TL;DR
China bans all crypto; US SEC eases ETF rules; Bitcoin falls on ETF outflows and liquidations.
Highlights
- China enacts a comprehensive ban on crypto trading, mining, and related services, reinforcing prior crackdowns1.
- SEC launches “Project Crypto,” easing ETF rules for Bitcoin /Ether and clarifying token/DeFi classifications; in-kind ETF creation/redemption approved2.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $812M in outflows (Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK); Ether ETFs end 20-day inflow streak4.
- Bitcoin drops below $113,000 amid $577M in derivatives liquidations and risk-off sentiment3.
- Institutional and corporate accumulation persists: Metaplanet plans $3.7B raise to buy Bitcoin 5; Sharplink Gaming amasses 480,000 ETH (~$10B) via Galaxy Digital OTC12.
- Ethereum whale activity is mixed: $300M ETH bought via Galaxy Digital OTC (now at 8.7% unrealized loss); large short and staking losses reported712.
- Arthur Hayes sells $13.5M in ETH , ENA, PEPE, but maintains bullish BTC ($100K) and ETH ($3K) targets for Q3 20258.
- Solana ecosystem active: CME Solana futures volume triples to $8–9B in July10; Chillhouse NFT/token launch triggers rapid price gains9.
- Weak US jobs data and 800,000+ layoffs in 2025 lift Fed September rate cut odds above 80%151718; FOMC dynamics shift after Kugler resignation16.
- OPEC+ ends voluntary oil output cuts19; Trump imposes 39% tariff on Swiss imports, adding to global trade uncertainty20.
- VanEck, Fundstrat, and Saylor reiterate bullish Bitcoin targets ($180K–$500K), citing “digital gold” narrative and rising M2 money supply513.
- Social media recirculates China crypto ban rumors, but no new policy issued; current restrictions unchanged11.
Commentary
China’s formalized ban on all crypto activity reinforces a regulatory environment that has already pushed most trading and mining offshore since 2021111. While the headline may prompt short-term sentiment shifts, actual market impact is limited given prior enforcement and existing capital flight. Traders with Asia-facing exposure should remain alert to secondary impacts on mining supply chains and regional liquidity.
In the US, the SEC’s “Project Crypto” marks a significant regulatory development. The move to in-kind ETF creation/redemption for Bitcoin and Ether products is expected to reduce tracking error and operational friction, potentially attracting new inflows once risk appetite returns2. The rapid response from major exchanges and JPMorgan ’s partnership with Coinbase signal traditional finance’s continued expansion into digital assets, even as ETF outflows and price volatility persist24.
The market is contending with a risk-off environment: Bitcoin fell below $113,000 following large ETF outflows and $577M in liquidations34, while Ether ETFs broke a 20-day inflow streak4. Despite this, institutional and corporate accumulation remains active—Metaplanet’s $3.7B planned raise5 and Sharplink Gaming ’s aggressive ETH buying612 underscore longer-term conviction, even as some whales post short-term losses or expand short positions712. The divergence in whale activity highlights ongoing uncertainty in ETH direction.
Solana is seeing increased institutional and speculative activity, with CME futures volumes tripling10 and the Chillhouse NFT/token launch driving rapid repricing9. This points to continued interest in Layer 1 alternatives and NFT-driven liquidity strategies. Meanwhile, macro headwinds—weak US labor data1518, rising layoffs18, and shifting Fed dynamics1617—have sharply increased the probability of a September rate cut, which could support risk assets if realized.
Traders should closely monitor ETF flows, on-chain whale moves, and Fed commentary for directional cues. US regulatory clarity and macro easing remain the key catalysts for a sustained rebound, but volatility is likely to remain elevated amid global trade and policy developments15161720.