TL;DR

Robinhood, Oracle, Meta hit records; Fed cut seen in September; dollar posts worst H1 since 1973.

Highlights

• Robinhood shares jump 10% to record high after launching tokenized US stock and ETF trading in the EU; plans to expand to thousands of stocks by year-end 1.
• Oracle rises 8.6% to all-time high on disclosure of >$30B annual cloud contract starting FY2028 4.
• Meta Platforms hits new record, nearly 9x above 2022 lows; seeks $29B for AI data center buildout 1620.
• US banks rally after all major institutions clear Fed stress tests, enabling higher capital returns 20.
• Goldman Sachs moves up forecast for first Fed rate cut to September; market now prices multiple cuts by end-2026 5.
• US Dollar Index down 10% YTD—worst first half since 1973—on deficit, Fed policy, and political pressure 3.
• Trump presses Powell for 1% rates; Treasury Secretary Bessent signals willingness to lead Fed 67.
• Senate holds marathon votes on $3.3T tax-and-spending bill, including potential crypto tax reforms; July 4 deadline looms 814.
• MicroStrategy buys $532M in Bitcoin , now S&P 500 eligible; SEC reviews Grayscale’s multi-asset crypto ETF; REX-Osprey to launch first US Solana staking ETF; Supreme Court lets IRS access Coinbase user records; White House backs capital-gains tax relief for Bitcoin payments under $600 1112131415.
• US warns tariffs could rise to 11–50% on July 9 without new trade deals; Canada talks resume after digital tax dropped 29.
• AbbVie acquires Capstan Therapeutics for up to $2.1B, expanding in in-vivo CAR-T 17.
• US judge orders Argentina to hand over 51% of YPF in $16B dispute; YPF falls 6% 10.
• Trump to end most US Syria sanctions; US issues 90-day terror alert over Iranian cyber risks 1819.

Commentary

US equities are broadly higher into the close, led by tech and financials. Robinhood ’s EU tokenized stock launch 1 and Oracle ’s multi-billion-dollar cloud contract 4 have driven outsized gains in both names, while Meta continues its relentless rally on AI and data center expansion 1620. Bank stocks are also in focus after all major US lenders passed the Fed’s annual stress tests, clearing the way for increased dividends and buybacks 20.

Macro themes remain volatile. The dollar is posting its worst first half in over 50 years, pressured by deficit expansion, political interference in Fed policy, and shifting rate expectations 3. Goldman Sachs now expects the first Fed cut in September 5, and President Trump is escalating pressure on Powell for aggressive easing 6. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s openness to chairing the Fed signals further alignment with the administration’s policy stance 7.

Crypto markets are active: MicroStrategy’s $532M Bitcoin buy and S&P 500 eligibility could spur passive flows 11, while the SEC’s review of Grayscale’s multi-asset ETF 12 and the launch of a Solana staking ETF 15 mark further institutionalization. The Senate’s tax bill could include major crypto tax relief 14, but the Supreme Court’s Coinbase ruling signals tougher IRS enforcement ahead 13.

On the policy front, the risk of a July 9 tariff snap-back remains for US trading partners 2, though Canada talks have resumed after Ottawa dropped its digital tax 9. In healthcare, AbbVie ’s $2.1B Capstan deal continues the trend of biotech M&A 17. Meanwhile, a US judge’s order for Argentina to hand over its YPF stake has hit the stock 10, and Trump’s move to unwind most Syria sanctions could open new regional investment flows, though it comes amid heightened US terror and cyber alerts 1819.

Traders should monitor late-session moves in rates, the dollar, and Senate developments on the tax bill and crypto amendment 814, as well as headline risk from trade and geopolitical fronts 218.

TL;DR

U.S. futures rise on trade progress; dollar slumps on Fed concerns; oil, crypto, and tech in focus.

Highlights

• Canada rescinds 3% digital services tax on U.S. tech firms, resuming trade talks and targeting a July 2025 deal 1.
• U.S. dollar hits three-year low on Fed independence concerns; odds of rate cuts rise for July and September 2.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures extend gains; June rally fueled by trade progress and Trump’s $4T tax-cut bill, now in Senate debate 8.
• CBO warns Trump’s tax bill could widen deficit by $3.3T; GOP faces narrow margin in Senate 4.
• Oil drops to $67 (Brent) as Mideast risks ease and OPEC+ signals August output hike; U.S. rig count at lowest since Oct 2021 3.
• MicroStrategy extends Bitcoin buying streak; Bitcoin set for record monthly close; S&P 500 eligibility in focus 9.
• Crypto funds see $2.7B in weekly inflows; Kazakhstan central bank plans Bitcoin reserve 1112.
• Moderna ’s mRNA flu shot outperforms standard vaccine in Phase 3, shares up 7% 10.
• Bybit and Kraken launch tokenized U.S. stock trading (not for U.S. residents), expanding crypto–equity links 13.
• UK–US trade deal cuts U.S. car tariffs on UK autos; South Korea and India seek U.S. trade concessions as tariff deadlines approach 141516.
• Russia launches record drone/missile barrage on Ukraine; Ukraine loses F-16, renews U.S. air-defense aid requests 5.
• Baidu open-sources Ernie 4.5 AI models, escalating global AI pricing competition 17.

Commentary

U.S. equity futures are higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to extend their record June rally 8. The positive tone is supported by progress on multiple trade fronts: Canada’s removal of its digital tax on U.S. tech giants restarts talks toward a new bilateral deal 1, while the UK–US trade agreement 14 and ongoing negotiations with South Korea 15 and India 16 suggest further tariff relief is possible. These developments are particularly supportive for tech, autos, and industrials.

The dollar’s sharp decline to a three-year low is a key cross-asset driver 2. Market participants are reacting to renewed concerns over Fed independence, with President Trump openly criticizing Chair Powell and floating possible replacements viewed as more dovish 2. Futures now price in a 25% chance of a July rate cut and a 92% probability of easing by September 2. The weaker dollar is fueling flows into risk assets, including equities and crypto, while Treasury yields edge lower and gold softens 2.

Oil prices are under pressure as the Mideast risk premium fades and OPEC+ signals another output increase for August 3. Brent is back near pre-conflict levels, and U.S. rig counts have dropped to multi-year lows, which may limit further downside if demand holds up 3. In crypto, MicroStrategy ’s continued Bitcoin accumulation and Kazakhstan’s reserve plans highlight institutional momentum, as crypto funds post another week of strong inflows 91211. Tokenization of U.S. stocks on crypto exchanges is advancing, but U.S. investors remain excluded for now 13.

On the policy side, the Senate’s debate over Trump’s $4 trillion tax-cut bill is a near-term risk factor 4. The CBO’s warning of a $3.3 trillion deficit and a slim GOP majority could inject volatility if additional Republican defections emerge 4. Moderna ’s strong flu vaccine data is a positive for biotech 10, while Baidu ’s open-sourcing of its AI models could pressure U.S. AI software margins 17.

Traders should stay alert for further trade headlines, the July 6 OPEC+ meeting 3, and Thursday’s U.S. jobs report, all of which could shift sentiment and cross-asset positioning.

TL;DR

Senate advances $3.8T tax bill, July 9 tariff risk looms, S&P 500 hits record highs.

Highlights

• Senate advanced Trump’s $3.8T tax-and-spending bill, aiming to make Trump-era tax cuts permanent, cut Medicaid/SNAP, repeal green-energy credits, and add new coal breaks; final Senate vote pending after amendment process 110.
• Senate GOP plan would immediately end federal renewable energy credits, impose 2028 excise tax on new wind/solar projects, and accelerate phase-out of clean-energy manufacturing credits 10.
• Trump reaffirmed July 9 tariff deadline; higher tariffs set to resume for countries without trade deals, with ongoing talks involving EU, Japan, and South Korea 2.
• Trump endorsed Senate plan for up to 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy (notably China, India); Senate to consider in July 11.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted record highs, erasing April’s tariff-driven losses; rebound attributed to tariff pause, trade progress, and Fed rate-cut expectations 9.
• Trump pledged to appoint a Fed chair who will cut rates to 1–2%, increasing political focus on Fed policy 8.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began $865M stock sale under 10b5-1 plan; broader Nvidia insider selling continues as stock remains at record highs 7.
• Tesla nears completion of Texas LFP battery plant, strengthening domestic EV supply chain and benefiting from tariffs on Chinese competitors 15.
• Russia launched largest airstrike on Ukraine since 2022; NATO air defenses on alert; U.S. and Russia maintain intelligence hotline 313.
• Iran barred IAEA chief, blocked nuclear site cameras; IAEA warns Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months 512.
• SEC cleared REX-Osprey Solana and Ethereum staking ETFs; spot Bitcoin ETFs hit record inflows; MicroStrategy nears S&P 500 inclusion 61718.
• Israel ordered mass evacuation in northern Gaza ahead of new offensive; ceasefire talks ongoing amid worsening humanitarian conditions 4.

Commentary

US markets face a busy week as fiscal, trade, and geopolitical headlines converge. The Senate’s advancement of a $3.8T tax-and-spending bill, which would make expiring Trump-era tax cuts permanent while slashing Medicaid, SNAP, and green-energy incentives, signals a potential shift in sector dynamics 110. The immediate repeal of renewable energy credits and the introduction of new taxes on wind and solar could pressure clean energy equities and project pipelines, while coal and traditional energy may benefit 10. The bill’s path remains uncertain, with Senate amendments and a House revisit still ahead 1.

Trade policy remains a key risk: Trump’s insistence that the July 9 tariff deadline will not be extended puts pressure on ongoing negotiations with major partners 2. The prospect of higher tariffs for non-compliant countries could trigger volatility in global equities, FX, and supply chain-exposed sectors 2. Additionally, Trump’s endorsement of up to 500% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy—targeting China and India—raises the stakes for commodity and emerging market flows 11.

Equity markets have shown resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new highs on optimism around a tariff pause and possible Fed rate cuts 9. However, Trump’s public commitment to installing a dovish Fed chair if re-elected adds uncertainty to the rates outlook and could impact the dollar and Treasuries if markets begin to price in more aggressive easing 8. Meanwhile, notable insider selling at Nvidia and Tesla ’s progress on domestic battery production highlight ongoing shifts within tech and industrials 715.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Russia’s record airstrike on Ukraine 3, Iran’s nuclear escalation 512, and renewed Israeli operations in Gaza 4 all have the potential to impact energy prices, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets. In crypto, regulatory progress continues with SEC approval of Solana and Ethereum staking ETFs 6, strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs 17, and MicroStrategy nearing S&P 500 inclusion 18, supporting momentum in digital assets.

TL;DR

US banks pass stress test; Trump pushes Fed for deeper cuts; US-Canada trade talks suspended.

Highlights

• All 22 US megabanks passed the Fed’s 2025 stress test, maintaining strong capital buffers; updated capital buffer rules expected in August may allow new dividend and buyback plans 2.
• President Trump renewed public pressure on the Fed for 2–3 percentage points in rate cuts, called for Chair Powell’s resignation, and signaled he would nominate a dovish successor next year 1.
• Senate Republicans scheduled a Saturday procedural vote on Trump’s major tax bill, targeting passage before July 4; the bill faces GOP and Democratic resistance, with key provisions under review 3.
• Trump suspended US-Canada trade talks over Canada’s digital services tax on US tech firms, warning of possible tariffs; Canadian PM Carney pledged to keep negotiating despite US threats 412.
• The Senate blocked a resolution to restrict Trump’s Iran war powers, leaving his authority for unilateral military action unchanged amid recent strikes and fragile Middle East diplomacy 9.
• Iran warned Trump to change his tone toward Supreme Leader Khamenei or risk stalling nuclear talks, following recent US strikes and a tenuous cease-fire 11.
• Ripple and the SEC agreed to drop appeals in their XRP lawsuit, ending a multi-year regulatory dispute 5.
• Tesla completed its first fully autonomous vehicle delivery in Texas and filed for fast-track EU approval of its Full Self-Driving software 6.
• OpenAI began leasing Google Cloud TPUs for AI workloads, reducing reliance on Nvidia chips and intensifying AI hardware competition 7.
• Meta is seeking $29 billion in private credit to fund new AI data centers, highlighting the scale of AI infrastructure investment 13.
• Palantir shares fell 11% amid a 40 million-share block sale during the annual Russell index rebalancing; megacap tech stocks rose 8.
• The Supreme Court limited the ability of lower courts to issue nationwide injunctions against executive actions, changing the landscape for regulatory challenges 14.
• Senate Republicans advanced a plan to halve the CFPB’s budget, potentially curbing consumer protection oversight 10.

Commentary

US financials received a boost as all 22 megabanks cleared the Fed’s latest stress test, with capital ratios remaining well above regulatory minimums even under adverse scenarios 2. This outcome removes immediate capital concerns and sets the stage for banks to announce dividend and buyback plans once final capital buffer settings are published in August 2. The results could support bank stocks and financial sector sentiment into next week.

Macro policy remains in focus. President Trump’s renewed calls for aggressive Fed rate cuts—well beyond what the central bank has signaled—underscore ongoing political pressure on monetary policy 1. His comments on Powell’s future add uncertainty to the Fed’s leadership outlook 1. Meanwhile, the Senate is set for a weekend vote on Trump’s tax package, which includes tax cuts, energy incentives, and border measures, though internal GOP divisions and Democratic opposition could delay or reshape the bill 3.

Trade and geopolitical risks are back in play. Trump’s suspension of US-Canada trade talks over Ottawa’s digital tax on US tech firms raises the risk of new tariffs and cross-border supply chain disruptions, with Canadian officials signaling a willingness to keep negotiating 412. In the Middle East, the Senate’s refusal to limit Trump’s Iran war powers and Iran’s warnings over US rhetoric highlight persistent instability, which could impact oil and defense-related assets 911.

In tech, Tesla ’s autonomous delivery and EU regulatory filing suggest ongoing momentum in self-driving technology 6, while OpenAI’s move to Google TPUs and Meta’s $29 billion data center financing highlight the growing competition and capital intensity in AI infrastructure 713. The resolution of the Ripple -SEC lawsuit removes a key regulatory overhang for XRP and may improve sentiment in crypto markets 5.

Traders should watch for post-close bank capital return announcements, weekend developments on the tax bill, and any escalation in US-Canada trade tensions or Middle East events 23491112. The Russell rebalance’s outsized flows—evidenced by Palantir ’s sharp drop—could create further volatility in small- and mid-cap names into next week 8.

TL;DR

S&P 500, Nasdaq hit records on US-China deal; Trump threatens Canada tariffs; core inflation rises.

Highlights

• • S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, led by tech and optimism on US-China trade 2.
• US-China trade agreement confirmed, easing rare-earth supply risks and reversing prior tariff-driven market losses 2.
• Trump halts US-Canada trade talks, threatens tariffs after Canada enacts 3% digital tax on large US tech firms 111.
• US and EU move closer to a trade deal ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline; talks could extend to Labor Day 712.
• Core US PCE inflation rose to 2.7% in May (above forecast); personal income fell 0.4%, real consumption down 3.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 US growth forecast to 2.9% on weaker inventories and spending; Goldman Sachs sees 3.9% 17.
• Oil heads for worst week since 2023 as Israel-Iran cease-fire removes war premium; OPEC+ likely to hike output again July 6 45.
• Microsoft delays Maia AI chip to 2026, increasing reliance on Nvidia for AI workloads 8.
• Trump escalates criticism of Fed Chair Powell, pushing for rate cuts; Fed’s Kashkari still expects two cuts in 2025, first likely September 918.
• US expended 15–20% of global THAAD missile-defense stockpile during Israel-Iran conflict, raising replenishment concerns 14.
• Supreme Court limits nationwide injunctions, enabling Trump administration to proceed with previously blocked policies 13.
• Trump touts US crypto sector but refuses to commit to divestment as Congress debates new regulation 1016.

Commentary

US equities finished at record levels, driven by confirmation of a US-China trade agreement that alleviates supply chain risks, particularly around rare-earth minerals 2. Tech led the rally, with Nvidia’s valuation approaching $3.8 trillion and Microsoft lagging after delaying its Maia AI chip to 2026 8. The market’s rebound has erased nearly all losses from the April tariff shock, but attention is now shifting to the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline and the Fed’s next moves 220.

Trade policy remains a key risk. Trump’s abrupt halt to US-Canada trade talks and tariff threats following Canada’s new digital tax on US tech giants add uncertainty for cross-border supply chains and the tech sector 111. Meanwhile, US-EU negotiations appear constructive, and the White House may extend the July 9 deadline to Labor Day, reducing immediate tariff risk 712. Traders should monitor for any escalation or resolution in these talks, as headlines could quickly shift sentiment 20.

Macro data was mixed. Core PCE inflation ticked up to 2.7% (above expectations), while personal income and real consumption both fell, signaling softer Q2 growth 3. The Atlanta Fed cut its Q2 GDP forecast to 2.9%, though Goldman Sachs remains more bullish 17. The Fed remains cautious, with Kashkari reiterating that rate cuts are likely but dependent on data and tariff impacts 18. Trump continues to pressure the Fed for cuts, adding to policy uncertainty 9.

In commodities, oil is sharply lower as the Israel-Iran cease-fire removes the war premium and OPEC+ prepares for another output hike 45. Energy equities and related credits may remain under pressure if supply growth outpaces demand. US defense readiness is in focus after significant THAAD interceptor usage in the Middle East, though this has not yet spilled over into broader risk assets 14.

Crypto remains volatile as Trump touts US leadership but refuses to divest personal holdings, clouding the regulatory outlook 1016. The Supreme Court’s limit on nationwide injunctions could accelerate the administration’s policy agenda, but market impact appears limited for now 13.

TL;DR

US–China rare-earth deal signed; India trade talks near deadline; AI infrastructure push accelerates.

Highlights

• US and China sign a rare-earth trade deal, easing select export curbs but leaving 30% average US tariffs and 20% fentanyl-related surcharges in place13.
• US signals trade negotiations with India are near completion; a deal could avert a 26% US tariff snapback on Indian goods by July 94.
• Chinese industrial profits fell 9.1% YoY in May, the steepest decline in seven months, amid tariff pressures and weak demand7.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent urges Congress to remove Section 899 retaliatory tax after a G7 deal exempts US multinationals from the OECD’s global minimum tax, complicating budget talks5.
• Trump administration drafts executive orders to accelerate US power grid and data center build-out for AI, with a formal plan expected July 2311.
• SoftBank increases its OpenAI investment to $32B, highlighting ongoing capital flows into US AI and tech12.
• Nikkei 225 rallies above 40,000 on chip sector strength and easing tariff concerns14; Renesas delays $20B sales goal to 2035 due to chip market weakness20.
• US auto tariffs reduce UK vehicle exports to the US by 55% YoY in May and trigger parts-supplier layoffs6.
• US–Israel airstrikes claim to have disabled Iran’s nuclear program8; Israel strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon9; shipping in the Strait of Hormuz faces elevated security risks10.
• Mexico’s CNBV intervenes in Vector Casa de Bolsa after US money-laundering allegations tied to the Sinaloa cartel19.
• Eurozone: France and Spain see firmer inflation17, but confidence remains weak; Germany’s minimum wage set to rise, raising cost concerns for small businesses18.
• Bhutan’s Bitcoin reserves reach $1.3B (40% of GDP), underscoring sovereign crypto adoption15.

Commentary

US–China trade tensions show only modest easing as the rare-earths deal restarts critical mineral flows but leaves most tariffs and surcharges intact13. While this is a positive for US manufacturers dependent on rare earths, the broader tariff regime continues to weigh on global supply chains and Chinese industrial profits, which posted their sharpest drop in months7. The US is also pushing for a trade agreement with India to avoid a tariff snapback by July 9, which could benefit select US exporters and importers if finalized in time4.

AI and tech remain in focus. The White House’s planned executive orders to accelerate grid and data center expansion address infrastructure bottlenecks for the AI sector, potentially supporting US utilities such as The Southern Company , Xcel Energy, Inc. , Duke Energy Corporation , and Entergy Corporation , as well as data center REITs and chipmakers11. SoftBank’s expanded $32B commitment to OpenAI signals continued global capital inflows into US tech12, even as the chip sector shows mixed signals: the Nikkei’s rally14 contrasts with Renesas’ profit warning and delayed growth targets20, reflecting ongoing inventory corrections outside the US.

Geopolitical risks persist. US–Israel strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities8 and renewed Israeli action in Lebanon9 keep energy and shipping markets alert, especially with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz taking extra precautions10. Any escalation could impact oil prices and logistics costs. Meanwhile, US auto tariffs continue to disrupt transatlantic supply chains, with UK vehicle exports to the US sharply lower and US parts suppliers such as Genuine Parts Company , ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC , and LKQ Corporation facing layoffs6.

On the policy front, the removal of the Section 899 retaliatory tax after the G7 tax deal removes a potential friction point for US multinationals but complicates budget negotiations, possibly affecting Treasury issuance and the dollar5. In Europe, rising inflation in France and Spain17 is offset by weak confidence and pending wage hikes in Germany, which could impact US firms with European exposure18. Mexico’s regulatory intervention in a major brokerage over US money-laundering allegations is a reminder of ongoing compliance risks in cross-border finance19.

TL;DR

U.S.–China trade deal signed; S&P 500 nears record on Fed cut bets; Nike jumps despite tariff warning.

Highlights

• Trump announced a new U.S.–China trade deal, including an agreement to expedite Chinese rare earth exports to the U.S.; details pending12.
• U.S. and China’s rare earth accord aims to stabilize key tech and defense supply chains after recent disruptions2.
• Nike beat lowered Q4 estimates despite a 12% revenue drop; warned of $1B in tariff-driven costs for FY26 but shares rose 10% on signs of stabilization4.
• S&P 500 closed just 0.05% below its record high, buoyed by Fed rate-cut expectations and easing geopolitical concerns7.
• Congress will scrap Section 899 “revenge tax” after a G7 pact, reducing risk of U.S.–EU digital tax disputes3.
• Trump introduced the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” proposing tax cuts, expanded child tax credits, and stricter immigration measures9.
• EU leaders are reviewing a new U.S. trade offer as a July 9 tariff deadline approaches; divisions remain within the bloc11.
• Uber is in early talks to help finance Travis Kalanick’s bid for Pony.ai’s U.S. robotaxi unit; Pony.ai shares surged 15%12.
• Banxico cut its policy rate by 50bps to 8.0% amid persistent growth and inflation concerns8.
• U.S. and Israel plan to demand Iran surrender its enriched uranium after strikes on Iranian nuclear sites; most uranium remains unaccounted for56.
• Supreme Court ruled states can block Medicaid funds to Planned Parenthood, impacting healthcare access in some states15.
• California is moving to declare online fantasy sports illegal, raising regulatory risk for gambling and DFS operators14.

Commentary

U.S.–China trade developments dominated the session, with Trump announcing a new bilateral deal and a specific accord to accelerate rare earth mineral exports12. This is a direct positive for U.S. tech, defense, and manufacturing sectors that have faced input shortages and cost volatility2. However, the lack of detail and ongoing tariff regimes mean traders should remain cautious about the durability of these supply chain improvements12.

Nike ’s earnings demonstrated that even with declining sales and a significant tariff headwind projected for next year, investors are willing to reward signs of operational stabilization and credible mitigation strategies4. The 10% after-hours jump in Nike shares reflects relief that the worst may be over for the company, and by extension, offers some optimism for other U.S. consumer multinationals navigating China exposure and tariff impacts4.

Macro sentiment remains constructive. The S&P 500 ’s close just shy of a record, alongside falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar, underscores growing market conviction that the Fed will cut rates soon—possibly as early as July710. This is supporting risk assets and could further weaken the dollar if Friday’s PCE inflation data confirms cooling price pressures7. Banxico’s rate cut is consistent with the global tilt toward monetary easing, but persistent inflation and trade uncertainty keep FX volatility in play, especially for emerging markets8.

On the policy front, Congress’s move to drop the Section 899 “revenge tax” following the G7 pact removes a near-term risk for U.S. tech giants with European exposure3. Meanwhile, the EU is under deadline pressure to respond to Washington’s latest trade proposal, with the risk of steep new U.S. tariffs on European exports if talks stall11. Traders should monitor headlines for any sign of a breakthrough or breakdown before the July 9 deadline11.

Sector-specific risks remain active. The Supreme Court’s Medicaid ruling could impact healthcare providers in several states15, while California’s push to ban online fantasy sports signals rising regulatory headwinds for gambling and DFS platforms14. The U.S.–Israel demand for Iran to surrender uranium keeps a geopolitical floor under energy, but immediate market impact appears limited56.

TL;DR

US Q1 GDP contracts; Fed signals no July cut; Iran tensions, Nike earnings, and platinum surge in focus.

Highlights

• US Q1 GDP contracted 0.5% (final), worse than expected; consumer spending revised sharply lower, imports surged ahead of tariffs, and inflation ticked higher15.
• Durable goods orders jumped 16% in May on strong transportation demand, but trade deficit widened to $96.6B and continuing jobless claims hit highest since 2021517.
• Boston Fed’s Collins said rate cuts are likely later in 2025, not at July FOMC, citing need for more inflation progress6.
• Platinum futures topped $1,400/oz (+56% YTD) on supply concerns and increased Chinese jewelry demand; palladium also rallied7.
• US strikes disabled Iran’s Fordow centrifuges; Iran moved to suspend IAEA cooperation2. US eased some Iran oil sanctions, allowing more crude exports to China, and is considering a $30B civil nuclear incentive318.
• Israel and US reportedly agreed in principle to end Gaza war within two weeks and establish a joint Arab administration in Gaza, though details remain unconfirmed4.
• NATO raised its defense spending pledge to 5% of GDP; US warns of trade consequences for non-compliance8.
• EU considering tariff cuts on US goods to pre-empt Trump-led trade clash; White House says July 9 trade deadline stands919.
• Tesla fired operations chief Omead Afshar amid ongoing sales slowdown and further executive departures; shares down 19% YTD10.
• Nike to report weak Q4 results after the close, with margins pressured by tariffs and discounting; focus on forward guidance11.
• Coinbase to launch CFTC-regulated perpetual crypto futures in US July 21; Senate GOP targets Sept. 30 for crypto market structure bill; FHFA directs Fannie/Freddie to count crypto in mortgage reviews121314.
• CoreWeave revived talks to buy Core Scientific (CORZ +30%); Cyngn soared 582% on Nvidia alliance; Rocket Lab +15% after successful launch and ESA contract151620.

Commentary

US macro data today reinforced a picture of slowing growth and persistent inflation. The final Q1 GDP revision showed a deeper contraction than previously reported, with consumer spending marked down sharply and imports distorting the headline due to tariff front-loading15. Durable goods orders rebounded strongly, but this was driven by volatile transportation orders, while the trade deficit widened and continuing jobless claims rose to their highest since 2021—suggesting the labor market is gradually cooling517.

The Fed remains cautious: Boston’s Collins reiterated that July is too soon for rate cuts, keeping the focus on incoming inflation and labor data6. Treasury yields may remain rangebound in the near term, with the front end sensitive to growth concerns and the long end anchored by sticky inflation.

Geopolitical developments are in flux. The US disabled Iran’s Fordow centrifuges in recent strikes, and Iran is moving to limit IAEA oversight2. At the same time, the US eased some oil sanctions, opening the door for more Iranian crude to China, and is considering a $30B civil nuclear incentive to entice Iran back to talks318. Oil and precious metals markets are reacting to these cross-currents, with platinum and palladium both rallying on supply and demand shifts7.

In equities, sector moves are pronounced. Defense names may benefit from NATO’s new 5% GDP spending pledge8, while consumer and cyclical stocks remain under pressure—Nike ’s after-hours results and guidance will be closely watched for signs of stabilization11. Tesla ’s management turnover and sales slowdown continue to weigh on sentiment10. In crypto, regulatory momentum is building: Coinbase’s CFTC-regulated perpetuals and new Senate legislation signal further market maturation1213, while the FHFA’s move to count crypto in mortgage reviews could drive incremental demand14.

Traders should watch for late-session volatility tied to Nike earnings, updates on Middle East negotiations, and any trade headlines as the July 9 deadline approaches1119.

TL;DR

Trump eyes early Powell replacement; dollar drops, gold up; Walgreens beats, pulls guidance; oil, platinum rally.

Highlights

• Trump considers early Fed Chair Powell replacement; dollar hits 3.5-year low, gold and euro rise, Treasury yields ease 1.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent extends “extraordinary measures” to avoid US debt default through July 24, 2025 2.
• Oil climbs as US crude inventories fall 5.8 million barrels; OPEC+ may advance supply hikes 3.
• Platinum surges to $1,381/oz, an 11-year high, on supply deficit and strong Chinese demand 5.
• Walgreens beats Q3 estimates but withdraws FY25 guidance as Sycamore buyout nears; shares up on profit beat 6.
• Pfizer ’s hemophilia drug meets all Phase 3 endpoints; Altimmune ’s MASH trial misses fibrosis target, shares drop ~40% 8.
• Meta hires three senior OpenAI researchers, escalating the AI talent race 7.
• Trump secures NATO pledge to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP by 2035; Pentagon shifts FY26 budget to missiles and drones 910.
• EU leaders to tighten Russia sanctions and weigh response to renewed US tariff threats 11.
• Iran halts cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog; Supreme Leader Khamenei’s absence stirs succession concerns amid ceasefire 1415.
• Coinbase launches wrapped Cardano and Litecoin on Base; Binance, Upbit, and Kraken list Sahara AI token 1718.
• Japan cuts super-long bond issuance to ease yield pressure; rejects US auto tariffs ahead of July deadline 416.

Commentary

The US dollar is under pressure after President Trump signaled he may announce a successor to Fed Chair Powell months ahead of schedule, raising the prospect of a more dovish Fed. The Dollar Index has dropped to a multi-year low, supporting gold and the euro while easing Treasury yields. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of US rate cuts by year-end, which could continue to weigh on the dollar and support non-USD assets 1.

Fiscal uncertainty remains in focus as Treasury Secretary Bessent extends special accounting measures to delay a US debt default until late July. With Congress yet to resolve the debt ceiling, short-term volatility in Treasuries and credit markets is possible as the new deadline approaches 2.

Commodities are active: Oil is up for a second session on a larger-than-expected US inventory draw, but OPEC+ may bring forward supply increases, potentially capping further gains 3. Platinum is seeing outsized moves, hitting decade highs on supply constraints and strong Chinese demand, lifting related mining equities and ETFs 5.

In equities, Walgreens posted a profit beat but withdrew forward guidance as its Sycamore buyout nears, highlighting ongoing sector uncertainty 6. In healthcare, Pfizer ’s positive Phase 3 hemophilia data stands in contrast to Altimmune ’s sharp selloff after its MASH trial missed a key fibrosis endpoint 8. Meta ’s recruitment of senior OpenAI talent intensifies the AI sector’s competitive dynamics, with implications for tech and chip names 7.

Geopolitical and regulatory headlines remain relevant: Trump’s NATO deal and the Pentagon’s budget shift point to ongoing defense sector tailwinds 910; EU leaders are set to tighten Russia sanctions and discuss US tariff threats 11. In crypto, Coinbase’s new wrapped tokens and the Sahara AI token debut highlight continued sector innovation 1718. Japan’s bond issuance adjustment and auto tariff talks add to global rate and trade watchpoints 416.