TL;DR

S&P 500 earnings beat sharply; Nvidia, AI hardware, and crypto ETFs see strong inflows; Fed cuts expected.

Highlights

• S&P 500 Q2 EPS rose 11% (vs. 4% expected), with 60% of firms beating by >1 SD; Q3 estimates revised up, supporting fresh index highs 3.
• Nvidia shipment and price targets raised by Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald ahead of earnings 6; SoftBank to build AI hardware in Ohio via $375M Foxconn plant deal 8.
• US spot Ethereum ETFs posted $2.85B in weekly inflows (record); Bitcoin ETFs saw $548M; Solana funds also strong. Ethereum unstaking queue hit $3.8B, raising near-term supply concerns 1019.
• Bitcoin fell below $115,000 amid $534M in liquidations and hot US PPI data 5; MicroStrategy added 430 BTC, now holding 629,376 coins 15.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts three Fed rate cuts in 2025 (starting September) due to sharply slowing job growth 7.
• PBOC set strongest yuan fix since 2024, injected 266.5B yuan liquidity 4; held rates steady despite weak July data 13. China’s rare earth exports up 69% as trade surplus hit $1.2T 12.
• Pipeline strike halted Russian oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia 2; Russian drones struck SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine, adding to energy market risks 11.
• Japan’s FSA to approve first yen stablecoin (JPYC); Nikkei 225 closed at a record high, led by exporters as yen weakened to ¥147.5 9.
• Tesla halved UK lease rates after a 60% July sales drop, intensifying EV price competition in Europe 14.
• Thoma Bravo in advanced talks to acquire Dayforce (AI HR software) for $9B; shares surged up to 27% pre-market 16.
• Trump outlined Ukraine peace terms requiring Kyiv to drop NATO bid and Crimea claim 1; US–South Korea launched joint drills amid regional tensions 17; Iran to resume IAEA nuclear talks 18.

Commentary

US equities remain supported by strong fundamentals, with S&P 500 earnings growth far outpacing expectations and analysts revising Q3 forecasts higher 3. Tech and AI hardware continue to attract capital and analyst upgrades, as seen in Nvidia’s upward shipment revisions 6 and SoftBank’s US manufacturing push 8. These trends reinforce the current momentum in large-cap tech and AI-related names.

Digital asset markets are seeing robust inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs 10, but the record-high Ethereum unstaking queue (~$3.8B) 19 and recent Bitcoin volatility—driven by leveraged liquidations and hotter-than-expected PPI 5—highlight ongoing two-way risk. MicroStrategy ’s continued accumulation of Bitcoin underscores institutional confidence 15, but traders should monitor for further deleveraging and the impact of Ethereum unlocks on near-term prices 19.

Macro signals are mixed. Goldman Sachs ’ call for three Fed cuts this year is based on sharply slowing US job growth 7, though sticky inflation (PPI) may complicate the Fed’s path 5. In China, the PBOC’s strong yuan fix and liquidity injection aim to stabilize outflows 4, but weak domestic data 13 and a surge in rare earth exports reflect persistent growth and trade imbalances 12. These factors could affect global risk sentiment and commodity flows.

Energy markets face renewed supply risks after a pipeline strike halted Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia 2, and Russian drone strikes hit an oil depot in Ukraine 11. These disruptions may add volatility to European energy and refined product markets. In corporate news, M&A remains active with Thoma Bravo’s $9B Dayforce bid 16, and competitive pressures are evident as Tesla slashes UK lease rates amid falling sales 14.

Geopolitics remain a background risk: Trump’s Ukraine comments 1, US–South Korea military drills 17, and Iran’s nuclear talks 18 could all influence risk appetite, but no immediate market-moving developments are expected for US trading today.

TL;DR

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, tight credit spreads, and rising US debt/consumer stress in focus.

Highlights

• Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday is key for September rate-cut expectations; markets price in 85% odds of a cut 1.
• US Treasury yields hit multi-month lows; investment-grade credit spreads tighten to 73 bps, lowest since 1998 23.
• US national debt tops $37T; interest costs reach $1.2T/year, with rising delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies 10.
• July US CPI rises to 2.7% YoY; tariffs begin to impact core goods prices; consumer sentiment drops to 58.6 19.
• Trump pauses new China tariffs after Putin talks; India faces higher US tariffs over Russian oil imports 5.
• Oil prices edge down as Trump-Putin meeting reduces near-term risk of new sanctions on Russian crude 4.
• Israel prepares for Gaza City assault amid nationwide strike and protests; Red Sea disruptions persist after Israeli strike in Yemen 6920.
• Nvidia hits $4.4T market cap; US-China chip tensions persist as Nvidia resumes China exports with new 15% fee 1117.
• Ethereum ETFs see record $2.9B weekly inflows; large ETH unstaking queue may add volatility. Chainlink rallies on whale accumulation and buyback 1314.
• Air Canada strike grounds 700 flights, disrupting North American travel; government intervention ongoing 18.
• Japan’s FSA approves first yen-backed stablecoin (JPYC), launching this fall 12.

Commentary

US traders head into Jackson Hole week with markets firmly pricing in a September Fed rate cut, but Powell’s Friday speech will be the main event for direction 1. Treasuries have rallied, pushing yields to their lowest since May, while investment-grade credit spreads are now at their tightest in over two decades—both signs of strong demand for high-quality assets and expectations of easier policy 23. However, the macro backdrop is less reassuring: US national debt has breached $37 trillion, interest costs are at record highs, and delinquencies and bankruptcies are rising, particularly in consumer and industrial sectors 10.

July’s CPI data showed inflation ticking up to 2.7% year-on-year, with tariffs beginning to put upward pressure on core goods prices 19. While retail sales rose modestly, real spending is flat and consumer sentiment has dropped to levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis 19. This week’s earnings from major retailers will offer more insight into the health of US consumers and the impact of tariffs and inflation on margins 19.

Geopolitics remain in focus but with a slightly lower risk premium: Trump’s pause on new China tariffs following talks with Putin removes an immediate threat to US-China trade, though India faces higher duties over Russian oil 5. Oil prices have softened as the risk of new sanctions on Russian crude recedes, but the Middle East remains volatile 4. Israel is preparing a major Gaza City assault amid domestic unrest and ongoing Red Sea disruptions, which could keep energy and shipping markets on alert 6920.

In tech, Nvidia’s market cap surge and robust cloud capex forecasts highlight ongoing AI investment, but US-China chip policy remains a risk factor as Nvidia resumes China exports under a new fee structure 1117. Crypto flows remain strong, with Ethereum ETFs seeing record inflows and Chainlink rallying on whale accumulation, though a large ETH unstaking queue could add near-term volatility 1314. Japan’s approval of a yen-backed stablecoin expands the global digital asset landscape 12.

Traders should monitor Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole, retail earnings for consumer and tariff signals, and any escalation in geopolitical hotspots. With risk premiums compressed and macro headwinds building, markets are susceptible to shifts in rate or growth expectations.

TL;DR

U.S. weighs Russia oil sanctions; Trump–Putin talks yield no Ukraine deal; Treasuries hit record foreign demand.

Highlights

• U.S. weighs direct sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, raising risk of global oil supply disruption if Ukraine talks stall 1.
• Trump–Putin Alaska summit ends without Ukraine cease-fire; both sides report progress but no deal 2.
• White House cancels planned U.S.–Russia luncheon; Trump departs Anchorage with no immediate breakthrough 11.
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries reach record $9.13 trillion in June, with Japan and UK increasing exposure 3.
• CBO warns Trump’s new tax law could trigger up to $491B in Medicare cuts without Congressional action 5.
• Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy receives FDA accelerated approval for MASH, driving 5–6% post-market share gain 4.
• OpenAI staffers seek $6B secondary share sale at a $500B valuation, potentially surpassing SpaceX as top private startup 7.
• Gemini files for Nasdaq IPO despite $283M H1 net loss, betting on new wallet and product diversification 8.
• U.S. appeals court pauses order requiring Argentina to surrender its YPF stake, giving time to appeal $16.1B judgment 6.
• Canadian PM Carney to visit Mexico in September for trade talks amid new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods 9.
• Higgsfield AI launches free instant product-placement video tool, targeting advertising and content production markets 13.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated as the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska ended without a Ukraine cease-fire, though both sides indicated progress and willingness to continue talks 2. The lack of a breakthrough keeps pressure on energy markets, especially as the U.S. considers direct sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil 1. If implemented, these measures could disrupt global crude flows and add upward pressure to oil prices, with knock-on effects for inflation-sensitive sectors and European equities 1.

Fixed income markets saw continued strong foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, with holdings reaching a new high in June 3. This persistent appetite, particularly from Japan and the UK, may help stabilize yields for now, but the CBO’s warning on potential Medicare cuts tied to Trump’s tax law highlights growing fiscal risks 5. While Congress has previously waived such automatic cuts, the issue could inject volatility into rates and policy-sensitive sectors as budget negotiations approach 5.

In equities, Novo Nordisk’s expanded FDA label for Wegovy strengthens the GLP-1 segment and drove notable after-hours gains, supporting the healthcare and biotech space 4. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s pursuit of a $500B valuation in a secondary share sale and Gemini’s IPO filing reflect ongoing investor interest in AI and digital assets, although profitability and regulatory clarity remain key concerns for these sectors 78. Higgsfield AI’s new video tool signals further disruption potential in advertising and media 13.

Elsewhere, the U.S. appeals court’s stay on Argentina’s YPF asset transfer provides temporary relief for the country but leaves sovereign risk unresolved 6. Trade developments remain in focus as Canada and Mexico coordinate responses to new U.S. tariffs, which could impact North American supply chains and select industrials 9.

TL;DR

Trump to hike steel and chip tariffs; retail sales steady, sentiment weakens; UnitedHealth, Alphabet surge.

Highlights

• Trump to impose new tariffs on imported steel next week and on semiconductors the following week; chip tariffs could rise to 100–300% over time, with possible exemptions for firms investing in U.S. facilities 1.
• Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for Ukraine ceasefire talks; U.S. signals possible security guarantees for Kyiv outside NATO 2.
• U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in July, matching expectations; June revised higher; Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 58.6 with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% for the next year 168.
• Alphabet hits record highs above $206, driven by AI optimism and anticipation of a favorable court ruling 11.
• UnitedHealth surges 13% after Berkshire Hathaway reveals a new stake; Nucor up 6% on Berkshire buying; Applied Materials drops 14% on weak guidance and U.S.-China chip tensions 5.
• Solar stocks rally after Treasury guidance allows retroactive clean-energy tax credits; Sunrun up 28%, Nextracker up 12% 7.
• CoreWeave falls 22% post-IPO lockup as JPMorgan and insiders sell shares 6.
• Fed ends “Novel Activities” crypto oversight, returning digital asset supervision to routine bank exams 3.
• Brevan Howard discloses $2.3B stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF; other institutions increase Bitcoin ETF holdings 4.
• New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index jumps to 11.9, beating forecasts; employment growth slows 9.
• WASDE: U.S. corn stocks rise above forecast; soybean and cotton stocks fall; crude inventories build unexpectedly; oil rigs increase by one 17.
• Fed’s Goolsbee urges caution on inflation uptick, signals rates need not stay high if data moderates 20.

Commentary

U.S. equities are navigating a session defined by trade policy, macro data, and sector rotation. The announcement of new tariffs on steel and semiconductors by President Trump is a clear escalation in trade policy, with potential for significant impact on tech and industrial supply chains 1. The prospect of chip tariffs reaching up to 300% introduces headline risk for semiconductor and electronics names, especially as details and potential exemptions are awaited 1. Meanwhile, the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska introduces geopolitical uncertainty, with the outcome of Ukraine ceasefire talks and possible U.S. security guarantees for Kyiv likely to influence defense and energy sectors 2.

On the macro front, July retail sales met expectations, showing continued consumer resilience 16, but the drop in Michigan sentiment and higher inflation expectations point to growing consumer unease 8. The Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside, indicating regional factory strength 9, though broader industrial production remains mixed 16. Fed Governor Goolsbee’s comments suggest the central bank is monitoring inflation closely but is not committed to keeping rates elevated if data moderates 20, leaving fixed income markets attentive to upcoming inflation prints and Fed signals.

Sector-wise, institutional flows are moving markets. UnitedHealth and Nucor rallied on Berkshire Hathaway’s new stakes, while Applied Materials fell sharply on weak guidance and ongoing U.S.-China chip tensions 5. Solar stocks outperformed after Treasury guidance improved clean-energy project economics 7. In crypto, the Fed’s return to routine oversight 3 and Brevan Howard’s large Bitcoin ETF position 4 highlight ongoing institutional adoption. CoreWeave’s post-lockup decline underscores continued pressure on recent IPOs and blockchain-adjacent equities 6.

Commodities saw mixed signals: WASDE data showed higher corn stocks and lower soybean/cotton stocks, which could pressure respective ag futures. Crude inventories unexpectedly rose, limiting upside in energy despite a small increase in active oil rigs 17.

Traders should watch for further details on the tariff rollout and any late headlines from the Alaska summit, as both could trigger end-of-day volatility 12. Sector rotation and institutional positioning remain key drivers into the close.

TL;DR

Trump-Putin Alaska summit, China macro misses, and U.S. Bitcoin reserve drive pre-market focus.

Highlights

• Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for Ukraine truce and arms talks; sanctions relief and nuclear deal on table 1.
• Ukraine strikes Russian Caspian port, damaging vessel with Iranian drone parts ahead of summit 5.
• U.S. Treasury to establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using seized coins; Senator Lummis proposes gold revaluation to fund further accumulation 2.
• Tether mints $1B USDT, stablecoin supply surges $9.5B in a month; Hyperliquid DEX posts record $7.7M daily fees 917.
• China’s July industrial output and retail sales miss forecasts; property sector weakness deepens, raising stimulus expectations 3.
• China warns foreign firms on rare-earth stockpiling, signaling risk of tighter export controls 4.
• Port of LA sees record July imports as retailers front-load ahead of tariffs; Chinese-built ships reroute before new U.S. port fees 11.
• Bridgewater, Tiger Global boost Microsoft/Netflix AI bets, cut $1.4B China exposure; European AI stocks fall on disruption concerns 12.
• Trump administration to cut federal workforce by 12.5% in 2025 following Supreme Court ruling; legal challenges ongoing 6.
• Japan Q2 GDP beats at 1% annualized on export rush before U.S. tariffs; BoJ faces policy pressure as tariffs threaten profits 167.

Commentary

Geopolitics is front and center as Trump and Putin convene in Alaska for talks on a Ukraine cease-fire and potential arms-control agreement 1. The market will be watching for any sign of sanctions relief for Russia or a framework on nuclear arms, both of which could move energy, defense, and European assets 1. Ukraine’s overnight strike on a Russian port underscores ongoing conflict risk, but the summit’s outcome will likely set the tone for risk assets and commodity markets in the near term 5.

Macro headwinds from China continue, with July data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output and retail sales, and deepening property market weakness 3. This reinforces concerns about global demand and could weigh on commodities, EM equities, and cyclicals 3. China’s warning to foreign firms on rare-earth stockpiling adds another layer of supply chain risk, potentially supporting U.S. and allied efforts to diversify sourcing of critical minerals 4.

On the digital asset front, the U.S. Treasury’s move to formalize a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the surge in stablecoin issuance highlight crypto’s growing integration into the financial system 29. Record activity on decentralized exchanges suggests robust liquidity and institutional interest 17. However, these developments come as regulatory scrutiny tightens in Asia and as U.S. lawmakers debate reserve asset strategies 152.

In equities, major hedge funds are increasing exposure to U.S. tech and AI leaders while cutting China holdings, mirroring a broader risk-off stance toward emerging markets 12. The record import volumes at U.S. ports—driven by tariff front-running—are likely to reverse in coming months, with shipping and logistics volatility expected as new port fees on Chinese-built vessels take effect 11. Meanwhile, Japan’s stronger-than-expected GDP print gives the BoJ some policy room, but U.S. tariffs remain a headwind for Japanese corporates 167.

Traders should monitor the Alaska summit press conference, U.S. data releases, and developments in shipping and crypto markets for near-term direction 11129. Sector rotation and volatility remain likely as macro and geopolitical risks remain elevated.

TL;DR

Berkshire shifts to UnitedHealth, Applied Materials drops on weak outlook, Intel surges on US stake talks.

Highlights

• Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.6B stake in UnitedHealth , trimmed Apple by 7%, and exited T-Mobile US ; major hedge funds also rotated into UnitedHealth and chipmakers1.
• Applied Materials posted strong Q3 results but guided Q4 revenue and EPS below consensus; shares fell 11% after hours2.
• Beyond Meat is reportedly preparing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after a 99% share price decline from its 2019 peak3.
• The Trump administration is in talks to take a government stake in Intel to support domestic chip manufacturing; Intel shares rose 7%4.
• Jefferies’ David Zervos, a potential Fed chair pick, called for an immediate 50bp rate cut, echoing broader market calls for easing7.
• SEC postponed decisions on Bitwise and 21Shares spot Solana ETFs to October, extending regulatory uncertainty for crypto ETF launches6.
• U.S.–Brazil trade tensions escalated with a new 50% tariff on Brazilian exports and visa revocations; Brazil is seeking deeper ties with China and India9.
• Louisiana filed suit against Roblox over alleged child safety failures, increasing regulatory scrutiny on the gaming platform5.
• Senator Lummis revived the BITCOIN Act after Treasury ruled out imminent federal Bitcoin purchases, keeping crypto reserves in legislative focus8.
• A federal judge voided Trump-era directives restricting school DEI programs, preserving access to campus diversity initiatives11.
• LA28 will allow venue naming rights at the 2028 Olympics, a first for the Games, opening new sponsorship revenue streams12.
• Playboy is relocating its headquarters to Miami Beach, reflecting continued corporate migration to South Florida13.

Commentary

Institutional positioning is shifting, with Berkshire Hathaway and several major hedge funds moving capital into UnitedHealth and select chipmakers, while trimming exposure to mega-cap tech names like Apple . This rotation reflects a growing preference for health care and hardware amid ongoing tariff volatility and sector-specific headwinds. The disclosed exits from T-Mobile US and Bank of America further highlight a selective approach to sector risk1.

Semiconductors remain a focal point. Applied Materials ’ strong Q3 was overshadowed by a notably weak Q4 outlook, driven by Chinese demand digestion, export-license delays, and uneven chipmaker orders. This led to the stock’s sharpest post-earnings drop in over two decades2. In contrast, Intel shares rallied on news of potential government investment to boost U.S. chip manufacturing, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to policy support for domestic tech supply chains4.

Macro policy signals are mixed. Calls for immediate Fed rate cuts are intensifying, with Jefferies’ Zervos advocating a 50bp reduction despite persistent inflation pressures. While no immediate action is expected, the debate could influence yield curves and equity sentiment7. In crypto, the SEC’s delay on Solana ETF decisions and revived legislative efforts around federal Bitcoin reserves keep digital assets in a holding pattern, with regulatory clarity a key near-term catalyst68.

Geopolitical and regulatory risks are rising. U.S.–Brazil trade frictions and new tariffs may impact Latin American commodity flows and related equities9. Legal action against Roblox and the preservation of DEI programs add headline risk for specific names but are unlikely to drive broader market moves511. The LA28 naming rights policy and Playboy’s Miami relocation reflect evolving trends in sponsorship and corporate real estate, but have limited direct market impact1213.

Traders should monitor sector rotation into health care and U.S.-centric hardware, chip sector volatility, Fed commentary, and regulatory developments in crypto and trade policy.

TL;DR

US PPI jumps above forecast; Fed cut odds trimmed; BlackRock Bitcoin ETF tops $90B AUM.

Highlights

• US July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, both well above forecasts; core PPI up 0.9% MoM (3.7% YoY), driven by services inflation 1.
• Initial jobless claims dipped to 224,000; continuing claims fell to 1.953 million, signaling a still-stable labor market 5.
• Fed funds futures price in a 92–96% chance of a 25bp rate cut in September, but odds of a larger move have faded after the hot PPI 3.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified he is not calling for aggressive Fed cuts and ruled out gold revaluation or crypto purchases for reserves 418.
• White House considering Section 232 tariffs on imported generic drugs, citing national security and supply chain concerns 6.
• Bridgewater Associates exited all US-listed Chinese equities (~$1.4B), reallocating into US tech, AI, and select consumer names 10.
• Apple restored blood-oxygen monitoring to US Apple Watches via software update; Masimo shares fell on the news 8.
• Ulta Beauty and Target to end their 600-store partnership in August 2026; both stocks traded lower on the announcement 9.
• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) surpassed $90B AUM, with spot Bitcoin ETFs now holding ~6.5% of BTC supply 12.
• US Treasury will halt sales of its $15–20B bitcoin reserve, removing a source of supply from the market 2.
• Coinbase acquired Deribit for $2.9B, expanding into crypto options 11; Citigroup is considering stablecoin and crypto ETF custody services as banks move toward dollar-backed stablecoins under the GENIUS Act 1315.
• CoreWeave shares fell 10% as post-IPO lockup expired, pressuring other recent listings 17.

Commentary

A hotter-than-expected July PPI print is weighing on risk sentiment, with both headline and core readings sharply above consensus and services inflation leading the move 1. Treasury yields rose and the dollar gained as traders reassessed the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing 1. However, futures still overwhelmingly price in a 25bp rate cut for September, with bets on a larger cut now off the table 3. Labor market data remains steady, with jobless claims still in the range that signals stability, but the combination of sticky inflation and only gradual cooling in employment complicates the policy outlook 5.

Sector-specific news is driving notable moves. Apple ’s restoration of blood-oxygen monitoring to US Apple Watches removes an overhang ahead of new product launches, while Masimo shares dropped on the workaround 8. The decision by Ulta and Target to end their partnership in 2026 is pressuring both stocks and raises questions about future beauty retail strategies 9. Bridgewater’s exit from US-listed Chinese equities and rotation into US tech and AI names underscores persistent geopolitical and regulatory risks tied to China exposure 10.

Digital assets remain in focus. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has crossed $90B AUM, intensifying a supply squeeze as the US Treasury halts bitcoin sales and spot ETFs hold a growing share of circulating Bitcoin 122. Coinbase ’s acquisition of Deribit strengthens its position in crypto derivatives 11, while traditional banks like Citigroup are preparing to enter stablecoin and crypto ETF custody, responding to the new GENIUS Act 1315. Regulatory clarity is expected to be a near-term catalyst, with the SEC set to outline new digital asset rules 14.

Traders should watch for late-session volatility in rate-sensitive sectors, crypto-linked equities, and consumer names exposed to supply chain or trade policy shifts. The interplay between inflation data, Fed expectations, and sector rotation will likely drive market direction into the September FOMC.

TL;DR

Bitcoin hits record $124K; U.S.-Russia summit may trigger new sanctions; AI capex, TeraWulf-Google deal in focus.

Highlights

• U.S.-Russia Alaska summit Friday: Treasury signals possible tougher sanctions if Ukraine talks stall; Putin hints at nuclear pact 12.
• U.S. threatens secondary sanctions on India, Europe over Russian oil imports; U.S.-India trade tensions rise 1.
• Trump eases private space-launch rules, proposes permanent moon base; NASA plans to cut key climate satellites, drawing industry pushback 4.
• Bitcoin hits all-time high above $124,000 on Fed rate-cut bets, regulatory tailwinds; Treasury halts Bitcoin sales, holds $15–$20B in reserves 78.
• Binance Coin and Ether also reach record highs 128; Coinbase expands USDC on Solana, cuts stablecoin fees 13.
• U.S. 30-year mortgage rate drops to 6.67%; refinancing up 23% as rate-cut expectations build 11.
• Adyen falls 19% on revenue miss and cut growth outlook 6; Tapestry drops 16% on tariff-hit profit guidance 19; Deere trims 2025 outlook on weak ag demand 5.
• AI infrastructure spending to top $3T by 2028 9; Google takes 8% stake in TeraWulf ’s $3.7B AI deal 10; Foxconn profit jumps 27% on AI server demand 20.
• China may direct state firms to absorb unsold housing stock; Evergrande liquidation highlights sector distress 3.
• U.S. Treasury criticizes Bank of Japan as yen strengthens; USD/JPY near three-week lows on narrowing rate differentials 18.
• Aid groups say Israeli rules have halted all relief trucks to Gaza; humanitarian crisis worsens 15.

Commentary

Markets are opening with a risk-on tone as crypto assets surge to new highs, led by Bitcoin ’s move above $124,000 8. The rally is supported by expectations for a September Fed rate cut, a weaker dollar, and regulatory reforms that have expanded crypto’s reach into retirement plans and banking 8. The Treasury’s halt on further Bitcoin sales removes a potential supply headwind 7, while stablecoin activity is accelerating with Coinbase’s USDC integrations and fee reductions 13. Crypto-related equities and infrastructure names, such as TeraWulf , are likely to remain active, especially after Google ’s $1.8B guarantee and 8% stake 10.

AI and data-center infrastructure remain a central investment theme. Big Tech faces a $3 trillion capex bill through 2028 9, with Google ’s TeraWulf deal and Foxconn’s strong AI server results underscoring the sector’s momentum 1020. However, Adyen ’s sharp drop on weak cross-border volumes 6 and Tapestry ’s tariff-driven profit warning 19 highlight that not all tech and consumer names are immune to macro headwinds or shifting trade policy. Deere ’s reduced outlook points to continued softness in ag equipment and commodity-linked demand 5.

Geopolitics are in focus ahead of the U.S.-Russia Alaska summit. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s warning of potential new sanctions—especially secondary measures targeting India and Europe over Russian oil—could impact energy markets, global trade, and select EM currencies 1. The U.S. Treasury’s criticism of the Bank of Japan, alongside narrowing rate differentials, has pushed the yen higher and USD/JPY to recent lows 18; traders should watch for any BoJ or Treasury intervention if volatility persists.

On the rates front, the sharp drop in U.S. mortgage rates is fueling a refinancing surge, signaling that lower yields are starting to filter through to the real economy 11. In China, state intervention in the property market is under discussion amid ongoing sector distress, which could have indirect effects on global credit sentiment 3. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues, though immediate market impact appears limited 15.

TL;DR

Goldman sees three 2025 Fed cuts; Cisco beats on AI orders; Google invests $9B in Oklahoma AI/cloud.

Highlights

• • Goldman Sachs forecasts Fed rate cuts at all three remaining 2025 FOMC meetings; sees two more in 2026 1.
• Fed’s Goolsbee calls upcoming meetings “live,” with policy path dependent on inflation and labor data 2.
• Cisco beats Q4 estimates on strong AI orders but issues cautious guidance; stock slips ~2% after hours 3.
• Google to invest $9 billion in Oklahoma for cloud and AI expansion, its largest private investment in the state 5.
• Google reverses Play Store policy, allowing non-custodial crypto wallets to remain, easing regulatory concerns 6.
• Robinhood reports July user and asset growth, but shares fall 4% on margin risk worries 7.
• Citron’s Andrew Left increases short position in Palantir , calling it “beyond overvalued” post-earnings 8.
• NY Attorney General sues Zelle operator Early Warning Services for $1B in alleged fraud lapses 4.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent urges Congress to ban single-stock trading by lawmakers 9.
• U.S. seizes $700 million in assets linked to Venezuela’s Maduro 11.
• Argentina rolls over 61% of peso debt; July inflation rises to 1.9% amid currency volatility 12.
• SpaceX completes first ground test of Starship Version 3 at Cape Canaveral 15.

Commentary

The session’s macro focus was on monetary policy, with Goldman Sachs now projecting Fed rate cuts at each of the remaining 2025 meetings and two more in 2026 1. This aligns with dovish market expectations, but Fed’s Goolsbee emphasized that upcoming meetings are “live” and data-dependent, especially with services inflation showing renewed pressure 2. Rate-sensitive sectors may stay volatile as traders parse incoming inflation and labor reports ahead of September’s FOMC 12.

Tech and AI demand remain front and center. Cisco ’s Q4 beat was driven by AI infrastructure orders exceeding $2 billion for the year, but a cautious outlook led to a post-market decline 3. Google’s $9 billion Oklahoma investment signals continued large-scale cloud and AI infrastructure expansion, which could support sentiment for hyperscalers and related suppliers 5. In digital assets, Google’s reversal on non-custodial crypto wallet policy removes an immediate regulatory overhang for crypto developers, but the episode underscores ongoing uncertainty around platform rules 6.

Retail trading activity continues to grow, with Robinhood posting strong July account and asset gains 7. However, the stock’s 4% drop reflects investor caution over increased margin balances and the risk of amplified volatility if sentiment shifts 7. Citron’s short call on Palantir highlights renewed scrutiny of high-valuation tech names after earnings 8.

Regulatory and political actions are also in focus. The NY AG’s lawsuit against Zelle’s operator could pressure banks with exposure to peer-to-peer payments 4. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s push for a ban on single-stock trading by lawmakers adds to the reform debate, though passage is uncertain 9. Internationally, the U.S. continues asset seizures linked to Venezuela 11 and watches Argentina’s partial debt rollover and persistent inflation risks 12.