech and crypto for cross-asset implications.