TL;DR

China GDP beats, U.S.-EU/Russia tariff threats escalate, Nvidia resumes China chip sales.

Highlights

• China Q2 GDP grew 5.2% y/y, beating forecasts; industrial output strong, property sector weak 1.
• China restricts exports of battery cathode and lithium extraction tech, tightening EV supply chain controls 4.
• Nvidia receives U.S. approval to resume H20 AI chip sales in China; shares and sector rally 3.
• Trump threatens 30% tariffs on EU imports by August 1; EU pauses countermeasures, talks ongoing 26.
• U.S. threatens 100% tariffs on Russian imports (and secondary sanctions) if no Ukraine ceasefire in 50 days 9.
• EU close to 18th Russia sanctions package; France, UK, Germany warn of possible UN snapback sanctions on Iran 78.
• U.S. Commerce opens Section 232 probes into drone and polysilicon imports, targeting China’s market share 5.
• Japanese investors increase U.S. Treasury purchases as long yields approach 5%; global bond liquidity remains thin 11.
• Japan’s defense white paper labels China its top strategic challenge; regional military tensions highlighted 13.
• India-China diplomatic thaw signaled after Jaishankar-Xi meeting, but trade and border frictions persist 12.
• Drone strike shuts Kurdistan’s Sarsang oilfield, raising regional energy supply concerns 10.
• Bitcoin hits record $123,000 as U.S. “Crypto Week” starts; Standard Chartered launches institutional BTC/ETH spot trading in UK 2019.

Commentary

China’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, driven by strong industrial production and resilient exports outside the U.S., but domestic demand remains hampered by a deepening property slump 1. The government’s fresh export controls on battery and lithium technologies 4 will likely complicate global EV and battery supply chains, especially for non-Chinese automakers and materials producers 4. This move underscores China’s intent to preserve its technological edge in critical sectors 4.

Trade tensions are escalating on multiple fronts. The U.S. is threatening steep tariffs on both EU and Russian imports 29, with the EU preparing but pausing retaliatory measures pending talks 6. The risk of a transatlantic trade war and tighter sanctions on Russia—potentially extending to secondary sanctions—could disrupt global trade flows, increase volatility in European assets, and impact commodity markets, particularly energy 279. Section 232 probes into Chinese drone and polysilicon imports further signal a U.S. push to shield strategic industries 5.

In tech, Nvidia ’s restored access to the Chinese AI chip market is a clear positive for the semiconductor sector, reflected in a rally across related equities 3. However, China’s new export restrictions may prompt Western firms to accelerate investment in alternative supply chains and domestic innovation, particularly in EV and battery technologies 4.

Fixed income markets saw Japanese investors ramp up U.S. Treasury buying as long yields approached 5%, reflecting ongoing global demand for yield even as liquidity remains thin and volatility risk elevated 11. Regional security concerns remain in focus, with Japan’s defense white paper highlighting China as its main strategic challenge 13 and a drone strike disrupting Kurdish oil production 10, both of which could influence risk sentiment and energy prices 10.

Crypto markets continue to attract institutional flows, with Bitcoin reaching record highs amid supportive U.S. legislative developments 20 and Standard Chartered (via its UK branch) launching institutional spot trading 19. The sector’s rising integration with mainstream finance is reducing volatility and broadening its appeal as a portfolio diversifier 20.

TL;DR

Trump tariff threat hits EU, US arms Ukraine, S&P 500 narrows, Bitcoin surges above $122K.

Highlights

• Trump threatens 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports from Aug 1; European stocks and US futures fall, autos hit hardest 13.
• EU keeps retaliatory tariffs suspended but prepares €21B countermeasures; Germany and France warn of export risks 37.
• US considers record arms and long-range missiles for Ukraine; bipartisan push for 500% tariffs on Russian energy buyers 46.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte in Washington for Ukraine arms talks; US policy announcement on Russia expected 5.
• China exits deflation as June CPI rises 0.1% YoY; exports beat forecasts, but PPI deflation persists 2.
• South Korea’s exports rebound 4.3% on record chip sales; US/China demand weak, tariff risks remain 15.
• S&P 500 market breadth at 20-year low; mega-cap techs drive gains, US equity valuations stretched, retail inflows at record highs 19.
• Bitcoin breaks above $122,000 on ETF demand; $1B in shorts liquidated ahead of US ‘Crypto Week’ 18.
• Macron accelerates French defense spending to €64B by 2027, citing Russia and security autonomy 8.
• Middle East: Turkish Airlines suspends flights to Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon; Syria sees deadly clashes and Israeli airstrikes 1113.
• DP World signs $800M deal to upgrade Syrian ports after US sanctions ease 14.
• White House questions $2.5B Fed HQ renovation; Trump team signals legal review of Powell’s position 20.
• Iran nuclear talks with US remain unscheduled; Tehran accuses Israel of shaping US stance 910.

Commentary

Trade and geopolitical risk are front and center as Trump’s 30% tariff threat on EU and Mexican imports triggers declines in European equities, especially autos, and weighs on US futures 13. The EU’s decision to keep retaliatory tariffs suspended signals a preference for negotiation, but with €21B in countermeasures ready and German/French leaders warning of export pain, the risk of a disruptive trade escalation is real 37. This environment will likely drive sector rotation, with exporters and cyclicals under pressure, and may support defensive assets if talks stall.

US policy toward Russia and Ukraine is also shifting. Washington is preparing record arms shipments, including potential long-range missiles for Ukraine, while bipartisan support grows for 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy 46. NATO Secretary General Rutte is in Washington for talks, and a major US announcement on Russia is expected 5. Defense and energy sectors could see renewed interest, while further sanctions risk complicates commodity flows and emerging market exposures.

China’s end to deflation and stronger-than-expected exports provide a modest positive for global demand, but persistent PPI deflation and weak US/China demand for Korean goods highlight ongoing supply chain and trade headwinds 215. South Korea’s export rebound is driven by semiconductors, but tariff uncertainty remains a drag for regional manufacturers 15.

US equity markets remain highly concentrated, with the S&P 500 ’s rally driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks and record retail inflows. Valuations are stretched, and breadth is at a two-decade low, raising fragility if leadership falters 19. Crypto markets are strong, with Bitcoin surging above $122,000 on ETF inflows and ahead of key US regulatory discussions 18.

Elsewhere, Middle East instability is underscored by Turkish Airlines’ flight suspensions and renewed violence in Syria, while easing US sanctions enable new foreign investment in Syrian infrastructure 111314. The White House’s scrutiny of the Fed’s renovation and Powell’s position adds another layer of policy uncertainty as legal and political risks to central bank independence rise 20. Iran nuclear talks remain stalled, keeping regional risk elevated 910.

TL;DR

U.S. imposes sweeping tariffs on EU, Mexico, Brazil; Bitcoin hits $118K; Red Sea shipping risk rises.

Highlights

• Trump administration imposes 30% tariffs on all EU and Mexican imports and 50% on Brazilian goods from Aug. 1; EU and Brazil threaten countermeasures, Canada given deadline to avoid 35% tariffs 123.
• China condemns U.S. tariffs on Brazil, warning of increased global trade friction, and notes potential 10% U.S. surcharge on other BRICS members 9.
• Red Sea shipping risk rises as vessels signal non-Israeli ties to avoid Houthi attacks; insurance costs and disruptions escalate 10.
• North Korea pledges “unconditional” support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, reportedly supplying millions of shells and up to 30,000 troops; Russia and North Korea warn U.S., South Korea, and Japan against forming a security alliance 41819.
• Ukraine and Russia intensify drone and missile attacks, with record barrages and mounting civilian and infrastructure casualties 7.
• Israeli strikes kill at least 66 in Gaza, including 27 awaiting aid; ceasefire talks remain stalled amid international legal scrutiny 8.
• Bitcoin hits a record above $118,000 as U.S. spot ETFs see $1.2 billion in inflows; Ether rallies above $3,000, triggering major short liquidations 11.
• Silver surges to $38/oz, highest since 2011; gold also firmer, but mining equities lag 12.
• Tether to discontinue USDT support on five blockchains by September, urging users to migrate to supported networks 13.
• Huawei develops a new flexible AI chip to compete with Nvidia in China and expand into overseas markets 14.
• EU drops digital tax targeting U.S. tech firms, proposes a broader levy on large companies, reducing immediate transatlantic trade friction 15.
• India announces incentives for domestic rare-earth magnet production as China tightens export controls; U.S. boosts investment in domestic supply chains 17.

Commentary

The U.S. administration’s sweeping new tariffs on EU, Mexican, and Brazilian imports—alongside threats against Canada—signal a major escalation in global trade tensions 123. With the EU and Brazil preparing countermeasures and China voicing strong opposition, traders should expect volatility in sectors exposed to transatlantic and Latin American trade, especially consumer staples and industrials reliant on imported inputs 129. Inflationary pressures may rise in the U.S. as higher import costs feed through, complicating the outlook for rates and the dollar 1. Canadian and Mexican exporters face renewed uncertainty, while the threat of wider BRICS retaliation adds another layer of risk 39.

Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea are again in focus, with insurance premiums rising and vessel transits down sharply as Houthi attacks resume 10. This compounds global supply chain stress and could impact energy and commodity flows, particularly if disruptions persist or escalate 10.

Geopolitical risk continues to intensify. North Korea’s deepening military support for Russia—including artillery, ammunition, and troop deployments—marks a significant shift in the Ukraine conflict’s dynamics and raises the stakes for Western sanctions policy 41819. The U.S. push for clearer commitments from Japan and Australia on Taiwan, and Russia’s warnings against new security alliances, add to regional uncertainty in Asia-Pacific 619. Meanwhile, ongoing violence in Gaza and stalling ceasefire talks keep Middle East risk elevated 8.

In markets, Bitcoin and Ether are outperforming on the back of strong ETF inflows and short-covering, while silver’s breakout to decade highs reflects both safe-haven demand and supply concerns 1112. Tether ’s network changes may shift liquidity across crypto venues 13. The EU’s decision to drop a digital tax on U.S. tech firms removes a near-term trade irritant, but broader corporate levies remain under discussion 15. India’s push to localize rare-earth magnet production and the U.S. investment in domestic supply chains highlight ongoing efforts to reduce dependence on China in critical sectors 17.

TL;DR

US hikes tariffs on Canada and Brazil; Bitcoin surges on ETF inflows; gold rallies on trade risk.

Highlights

• US to impose 35% tariff on all Canadian imports from Aug. 1; Canadian dollar drops, USMCA stability questioned 1.
• US enacts 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports; Brazil threatens reciprocal duties, commodity markets react 2.
• PBOC advisers urge 1.5 trillion yuan ($209B) stimulus to offset US tariffs and weak demand in China 3.
• European Commission proposes floating price cap on Russian oil amid G7 split; Russian LNG exports to EU fall 22% YoY 4.
• OPEC+ denies talks of pausing planned oil output increases, maintaining current supply plan 5.
• Houthi attacks sink two Greek ships in Red Sea, doubling insurance premiums and raising shipping risks 6.
• UK GDP contracts 0.1% in May, extending two-month decline; BoE rate cut expectations rise 7.
• Bitcoin hits $118,000 on $2.4B short squeeze; US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $1.2B inflows; Ethereum ETFs also attract strong demand 89.
• US Treasury drops crypto broker reporting rules; Shanghai regulator studies stablecoin policy, signaling possible shift in China 1211.
• Gold climbs to $3,337/oz as haven demand rises on trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations 10.
• ECB’s Schnabel signals little prospect of further rate cuts; DAX reaches record high on soft inflation 1314.
• China finds BYD and Chery wrongly took $53M in EV subsidies, adding pressure to the sector 15.

Commentary

Trade policy is the primary driver today, with the US escalating tariffs against Canada (35%) 1 and Brazil (50%) 2, and signaling broader tariffs for other partners. The Canadian dollar weakened on the announcement 1, and Brazil’s threat of reciprocal duties has rattled commodity markets, particularly coffee and orange juice 2. These moves risk renewed supply chain disruptions and put the stability of the USMCA under scrutiny, with potential spillover to North American equities, FX, and commodities 12.

China faces mounting pressure from earlier US tariffs, prompting PBOC advisers to call for a significant stimulus package 3. While a Trump–Xi summit is described as likely by US officials, no date is set, and trade frictions remain elevated 19. Meanwhile, the regulatory environment for digital assets is shifting: the US Treasury’s rollback of crypto broker reporting rules 12 and Shanghai’s review of stablecoin policies 11 have supported strong inflows into crypto ETFs and contributed to Bitcoin ’s surge above $118,000 89.

Energy markets remain volatile. OPEC+ is maintaining its output increase schedule 5, while the EU’s proposal for a floating Russian oil price cap and renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are pushing up shipping costs and insurance premiums 46. These developments are likely to keep energy and freight prices firm, supporting gold ’s rally as investors hedge against geopolitical and economic risks 10.

European equities are buoyed by soft inflation and ECB signals that further rate cuts are unlikely, with the DAX reaching new highs 1314. In contrast, the UK’s two-month GDP contraction is fueling expectations of a BoE rate cut and keeping the pound under pressure 7. In China, the clampdown on improper EV subsidies adds further stress to an already competitive auto sector 15.

Traders should monitor further tariff developments, central bank signals, and ongoing volatility in commodities and crypto. Defensive positioning in gold and selective exposure to European equities may be prudent amid rising global trade and geopolitical risks.

TL;DR

Trump’s copper tariffs drive record prices; Houthi attacks lift oil; TSMC, Bitcoin hit new highs.

Highlights

• Trump imposes 50% tariffs on all U.S. copper imports from August, sending copper futures to record highs; Brazil faces matching 50% tariffs, sparking a >2% drop in the real and emergency talks in Brasília 1.
• U.S. expands tariffs (20–30%) to exports from the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, with further escalation possible 4.
• Japanese automakers cut U.S. export prices by 20% in May to absorb new tariffs, pressuring margins and raising prospects for more U.S. production 7.
• Houthi militants sink a Greek bulk carrier off Yemen, killing four and disrupting Red Sea shipping; Brent crude rises to a two-week high 3.
• OPEC lowers medium-term oil demand forecasts on China slowdown and EV adoption but maintains long-term demand growth outlook through 2050 5.
• TSMC Q2 revenue jumps 39% on AI chip demand, beating estimates; full earnings and guidance due July 17 10.
• Nvidia CEO to visit Beijing ahead of September launch of China-specific AI chip, seeking to maintain market share amid export controls 11.
• Bitcoin sets new record above $112,000; BlackRock’s IBIT now third-largest ETF in lineup as spot bitcoin ETF inflows top $50B 620.
• Chinese real estate developers rally sharply on speculation of new state support measures; Hang Seng property gauge posts nine-month high 18.
• Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.5% amid Seoul housing surge and external risks; further cuts possible if leverage cools 8.
• NATO adopts 5% GDP defense spending goal, citing Trump’s influence; European defense budgets and procurement set to rise 9.
• Russia escalates Ukraine conflict with record drone attack and $50B in asset seizures to fund military spending; European agencies warn of increased Russian sabotage activity 21516.

Commentary

Trade tensions remain a central risk for global markets. The U.S. move to impose 50% tariffs on copper and Brazilian imports has driven copper futures to record levels and pressured EM currencies, notably the Brazilian real 1. The broader tariff campaign—now targeting multiple smaller economies—adds uncertainty to global supply chains and could prompt further retaliatory measures 4. Japanese automakers’ decision to absorb tariffs through sharp price cuts highlights the margin pressure facing exporters and the potential for accelerated onshoring of production 7.

Commodity and energy markets are being shaped by both supply disruptions and shifting demand outlooks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have sunk another commercial vessel, reducing shipping activity through a key global corridor and lifting Brent crude prices 3. OPEC’s downward revision of near-term oil demand, citing China’s slowdown and EV adoption, contrasts with its long-term bullishness, reinforcing a mixed outlook for energy equities and related assets 5.

Tech and crypto remain in focus. TSMC ’s strong quarter on AI chip demand and Nvidia ’s upcoming China-specific product launch underscore the ongoing strength in the semiconductor and AI space, even as U.S.-China tech tensions persist 1011. Bitcoin ’s new all-time high and surging ETF inflows point to continued institutional adoption, though regulatory scrutiny of tokenized securities could temper some enthusiasm 61920.

In Asia, China’s property sector saw a sharp rally on expectations of imminent policy support, while the Bank of Korea’s rate hold reflects a balancing act between a housing boom and external trade threats 818. In Europe, NATO’s new 5% defense spending goal signals a significant ramp-up in military budgets, likely to benefit defense contractors amid ongoing geopolitical risks, including Russia’s intensified actions in Ukraine and increased sabotage activity across the continent 291516.

Traders should closely monitor further U.S. tariff announcements, Red Sea shipping developments, OPEC demand commentary, tech sector earnings (TSMC July 17), and policy signals from Beijing on real estate. Defensive positioning in EM FX and supply chain-sensitive sectors may be warranted, while selective exposure to AI/tech, energy, and defense could benefit from current trends.

TL;DR

U.S. imposes 50% copper tariffs, copper hits record; U.S.-EU near 10% tariff pact; Red Sea shipping risk rises.

Highlights

• Trump imposes a 50% tariff on all U.S. copper imports, sending copper futures up 13% to record highs; 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals signaled, with a grace period 1.
• U.S. announces 25% tariffs on Japanese goods amid stalled rice market talks; Japan faces domestic pressure ahead of Upper House elections 2.
• U.S. threatens 200% tariffs on $2B of Australian pharmaceutical exports over drug pricing; Canberra seeks clarity 3.
• U.S. and EU near a temporary pact to cap most reciprocal tariffs at 10%, aiming to avoid broader escalation 4.
• Malaysia cuts policy rate by 25bps to 2.75%, citing U.S. tariff risks and subdued inflation 9.
• Houthi attacks sink two Greek-operated ships in the Red Sea, killing four crew; shipping risk premiums may rise 5.
• Russia launches a record 728-drone and 13-missile attack on Ukraine; U.S. resumes arms shipments, including Patriot missiles 610.
• Lithuania and Finland exit the Ottawa Convention to produce anti-personnel mines for Ukraine and domestic defense 11.
• China’s June CPI turns positive (+0.1% y/y), but PPI drops 3.6% y/y; 2025 GDP projected above 140 trillion yuan 1314.
• UAE warns global spare oil capacity is shrinking as OPEC+ supply hikes are absorbed by demand 12.
• Merck acquires Verona Pharma for $10B to expand its respiratory drug portfolio 16.
• Boeing June deliveries rise 27% to 60 jets as China reopens its market 15.

Commentary

Trade tensions remain the dominant theme, with the U.S. sharply escalating tariffs on copper, Japanese goods, and threatening pharmaceuticals from Australia 123. The copper tariff sent futures to all-time highs and lifted U.S. mining stocks such as Freeport-McMoRan , but downstream manufacturers and global supply chains face higher input costs and volatility 1. The pharma tariff threats, though delayed, create uncertainty for exporters in Australia and potentially other countries, adding pressure to healthcare equities 3.

The U.S.-EU provisional agreement to cap most tariffs at 10% provides some relief for transatlantic trade, but unresolved disputes in autos, steel, and agriculture mean headline risk persists 4. Japan and Australia are under pressure to defend domestic sectors as political timelines complicate negotiations 23. Malaysia’s rate cut is a direct response to external trade risks and subdued inflation, signaling that other EMs may follow with policy easing if trade headwinds intensify 9.

Geopolitical risk is elevated. Renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have sunk two ships and killed crew, likely pushing up insurance costs and freight rates, with shipping equities and oil markets sensitive to further disruptions 5. Russia’s record drone and missile barrage on Ukraine, and the U.S. resumption of arms shipments, keep defense and safe-haven assets in focus 610. Lithuania and Finland’s exit from the landmine ban to supply Ukraine underscores rising NATO-Russia tensions 11.

China’s macro data remains mixed: consumer inflation has turned marginally positive, but persistent producer price deflation and external tariff pressures increase the likelihood of further policy support 1314. The UAE’s warning on shrinking spare oil capacity highlights ongoing supply-side risks for energy markets 12. In corporate news, Merck ’s $10B acquisition of Verona Pharma and Boeing ’s rebound in deliveries as China reopens both support sector sentiment 1516.

Traders should monitor copper and oil price moves, Asian FX and rates, and ongoing trade negotiations for signs of escalation or relief. Exporters in Japan, Australia, and Malaysia face continued headline risk, while U.S. miners, defense, and select industrials may benefit from current policy trends 12391011.

TL;DR

U.S. sets 25% tariffs on Japan/Korea; China, Germany warn; EU readies harsh Russia sanctions.

Highlights

• Trump to impose 25% tariffs on all Japanese and South Korean imports from Aug. 1; Japan rejects auto duties, S&P 500 falls ~1%117.
• China warns of retaliation if U.S. revives steep tariffs in August; truce at risk2.
• German exports drop 1.4% in May, with U.S.-bound shipments at a three-year low amid tariff uncertainty7.
• EU preparing toughest Russia sanctions since 2022, targeting oil revenues and intermediaries, coordinated with U.S. Senate4.
• Russia launches large-scale Zaporizhzhia offensive, advances in Donetsk; Ukraine signals six-month window without new aid5.
• Houthi attacks sink and disable bulk carriers in Red Sea; Israel strikes Yemeni ports, raising shipping risk3.
• RBA holds rates at 3.85% in split vote; AUD jumps, bonds fall, equities slip6.
• Cairo telecom hub fire disrupts Egypt’s internet, halts stock exchange; recovery expected within 24 hours8.
• Ingram Micro ransomware attack disrupts global tech supply chains and order fulfillment9.
• EU regulator investigates Robinhood ’s tokenized OpenAI and SpaceX shares for compliance after OpenAI objections10.
• Dubai approves first tokenized money market fund; Pakistan establishes independent crypto regulator1219.
• UK set to miss U.S. steel tariff deal deadline, risking 25–50% tariffs on metals exports18.

Commentary

Trade policy is a central risk driver this week. The U.S. move to impose 25% tariffs on all Japanese and South Korean imports from August, with the S&P 500 reacting negatively, signals a renewed escalation in global trade tensions1. Japan’s refusal to accept auto tariffs17 and China’s warning of retaliation if U.S. duties on Chinese goods are reinstated in August both point to a deteriorating trade environment2. German May export data, showing a 1.4% drop and a sharp decline in U.S.-bound shipments, highlights the direct impact of tariff uncertainty on global supply chains and export-driven economies7.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The EU is coordinating its harshest sanctions on Russia since 2022, targeting oil revenues and intermediaries, just as Russia intensifies its offensive in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions45. Ukraine’s warning that it may only hold out for six more months without increased Western support adds urgency to the situation5. In the Middle East, renewed Houthi attacks have sunk and disabled bulk carriers in the Red Sea, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni ports and raising the risk profile for global shipping and insurance markets3.

Monetary policy and operational disruptions are also in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise rate hold, despite expectations for a cut, pushed the AUD higher and weighed on bonds and equities6. In Egypt, a major telecom fire temporarily halted stock trading and disrupted digital transactions, though a near-term recovery is expected8. Meanwhile, a ransomware attack on Ingram Micro is causing global supply chain delays in the tech sector, with some partners shifting orders to competitors9.

Digital asset regulation is advancing, with the EU probing Robinhood ’s tokenized equity products after OpenAI’s objections10, and Dubai and Pakistan moving forward with new frameworks for tokenized funds and crypto oversight1219. The UK’s likely failure to meet a U.S. deadline on steel tariffs leaves its metals sector facing elevated costs and ongoing uncertainty18.

Traders should monitor further developments in U.S. trade policy, EU-Russia sanctions, and Red Sea shipping security. Expect continued volatility in equities, especially in export and industrial sectors, and potential upward pressure on oil and shipping costs134. Currency and bond markets may respond to central bank decisions and geopolitical headlines68.

TL;DR

Trump mulls 50% EU tariffs; OPEC+ hikes output; Asian equities, oil, and tech slide on trade risks.

Highlights

• Trump administration weighs tariffs up to 50% on EU goods; 10% base tariff now set for August 1 12.
• China rejects U.S. tariff threats on BRICS nations; U.S.–China trade tensions persist 3.
• OPEC+ to increase crude output by 548,000 bpd in August; oil prices fall, but Aramco raises selling prices 4.
• Asian equities and U.S. futures decline ahead of U.S. tariff deadlines; volatility rises 9.
• PBOC surveys banks on dollar weakness as yuan appreciation risk grows; Dollar Index posts worst H1 since 1973 8.
• China boosts FX reserves to $3.3 trillion, adds gold for eighth month, and considers doubling Southbound Bond Connect quota 67.
• Samsung and LG warn of sharp Q2 profit declines on AI chip delays, U.S. export controls, and tariffs 11.
• Shell cuts Q2 gas output guidance, warns on weaker oil/gas trading; expects marketing strength but chemicals loss 20.
• Israel launches major airstrikes on Houthi ports in Yemen, heightening Red Sea shipping risks 5.
• Russia’s airports disrupted by drone threats, costing airlines $220 million/day; operations remain unstable 18.
• BBVA enables Bitcoin and Ether trading for Spanish retail clients, a first for a major EU bank 14.
• U.S. and China to begin talks on TikTok sale to Oracle -led group; new app launch September 5 19.

Commentary

Trade policy remains the primary driver for global markets this week. The Trump administration’s potential escalation of tariffs on EU goods, alongside the formalization of a 10% base tariff (now effective August 1), is increasing uncertainty for cross-border flows 12. The EU and China have signaled readiness to respond, with China specifically rejecting additional U.S. tariffs on BRICS-aligned countries 3. With formal tariff notifications expected imminently, risk sentiment is under pressure, as reflected in declines across Asian equities and U.S. futures 9.

Currency and capital flow dynamics are also in focus. The PBOC’s survey of domestic banks regarding the dollar’s slide—amid the weakest first-half for the Dollar Index since 1973—suggests Beijing is monitoring yuan appreciation risks closely 8. China’s continued FX reserve accumulation, gold purchases, and a possible doubling of the Southbound Bond Connect quota indicate ongoing efforts to manage capital stability and diversify reserves 67.

In commodities, OPEC+’s larger-than-expected August supply hike has weighed on oil prices, though Saudi Aramco’s price increases for key regions signal confidence in demand, particularly in Asia 4. Shell ’s Q2 update highlights ongoing sector headwinds, with weaker oil and gas trading and reduced gas output guidance, partially offset by strength in marketing 20.

Geopolitical risks persist. Israel’s airstrikes on Houthi-controlled Yemeni ports raise the threat level for Red Sea shipping, a corridor critical for global trade 5. Meanwhile, Russian airspace disruptions from drone threats are causing significant costs and operational instability for airlines 18.

In tech, Samsung and LG’s profit warnings underscore the drag from delayed AI chip shipments, U.S. export controls, and tariffs 11. Separately, the U.S.–China talks on the TikTok sale could affect the broader tech sector, particularly cross-border M&A and data privacy concerns 19. BBVA’s retail crypto rollout in Spain marks a notable step in mainstream digital asset adoption within the EU 14.

TL;DR

IAEA exits Iran, U.S. escalates global tariffs, BlackRock halts $15B Ukraine fund on policy risk.

Highlights

• IAEA inspectors have fully withdrawn from Iran, ending on-the-ground nuclear monitoring after Tehran’s suspension of cooperation 1.
• Trump threatens tariffs up to 70% on 12 countries; U.S. also warns of 17% tariff on EU food exports 218.
• India notifies WTO of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods over auto duties; deadline for a limited deal is July 9 5.
• France urges EU to tighten tariffs on Chinese imports; China retaliates with anti-dumping measures and shortens upcoming EU summit 4.
• U.S. expands AI chip export controls to Malaysia and Thailand to prevent rerouting to China 3.
• BlackRock halts $15B Ukraine recovery fund amid uncertainty over U.S. policy; Russia launches largest air assault on Ukraine since 2022 98.
• SEBI bars Jane Street and seizes $567M over alleged index manipulation, impacting liquidity in Indian derivatives markets 14.
• Dormant bitcoin wallets move $8.6B, raising concerns about a possible hack 15.
• Foxconn posts record Q2 revenue on AI server and iPhone demand; in early talks with Nissan to build EVs at Oppama plant 1617.
• China expands Taiwan Strait flight path, escalating tensions ahead of Taiwan’s military drills 6.
• Major internet outage in Iran cuts connectivity to 15%; cause unclear 12.
• EU plans emergency stockpiles of critical minerals and strategic goods amid rising geopolitical risk 20.

Commentary

Geopolitics and trade tensions remain the dominant themes for global markets this weekend. The IAEA’s withdrawal from Iran eliminates international oversight of Tehran’s nuclear program, increasing uncertainty in the region and adding risk to energy markets 1. The nationwide internet blackout in Iran, with no official explanation, further clouds the outlook for regional stability and logistics 12.

Trade policy risk is elevated. The U.S. is escalating its stance with tariff threats up to 70% on 12 countries and a potential 17% duty on EU food exports 218, while India is moving forward with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods 5. France’s call for broader EU tariffs on Chinese imports and China’s countermeasures signal a more fragmented global trade environment 4. These actions could weigh on equities in export-driven sectors and drive volatility in major currency pairs (USD , EUR , INR , CNY ) 256.

In Asia, U.S. export controls on AI chips now extend to Malaysia and Thailand, tightening the net around China’s semiconductor access and potentially impacting global tech supply chains 3. China’s unilateral expansion of a flight path in the Taiwan Strait ahead of Taiwanese military drills adds to regional security tensions, which could affect sentiment in Asian markets 6.

On the corporate side, Foxconn’s record revenue—driven by AI server and iPhone demand—highlights ongoing strength in tech hardware 16, while early-stage EV talks with Nissan signal continued sectoral shifts 17. In India, SEBI’s action against Jane Street is already impacting derivatives liquidity, a reminder of regulatory risk for global trading firms 14. In crypto, the sudden movement of $8.6B in dormant bitcoin warrants close monitoring for potential market disruption 15.

The suspension of BlackRock ’s Ukraine recovery fund and Russia’s intensified attacks underscore persistent risks to European investment flows and energy supply 98. The EU’s move to build emergency mineral stockpiles reflects growing concern over supply chain security 20.