TL;DR

Israel-Iran attacks disrupt energy, WTI surges 14%; Iran mulls NPT exit; China retail beats, property lags.

Highlights

• Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas facility and reciprocal attacks have disrupted energy infrastructure, pushing WTI crude up 14% and raising supply concerns if the Strait of Hormuz is affected 117.
• Israel claims to have destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missile launchers; Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks, escalating regional risk 18.
• UK maritime authorities report GPS jamming and navigation disruptions for over 900 ships in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting shipping risks 17.
• Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, raising the risk of further Western sanctions and nuclear tensions 2.
• EU foreign ministers will hold an emergency meeting on June 17 to address the Iran-Israel escalation; China has called for immediate de-escalation 34.
• The EU is considering a ban on new Russian gas contracts and tighter banking sanctions; also negotiating a 10% flat US tariff to avoid steeper car duties 56.
• Reports suggest the Trump administration plans to end US military aid to Ukraine, urging Europe to step up support 19.
• China’s May retail sales beat expectations (+6.4% YoY), but property prices and investment continue to decline; industrial output missed forecasts 7.
• Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged and may slow JGB purchase tapering from April 2026 to curb volatility 8.
• ADNOC-led consortium offers A$30bn for Santos, sending shares up 15%; ASX shares fall as ASIC investigates repeated technical failures 1015.
• BlackRock and US Bitcoin ETFs added over 12,700 Bitcoin last week; Japan’s Metaplanet issued $210mn in bonds to buy 1,112 Bitcoin , signaling continued institutional crypto accumulation 1214.
• Polyhedra’s ZKJ and KOGE tokens dropped over 60% after a liquidity drain, triggering $99mn in liquidations and renewed scrutiny of crypto market structure 13.

Commentary

Energy markets are highly sensitive to the latest Israel-Iran escalation, with direct attacks on critical oil and gas infrastructure and ongoing missile exchanges 118. The risk of further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—where navigation interference is already impacting over 900 ships 17—remains a key concern, with oil prices reacting sharply. Traders should closely monitor any signals of further escalation or maritime incidents, as these could drive additional volatility in crude, shipping, and related equities 117.

Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty adds a new layer of geopolitical risk, raising the likelihood of fresh Western sanctions and increased scrutiny on Iranian-linked assets 2. The EU and China’s calls for de-escalation, alongside the upcoming EU emergency meeting, highlight the urgency of diplomatic efforts, but near-term uncertainty remains elevated 34.

Macro data from China show a divergence: consumer spending is recovering, but property and industrial activity remain soft, limiting upside for China-exposed equities and EMFX 7. The Bank of Japan’s steady policy stance and measured approach to JGB tapering aim to contain domestic bond volatility, though global yield pressures persist 8.

In Europe, the EU’s moves to further restrict Russian gas and negotiate tariff terms with the US reflect ongoing adjustments to geopolitical and trade realities 56. The potential shift in US policy on Ukraine could increase Europe’s fiscal and defense burden, with implications for regional risk and the euro 19.

Crypto markets show continued institutional accumulation, with major Bitcoin purchases by BlackRock and Japanese corporates, but the sharp drop in Polyhedra tokens underscores ongoing structural risks 121314. Regulatory scrutiny of crypto market structure is likely to intensify 13.