Highlights

• U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, beating expectations; unemployment steady at 4.2%, wage growth cooled, and labor force participation rose 1.
• Goldman Sachs and Barclays push forecast for Fed's first rate cut to July after strong payrolls data 9.
• Saudi Arabia signals acceptance of lower oil prices; OPEC+ to discuss a 400,000 bpd output hike for June as crude hits multi-year lows (Brent ~$62) 2.
• Shell , Chevron , and Exxon report Q1 profit declines on lower oil prices but maintain or adjust buyback plans; Chevron to pare buybacks, Shell and Exxon stay the course 14.
• DOJ seeks breakup of Google ’s ad tech business for antitrust; trial set for September 3.
• Jeff Bezos to sell up to 25 million Amazon shares (~$4.8B) by May 2026 under a pre-set plan, following a 22% drop in Amazon stock from February highs 4.
• Nvidia stock rises 2.5% as it tweaks AI chips for China to comply with U.S. export bans, aiming to retain Chinese business 6.
• Palantir stock nears all-time high after 50%+ gain in April, ahead of Monday’s earnings 20.
• Take-Two shares drop 16% after ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ delayed to May 2026 5.
• Taiwan dollar surges 4% in its biggest one-day move since 1988, raising investor exposure concerns; Asian FX broadly firmer on easing trade tensions 11.
• China quietly exempts $40B of U.S. imports from tariffs and mulls fentanyl export curbs to restart trade talks; U.S. reciprocates on some electronics 108.
• Brown University allocates 2% of its endowment to Bitcoin ETF; Senator Lummis says Trump supports bill for U.S. to buy 1 million Bitcoin 1213.
• Apple ordered to allow crypto/NFT purchases without App Store fees; Epic Games to return Fortnite to App Store 15.
• McDonald’s U.S. sales see steepest drop since pandemic, but profits beat; low- and middle-income consumer traffic sharply lower 19.
• Venmo and Zelle experience outages due to Fiserv issue, causing payment disruptions for thousands of users 18.
• Trump FY2026 budget seeks record $1.01T for defense, slashes $163B from domestic programs; defense spending at all-time high 16.

Market Commentary

Today’s session is defined by a strong U.S. jobs report, with payrolls beating consensus and unemployment steady, but wage growth moderating 1. This “Goldilocks” labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs and Barclays to push back their Fed rate cut expectations to July, reinforcing the theme of “higher for longer” in U.S. rates 9. Equities may see some late-session volatility as traders recalibrate rate cut bets, with tech and growth names most sensitive to shifting rate expectations.

Commodities are under pressure as Saudi Arabia signals tolerance for lower oil prices and OPEC+ weighs another output hike 2. Brent and WTI are at multi-year lows, squeezing energy sector margins. While Shell and Exxon are holding firm on buybacks, Chevron ’s more cautious stance underscores the sector’s uncertainty 14. Lower oil prices could provide a tailwind for transport and consumer sectors but weigh on energy equities and credit spreads.

In tech, regulatory and strategic headlines are front and center. The DOJ’s push to break up Google ’s ad tech business adds a fresh antitrust overhang for Alphabet 3, while Apple faces a court order to allow crypto and NFT purchases outside its walled garden—potentially opening new revenue streams for developers and crypto platforms 15. Nvidia ’s rally on news of China-specific AI chips shows the market’s appetite for companies that can adapt to geopolitical headwinds 6. Meanwhile, Amazon faces technical selling pressure as Jeff Bezos discloses a major planned share sale 4.

Currency markets are seeing rare volatility, with the Taiwan dollar’s historic surge raising risk for investors with unhedged exposure 11. Asian FX broadly benefits from signs of thawing U.S.-China trade tensions, as China exempts a quarter of U.S. imports from tariffs 10 and mulls fentanyl export curbs as a goodwill gesture 8. Watch for further moves in the dollar index and Asian FX pairs as trade headlines evolve.

Crypto remains in focus as institutional adoption accelerates—Brown University’s Bitcoin ETF allocation 12 and Senator Lummis’s bill for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve both stoke bullish sentiment 13. Apple ’s forced opening to crypto payments and Epic’s return to the App Store could further mainstream digital assets 15. Palantir ’s momentum ahead of earnings 20 and the sharp sell-off in Take-Two after the GTA VI delay 5 highlight the ongoing bifurcation in tech. Into the close, watch for positioning ahead of Monday’s key earnings and any late-breaking macro headlines, especially around OPEC+ and U.S.-China trade.

Highlights

• Apple Q2 earnings rose 5% (revenue $95.4B, profit $24.8B), but warned of a $900M tariff hit in Q3; trims buyback by $10B as manufacturing shifts to India/Vietnam; stock fell post-earnings 1.
• Trump administration ends de minimis exemption, imposing 120%+ tariffs on small-value Chinese imports; Shein and Temu prices spike, Shein pauses London IPO; e-commerce and logistics firms brace for higher costs 3.
• China signals openness to U.S. tariff talks but demands "sincerity" and rollback of recent tariffs; Asian equities and global futures rise on hopes for de-escalation 2.
• Tesla denies CEO search rumors after 71% earnings drop; Trump publicly backs Musk; shares remain under pressure 4.
• U.S. April jobs report expected to show 138,000 new jobs, unemployment steady at 4.2%; recession odds rise (Goldman: 45%, JPM: 60%) as Q1 GDP contracts 0.3% 11.
• Japan's finance minister hints at using $1T+ U.S. Treasury holdings as leverage in trade talks; Nikkei rallies for 7th day as yen weakens to 145.50/USD 1518.
• Trump imposes 25% tariff on Japanese autos, escalating trade tensions; Toyota sold 2.3M vehicles in U.S. last year; Japanese automakers adjust U.S. production 12.
• Shell , Chevron , and Exxon report Q1 profit declines on lower oil prices but maintain buybacks; Shell beats estimates, Chevron and Exxon in line or slightly below 8.
• Take-Two shares plunge 16% after Rockstar delays GTA VI release to May 2026 7.
• U.S. and Iran near a 25-year nuclear deal; Netanyahu surprised, Israel weighs unilateral options; regional tensions persist with Israeli strikes in Syria and Houthi attacks on Israel 5619.
• Bitcoin dominance hits 64.7%, highest since Jan 2021; altcoins lag as investors favor BTC 13.
• Cigna beats Q1 expectations, raises 2025 EPS guidance; strong revenue growth and operational efficiency 10.

Market Commentary

A volatile open looms as traders digest a barrage of macro, corporate, and geopolitical headlines. U.S.-China trade friction remains front and center: Apple ’s solid quarter is overshadowed by a $900M tariff warning and a trimmed buyback 1, while the abrupt end to the de minimis exemption slams e-commerce names like Shein and Temu and raises consumer price pressures 3. China’s tentative openness to tariff talks has buoyed Asian equities and global risk sentiment 2, but with no concrete timeline or U.S. concessions, the path to de-escalation remains fraught.

The U.S. labor market is in focus with April’s jobs report expected to confirm a marked slowdown. Recession fears are mounting—Goldman and JPMorgan both see sharply higher odds—after Q1 GDP slipped into contraction 11. The Fed’s tone remains cautious, and any downside surprise in payrolls could see yields fall and defensive equities outperform, while a hot print may briefly support the dollar but stoke stagflation concerns given the tariff-driven inflation backdrop.

Trade tensions are broadening: Trump’s new 25% tariff on Japanese autos risks retaliation, and Japan’s finance minister is now openly floating the use of its $1T+ Treasury holdings as leverage 1215. The yen’s slide has powered a Nikkei rally 18, but further depreciation could spark global currency volatility, especially if U.S.-Japan talks sour. Meanwhile, U.S. fixed income may see added volatility if Japan even hints at reducing Treasury purchases.

Commodities are under pressure as oil majors report profit drops on weaker crude prices, though capital returns remain robust. Shell , Chevron , and Exxon all maintained buybacks despite lower profits 8. Geopolitics remains a wild card: U.S.-Iran nuclear talks 5 and fresh Israeli military actions in Syria 6 and against Houthi threats 19 keep the Middle East risk premium alive, but so far have not reversed the downward trend in oil.

In crypto, Bitcoin ’s market dominance at a four-year high signals continued risk aversion within digital assets, as investors shun altcoins amid macro uncertainty 13. Cigna ’s strong quarter stands out in healthcare 10, while Take-Two ’s sharp drop on GTA VI’s delay is a reminder of execution risk in tech and gaming 7.

What to watch: U.S. jobs data for recession signals; further fallout in consumer/tech stocks from tariff escalation; yen and Treasury market moves on Japan’s trade posture; oil and defense names on Middle East headlines; and continued rotation within crypto as Bitcoin consolidates its lead. Stay nimble—headline risk remains elevated across asset classes.

Highlights

• Apple beat Q2 estimates with $95.4B revenue and $1.65 EPS, announced a $100B share buyback, but warned of a $900M tariff headwind; shares fell ~2-3% after hours.12
• Amazon topped Q1 expectations on revenue and EPS, but issued a softer outlook citing tariff risks and FX drag; stock dropped 4-5% post-close.2
• Reddit posted its first profitable quarter, with Q1 revenue up 61% and strong user growth; shares surged up to 19% after hours before settling +5%.8
• Roblox Q1 revenue and bookings exceeded guidance, DAUs rose 26% to 97.8M; stock jumped 8% post-earnings.10
• Duolingo delivered a 38% revenue jump and raised its FY2025 outlook, driven by AI and paid subs; stock soared over 10% after hours.11
• Roku Q1 revenue up 16%, announced Frndly TV acquisition; stock beat EPS estimates but lowered FY2025 sales guidance.12
• Instacart missed Q1 EPS/revenue estimates but saw 14% order growth and strong GTV; Q2 guidance slightly below consensus.13
• Airbnb beat Q1 revenue estimates but guided Q2 below consensus, citing softening US travel demand; shares fell 4% after hours.9
• Amgen beat Q1 earnings/revenue forecasts and reaffirmed FY guidance; strong biotech growth.14
• Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) reported a $4.22B Q1 loss but plans to raise $84B to expand Bitcoin holdings, citing a $5.8B YTD BTC gain.3
• EU offered to buy 850B in US gas/soybeans to ease Trump-era tariff tensions, but rejected 10% tariffs; US exempts CUSMA-compliant Canadian auto parts from 25% tariffs starting May 3.45
• Japans finance minister highlighted US Treasury holdings as trade leverage, with no current plans to use them or intervene on yen FX.6

Market Commentary

Mega-cap tech earnings dominated after-hours action, with Apple 12 and Amazon2 both beating top- and bottom-line estimates but facing immediate selling pressure on softer forward guidance and tariff risks. Apple s $100B buyback and dividend hike were overshadowed by a $900M tariff warning and a modest miss in Services revenue, while Amazons cautious outlook and explicit mention of tariff and FX headwinds spooked investors. These results reinforce ongoing concerns about the impact of trade policy volatility and a stronger dollar on US tech giants, even as operational performance remains robust.2

Consumer and internet stocks delivered a more upbeat tone. Reddit8, Roblox10, and Duolingo11 all posted strong revenue growth and user engagement, with each stock rallying after hours. Reddits first-ever profit and Duolingos AI-driven momentum signal that digital platforms with sticky user bases and pricing power are outperforming, while Robloxs bookings and DAU surge suggest continued strength in online entertainment. Roku s solid quarter and Frndly TV acquisition further highlight the competitive streaming landscape, though its lowered full-year outlook signals caution.12

On the macro front, trade policy remains a key risk. The EUs offer to ramp up US imports aims to defuse tariff tensions, but the Trump administrations ongoing tariff threats4 especially on autos5 continue to disrupt supply chains. The US exemption for CUSMA-compliant Canadian auto parts brings some relief, but retaliatory tariffs and automaker shutdowns (e.g., Stellantis) illustrate the persistent drag on the sector.5 Japans signaling of its US Treasury holdings as potential leverage adds another layer of uncertainty to global capital flows and FX markets, especially with no clear intervention path on the yen.6

In crypto, Strategys aggressive $84B capital raise to expand its Bitcoin treasury3 even after a multi-billion-dollar quarterly loss underscores institutional conviction in digital assets amid BTCs surge toward $97,000.3 Amgen s strong quarter and reaffirmed guidance provide a defensive anchor in healthcare,14 while Instacarts order growth but soft guidance reflect continued consumer caution.13

Traders should stay alert to further tariff headlines and FX volatility, particularly as tech and consumer names digest mixed earnings and guidance. Watch for spillover from trade policy into equity sector rotation (tech vs. defensives), potential moves in US Treasuries if Japan signals action, and ongoing crypto volatility as institutional flows accelerate. The market remains highly sensitive to forward-looking statements and macro risks, so expect choppy trading as positioning adjusts to the evolving policy and earnings landscape.

Highlights

• US initial jobless claims rose to 241,000 (highest in two months), with continuing claims also above expectations, signaling potential labor market cooling ahead of Friday’s payrolls1.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent urged the Fed to cut rates as the 2-year Treasury yield fell below the federal funds rate; market eyes June for a possible rate cut3.
• Microsoft (+9.1%) and Meta (+6%) surged on strong earnings, driven by AI and cloud growth; both plan further heavy AI infrastructure investment2.
• Nvidia shares jumped 5% as the US considers easing AI chip export restrictions to the UAE amid a $1.4T UAE investment pledge; Nvidia also faces looming China export controls set for May 15416.
• Apple and Amazon report earnings after the close; implied stock moves are ±7% for Apple and ±8% for Amazon, with high expectations following strong tech sector results8.
• Mastercard beat Q1 estimates with 14% revenue growth and strong cross-border volumes, affirming robust consumer spending9.
• Tesla erased $36B in market cap after a disputed WSJ report about CEO replacement; both Musk and Tesla denied the claims6.
• Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, escalating geopolitical risks and potentially impacting global energy markets5.
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged Trump to lift tariffs on small businesses to avert recession, citing mounting economic pressure from trade policy18.
• Third Point revealed a meaningful stake in U.S. Steel, expects Nippon merger to proceed, and sees credit markets as ripe for tactical opportunities amid tariff volatility11.
• Coinbase will suspend trading of the Trump-linked MOVE token on May 15 after a $38M scandal and Binance ban; crypto market integrity concerns rise12.
• 21Shares filed for spot Dogecoin and Sui ETFs, while Charles Schwab announced plans to launch spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading within 12 months, signaling continued crypto mainstreaming1314.

Market Commentary

Today's session is marked by a clear divergence between robust tech sector performance and signs of economic deceleration in the broader US economy. Microsoft and Meta 's earnings blowout, powered by AI and cloud demand, have reinvigorated risk appetite in large-cap tech, with Nvidia riding the wave on both strong sector sentiment and optimism around potential export rule easing to the UAE24. However, the tech rally is set against a backdrop of rising jobless claims and softening labor market data, which have revived hopes for Fed rate cuts—especially as the 2-year Treasury yield slips below the policy rate, a classic signal of market expectations for easier monetary policy13.

Equities are likely to remain bifurcated: mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure names are clear leaders, while cyclicals and small caps may lag amid recession concerns and tariff headwinds. The upcoming Apple and Amazon earnings after the bell are major catalysts; implied volatility is high, and any disappointment could trigger sharp moves given the sector’s recent outperformance8. Meanwhile, Mastercard ’s strong results confirm resilient consumer spending, but the warning signs from labor data and the Chamber of Commerce’s plea for tariff relief suggest underlying fragility918.

Fixed income markets are pricing in increased odds of a Fed cut, possibly as soon as June, which is supporting Treasuries and capping yields3. Credit markets are highlighted as attractive by Third Point, suggesting tactical opportunities as volatility persists—especially for those nimble enough to navigate policy-driven swings11. Commodities face renewed geopolitical risk as Trump’s fresh sanctions on Iranian oil buyers threaten to tighten global supply, while the postponement of US-Iran nuclear talks adds further uncertainty517.

In crypto, regulatory and market structure stories are front and center. The MOVE token scandal and subsequent delisting by Coinbase highlight ongoing integrity risks, but mainstream adoption continues apace: 21Shares is pushing for spot Dogecoin and Sui ETFs, and Schwab ’s entry into spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading could be a game changer for institutional flows121314. Tether’s massive USDT minting and growing reserves reinforce the stablecoin’s dominance, but also raise questions about systemic risk15.

Traders should watch for late-session volatility around Apple and Amazon earnings, monitor bond market signals for clues on Fed timing, and keep an eye on oil and defense stocks amid escalating Middle East tensions517. In crypto, regulatory headlines and ETF developments could drive outsized moves. Stay nimble—cross-asset correlations remain high, and policy risk is the dominant theme into the close.

Highlights

• US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March (lowest since 2020), weekly jobless claims rose to 241,000, and layoffs remain elevated, signaling further labor market softening1.
• Trump’s global tariffs narrowly survived a 49-49 Senate vote; US GDP contracted 0.3% in Q1, the first decline in three years, raising recession and inflation concerns2.
• McDonald’s missed revenue estimates as US same-store sales dropped 3.6%—the steepest decline since 2020—amid consumer caution and higher prices5.
• Eli Lilly beat Q1 earnings expectations on surging weight-loss drug sales but cut full-year profit guidance due to a $1.57B cancer deal charge; shares fell 5% pre-market7.
• Mastercard topped Q1 estimates with 14% revenue growth and strong payment volume, affirming robust consumer spending; shares likely to outperform peers6.
• Tesla shares fell 4% after reports of a board-led CEO succession search, though the company’s chair publicly denied any active search amid concerns over Musk’s focus and sales decline34.
• Harley-Davidson withdrew its 2025 outlook citing tariff and economic uncertainty, despite an earnings beat; CEO faces a proxy fight and the company is pulling back from Europe8.
• US-Iran tensions escalate: US warns of consequences for Iran’s support to Houthis, deploys B-2 bombers and carriers; IAEA warns of Iran’s growing uranium stockpile, nuclear deal remains elusive911.
• Israel to expand Gaza operations, call up reservists amid fuel crisis and ICC warrant; Netanyahu discusses possible Lebanon ground operation with Trump administration1018.
• Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5%, cut growth/inflation forecasts, citing uncertainty from US tariffs and global trade tensions15.
• Morgan Stanley plans to offer crypto trading to 5.2M E*Trade clients as soon as 2026; 21Shares files for a spot SUI ETF, lifting SUI token 4%1219.
• Visa and Mastercard launch AI-powered agent shopping/payment pilots, partnering with leading AI firms to enable autonomous transactions20.

Market Commentary

A confluence of softening US macro data and persistent geopolitical risk is setting a cautious tone for today’s open. The sharp drop in job openings and uptick in jobless claims signal that the labor market is losing momentum, adding to concerns after the first quarterly GDP contraction since 2021. This backdrop, combined with the Senate’s narrow support for Trump’s tariffs, heightens fears of stagflation—slower growth with sticky inflation—particularly as tariff-related uncertainty ripples through both corporate earnings and consumer sentiment12.

Corporate results are bifurcated: Mastercard ’s robust top-line growth and volume metrics suggest resilient consumer spending in payments, contrasting with McDonald’s and Harley-Davidson, where revenue misses and withdrawn outlooks point to growing pressure on discretionary consumption568. Eli Lilly ’s strong drug sales are overshadowed by profit guidance cuts, illustrating how even sector leaders are not immune to macro and deal-related headwinds7. Tesla ’s leadership uncertainty—despite board denials—adds another layer of volatility to the mega-cap tech/EV space34.

Geopolitics remain front and center. The US is ramping up military assets in the Middle East amid warnings to Iran and a worsening Israel-Gaza/Lebanon situation, while the IAEA’s alarm over Iran’s nuclear program keeps the risk premium alive in energy and defense9101118. Yet, oil prices are sliding (Brent near $67), as the IMF slashes MENA growth forecasts on weak demand and reduced US foreign aid, potentially capping further commodity upside unless conflict escalates sharply17.

In rates and FX, the BOJ’s dovish hold and downward revisions reflect how US trade policy is dampening global growth prospects, likely keeping the yen soft and supporting the dollar15. Equities may see defensive rotation, with investors favoring payments, healthcare, and select tech (AI/crypto themes) over cyclicals and consumer names. Crypto assets could see incremental flows after Morgan Stanley’s and 21Shares’ moves, as institutional and retail access expands1219.

Traders should watch for further labor data weakness, tariff headlines, and any escalation in Middle East conflict for direction. Equity volatility could rise, especially in consumer, industrial, and mega-cap tech names. Defensive positioning and event-driven trades around payments, crypto, and defense may outperform in the near term.

Highlights

• Microsoft and Meta both beat quarterly earnings estimates; Meta lifts 2025 AI capex guidance to as much as $72B, fueling strong after-hours gains (MSFT +6-7%, META +5%) 2.
• Qualcomm tops Q2 expectations but issues softer Q3 revenue guidance, triggering a >4% after-hours stock drop 5.
• Robinhood beats Q1 estimates, driven by a surge in crypto revenue and record net deposits; stock slips 2.2% post-market 8.
• Apple ordered by federal judge to immediately halt 27% fee on external App Store purchases after being found in contempt in Epic Games case; potential criminal probe referred to DOJ 3.
• S&P 500 closes April down just 0.76% after rebounding from an 11.2% mid-month plunge; tech sector (XLK ) rebounds 22% in 16 trading days 6.
• Amazon announces $4B investment to triple rural delivery capacity, add 200+ delivery stations, and create 100,000 jobs by 2026 7.
• U.S. Senate deadlocks 49–49 on ending Trump-era tariffs, leaving duties in place amid economic contraction signals 1.
• President Trump proposes 15% corporate tax rate for U.S. manufacturers and zero tariffs for new domestic factories 11.
• US and Ukraine sign 50/50 reconstruction fund deal granting U.S. firms first refusal on Ukrainian mineral and energy projects 4.
• House votes to repeal Biden-era EV mandates, with Trump’s backing, aiming to preserve consumer choice and counter reliance on Chinese minerals 10.
• North Carolina House passes bill allowing up to 5% of state funds to be invested in Bitcoin , joining a growing trend among U.S. states 9.
• eBay beats Q1 earnings and revenue expectations, guides Q2 in line with consensus 15.
• EU to present trade proposals to U.S. next week ahead of May 19 summit, signaling potential escalation or resolution of transatlantic trade tensions 12.
• Pemex posts $2.13B Q1 loss amid FX headwinds, declining output, and rising debt 14.

Market Commentary

After a volatile April, U.S. equities closed the month with a remarkable recovery, led by a tech sector resurgence that saw names like Microsoft and Meta deliver robust earnings and bullish AI investment guidance 2. The after-hours rally in these mega-cap techs will likely provide a tailwind for the broader market into May, especially as the S&P 500 managed to erase nearly all of its mid-month losses 6. However, Qualcomm ’s cautious Q3 outlook and the modest pullback in Robinhood despite strong crypto-driven results highlight that not all growth stories are immune to macro headwinds and shifting investor sentiment 58.

Policy developments are adding layers of complexity to the outlook. The Senate’s failure to repeal Trump-era tariffs keeps trade uncertainty elevated 1, particularly as the EU prepares to present new proposals and possible retaliatory measures ahead of the May 19 summit 12. President Trump’s push for a 15% corporate tax rate for U.S. manufacturing and zero tariffs on new domestic factories signals a renewed focus on industrial policy and supply chain reshoring, which could benefit domestic manufacturers but further strain global trade relations 11. Meanwhile, the House’s move to roll back Biden-era EV mandates underscores a political pivot toward traditional autos and away from aggressive electrification, with implications for automakers, energy, and critical mineral supply chains 10.

In the corporate sphere, Apple faces a significant regulatory setback as a federal judge orders it to end its 27% fee on external App Store purchases, potentially opening the door for more competition and lower margins in its high-margin services segment 3. Amazon ’s $4B rural expansion plan and eBay ’s solid results point to continued resilience in U.S. e-commerce and logistics 715, while Pemex’s deepening losses and rising debt highlight ongoing risks in emerging-market energy 14.

Crypto and blockchain initiatives are gaining institutional traction. North Carolina’s legislative move to allocate up to 5% of state reserves to Bitcoin 9, along with the Solana Policy Institute’s SEC pilot proposal for blockchain-based equity trading, signal growing mainstream acceptance and regulatory engagement with digital assets 13. Robinhood ’s crypto-driven growth and product expansion further reinforce the sector’s momentum, even as volatility persists 8.

Traders should watch for follow-through in tech leaders, potential sector rotation if macro or policy risks escalate, and any signs of renewed volatility from trade headlines or regulatory developments. The interplay between U.S. industrial policy, global trade tensions, and digital asset adoption will be key macro themes as markets digest April’s recovery and look ahead to a crowded May calendar.

Highlights

• US Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3% (first decline since 2022), driven by a pre-tariff import surge; PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6%1.
• ADP April private payrolls rose just 62,000, well below expectations, marking the slowest gain since July 20243.
• Markets now fully price in 125 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with a 63% probability of a cut at the June FOMC8.
• US equities remain under pressure (S&P 500 and Dow -8% YTD, Nasdaq -11.6%), with Trump blaming "Biden overhang" and touting post-tariff boom2.
• Senate to vote late afternoon on a resolution to revoke Trump’s emergency tariff powers; White House threatens veto4.
• US PCE inflation was flat MoM in March; core PCE fell to 2.6% YoY (lowest since 2021), while German core CPI rose to 2.9%10.
• US crude inventories fell 2.7 million barrels (vs. +429k expected); gasoline stocks also down, but Saudi Arabia signals willingness to sustain low oil prices, sending crude down 2.7%57.
• US sanctions $500 million Iranian oil smuggling network as nuclear talks continue; Israel strikes militants in Syria, raising regional tension619.
• US considers equity stakes in mineral companies and pushes for minerals deals with Ukraine; minerals agreement signing delayed by Kyiv111618.
• Google and Apple reportedly close to a mid-2025 deal to integrate Gemini AI into Siri, potentially announced at WWDC in June12.
• Nvidia CEO urges Trump to revise AI chip export rules, citing competition from China’s Huawei and the need for on-shore manufacturing13.
• Crypto sector active: Coinbase expands Bitcoin-backed loan product14, Galaxy Digital targets Nasdaq listing17, Ripple’s $4–5B bid for Circle rejected as Circle eyes IPO15, and Visa launches stablecoin cards in Latin America20.

Market Commentary

Markets are closing out April on a defensive note as a string of soft US macro data and ongoing policy uncertainty weigh on risk sentiment. The first contraction in US GDP since 2022—driven by a rush of pre-tariff imports and tepid consumer spending—has rattled confidence, especially with ADP payrolls missing by a wide margin13. These signals of slowing growth have prompted traders to price in a full 125 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with a June cut now seen as more likely than not8. The combination of weaker economic momentum and sticky PCE inflation (headline 3.6%, core at a three-year low but still above target) leaves the Fed in a tricky spot, balancing recession risk against persistent price pressures110.

Equities remain under pressure, with major indices deep in correction territory YTD. Political rhetoric is heating up as President Trump blames the previous administration for the selloff and promises a post-tariff economic renaissance2. The Senate’s upcoming vote on revoking Trump’s tariff authority injects further headline risk; a successful resolution could spark a short-term relief rally, but a White House veto remains likely4. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the future of US trade policy is already distorting economic behavior, as evidenced by the import-driven GDP drag1.

In commodities, oil prices are under renewed pressure after Saudi Arabia signaled it will not support supply cuts and is prepared for a period of low prices to expand market share7. This, combined with a surprise draw in US crude inventories, is keeping energy markets volatile5. The new US sanctions on Iranian oil networks and rising Middle East tensions (with Israel striking targets in Syria) add a geopolitical risk premium, but for now, bearish supply dynamics are dominating619.

In the tech and crypto space, sector-specific headlines are driving relative outperformance and volatility. Google and Apple ’s potential AI partnership could be a catalyst for both stocks and the broader AI ecosystem12, while Nvidia ’s push for export rule changes and on-shore chip manufacturing is a reminder of ongoing US-China tech rivalry13. Crypto markets are buoyed by product innovation (Coinbase loans14, Visa stablecoin cards20) and capital markets activity (Galaxy Digital ’s Nasdaq listing17, Ripple’s failed Circle bid15), underscoring the sector’s resilience and ongoing institutionalization.

Traders should watch for late-day volatility around the Senate tariff vote4, monitor any Fed commentary for clues on the June meeting8, and keep an eye on oil price swings as supply/demand dynamics evolve57. In tech, any updates on the Google -Apple AI deal or chip policy could move mega-cap names1213. In crypto, regulatory and M&A headlines remain key swing factors151720. The crosscurrents of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and policy uncertainty suggest a defensive stance into the close, with a focus on quality, liquidity, and event risk management.

Highlights

• U.S. Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, ending a three-year expansion; inflation remained elevated with core PCE at 3.5%, raising stagflation concerns 1.
• ADP private payrolls rose just 62,000 in April, far below expectations, signaling a softening labor market and increasing recession risk 4.
• U.S. Treasury set $125B quarterly refunding, keeping auction sizes steady and evaluating buyback enhancements, but stressed this is not QE 3.
• Trump administration granted two-year tariff relief for U.S.-assembled autos, aiming to support domestic manufacturing and encourage reshoring 5.
• Major automakers GM, Mercedes, and VW withdrew 2025 earnings guidance and reported profit drops, citing tariff uncertainty and supply chain disruptions 13.
• China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April (16-month low) as tariffs hit exports; Beijing quietly exempted key U.S. goods (pharma, chips, aircraft parts) from 125% tariffs to ease tensions 26.
• TSMC broke ground on a third Arizona chip plant, committing $100B and 40,000 jobs, reinforcing U.S. semiconductor supply chains amid trade tensions 9.
• Microsoft froze 1.5GW of U.S. data center projects but plans a 40% expansion in Europe, signaling a shift in AI/cloud infrastructure investment 10.
• Gold demand surged 1% in Q1, driven by a 170% jump in investment and record Chinese reserves, as investors seek safe havens amid trade and economic uncertainty 17.
• BlackRock filed to tokenize $150B Treasury fund shares on Ethereum; Grayscale and VanEck pressed SEC for crypto ETF staking approvals, signaling ongoing digital asset adoption 1516.
• Novartis agreed to acquire Regulus Therapeutics for up to $1.7B, targeting kidney disease, highlighting continued M&A activity in biotech 14.
• Geopolitical tensions remain high: US/UK airstrikes in Yemen, Israel’s warning strike in Syria, and US-Philippines joint air missions in the South China Sea; Ukraine poised to sign a major mineral investment deal with the U.S. 781820.

Market Commentary

Markets face a sharp pivot in narrative this morning as U.S. macro data signals a potential regime shift. The first quarterly GDP contraction since mid-2022, driven by a pre-tariff import surge and slowing consumer spending, has rekindled stagflation fears—especially with inflation metrics remaining stubbornly above target 1. The weak ADP payrolls print compounds concerns about growth momentum, and prediction markets now price in a 74% chance of U.S. recession this year 41. The Treasury’s steady refunding signals no immediate liquidity shock, but the buyback review hints at subtle shifts in market management 3.

Equities are likely to open under pressure, especially in cyclical and trade-exposed sectors. Automakers are flashing red: GM, Mercedes, and VW’s withdrawal of guidance and profit warnings underscore the disruptive power of tariffs and policy uncertainty 13. However, domestic manufacturing initiatives—such as Trump’s auto tariff relief 5 and TSMC 's $100B Arizona expansion—could provide medium-term support for U.S. industrials and chipmakers 9. Caterpillar 's earnings miss but pre-market resilience suggests some bad news was already priced in, though flat 2025 guidance reflects caution 11.

Fixed income markets are poised for volatility. The growth miss and soft jobs data should support Treasuries, but sticky inflation and Treasury’s steady auction schedule may limit the rally 134. Watch for curve flattening as stagflation risk rises. Commodities are mixed: gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows and central bank buying, with Chinese demand at multi-year highs 17. Energy markets may see upward pressure due to ongoing Middle East tensions, with US/UK airstrikes in Yemen and regional instability in the Red Sea and South China Sea 720.

On the currency front, the dollar may see two-way risk: weaker U.S. data argues for Fed easing, but global growth concerns and safe-haven flows could provide support 14. The yuan remains under pressure amid soft Chinese PMIs and export headwinds, though Beijing’s targeted tariff exemptions signal a pragmatic approach to trade friction 26.

Digital assets remain in focus as BlackRock 's tokenization push and ETF staking debates signal continued institutionalization of crypto, even as regulatory uncertainty persists 1516. Traders should watch for further headlines on U.S. monetary policy, any Fed commentary on stagflation, and developments in trade negotiations—particularly any signs of tariff de-escalation or new fiscal support from Beijing. Defensive positioning and volatility hedges are warranted as macro and geopolitical crosscurrents intensify.

Highlights

• Trump reaffirms 145% tariff on Chinese goods, dismisses recession concerns; U.S. public remains wary of economic fallout1.
• Trump administration mulls scrapping tiered AI chip export controls, favoring government-to-government agreements; Nvidia shares edge up2.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slashes Q3 guidance, citing delayed customer decisions and margin pressure; stock plunges 20% after hours3.
• Visa beats Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, announces $30B share buyback; stock gains 1–2% post-close4.
• Snap reports 14% revenue growth and user milestone but withholds Q2 guidance; stock drops 11% after hours Snap Inc. 5.
• Starbucks misses Q2 earnings and revenue forecasts, posts fifth straight quarter of global comp sales decline; CEO touts turnaround plan Starbucks Corp 6.
• Bank of Japan to hold rate at 0.5%, delays hikes to October amid U.S. tariffs and downgraded growth outlook7.
• Elon Musk’s DOGE role reportedly shields companies from $2.37B in liabilities; Trump praises cost-cutting, critics warn of service cuts8.
• Trump launches $1T Golden Dome missile defense shield and announces 21 new F-15EX jets for Michigan's Selfridge base Lockheed Martin Corp. 9, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. 9, Boeing Company 10.
• GM recalls nearly 600,000 vehicles for engine failure; Ford recalls 128,889 for camera issues11.
• Toyota and Waymo partner to bring autonomous tech to Lexus SUVs, citing 81% fewer crashes than human drivers Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares) 13, Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock 13, Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock 13.
• New Jersey court grants Kalshi preliminary injunction, affirming CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts; regulatory battles continue15.

Market Commentary

Risk sentiment remains fragile as U.S. trade policy takes center stage. President Trump’s unwavering commitment to a 145% tariff on Chinese imports signals a hardening stance on trade, raising the specter of renewed global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures1. While Trump insists China will absorb the tariffs, consumer and business sentiment surveys suggest broad skepticism and recession concerns, which could weigh on equities with high China exposure and global cyclicals1.

Tech sector volatility is front and center. SMCI’s sharp guidance cut and subsequent 20% after-hours selloff highlight the fragility in AI hardware demand, especially as customers delay platform decisions3. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s consideration to overhaul AI chip export controls injects additional uncertainty but provided a modest boost to Nvidia2. Investors should brace for further swings in semiconductor names as policy clarity evolves.

Consumer and fintech names delivered mixed results. Visa’s robust Q2 print and $30B buyback underscore resilience in payments and consumer spending, supporting the broader financials sector4. In contrast, Snap’s strong user growth was overshadowed by the lack of forward guidance, triggering an 11% after-hours drop Snap Inc. 5. Starbucks’ earnings miss and continued same-store sales weakness reinforce challenges in discretionary spending, despite management’s optimism on turnaround efforts Starbucks Corp 6.

On the macro front, the Bank of Japan’s decision to pause rate hikes in response to U.S. tariffs and a downgraded growth outlook signals caution across global central banks7. Expect the yen to remain under pressure, with knock-on effects for carry trades and emerging market currencies. Defense and aerospace may see tailwinds from Trump’s $1 trillion missile shield and fighter jet announcements Lockheed Martin Corp. 9, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. 9, Boeing Company 10, while automakers face headwinds from large-scale recalls11.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor further developments in U.S.-China trade rhetoric, AI export policy, and consumer spending trends. Watch for spillover into global risk assets, particularly in sectors sensitive to tariffs and supply chains. Regulatory headlines—whether from Musk’s government dealings8 or Kalshi’s legal battles15—underscore the importance of policy risk in today’s market landscape. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors digest both macro and micro crosscurrents.