TL;DR

Trump–Putin meet on Ukraine; China data disappoints, Bridgewater exits; Ether ETF inflows hit records.

Highlights

• Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for Ukraine ceasefire talks; new arms-control proposal possible; EU concerned Kyiv is sidelined1.
• Ukraine strikes Russian Caspian port, damaging ship carrying Iranian drone parts, ahead of U.S.–Russia summit18.
• China’s July industrial output (+5.7%) and retail sales (+3.7%) miss forecasts; recovery momentum slows11.
• Bridgewater fully exits U.S.-listed Chinese equities, citing trade frictions and weak sentiment; shifts to U.S. tech and AI16.
• China warns foreign firms against rare-earth stockpiling; threatens tighter export quotas; files WTO complaint against Canada’s steel curbs36.
• Iran works with Russia and China to block potential EU snapback sanctions; Russia and Iran advance small reactor talks2.
• Russia extends gasoline export ban through September to support domestic supply4.
• Japan’s finance minister reaffirms BoJ independence amid U.S. rate-hike pressure; U.S. tariffs could cut Japanese profits by ¥3.5T5.
• South Korea signals diplomatic reset with North Korea and Japan; regional summits planned7.
• India’s Modi criticizes Indus Waters Treaty, hints at curbing river flows to Pakistan10.
• Saudi Aramco raises $11B from BlackRock-led Jafurah gas asset sale; Saudi wealth fund takes $8B write-down on megaprojects17.
• Coinbase acquires Deribit for $2.9B; Ether ETFs post record $1B+ daily inflows; Tether mints $1B USDT; U.S. Treasury halts Bitcoin sales12131415.
• Peru holds rates at 4.5%; Brazil signals prolonged tight policy stance20.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk is elevated as Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for direct Ukraine ceasefire talks, with the potential for a new arms-control proposal1. The exclusion of Ukraine from the meeting and EU concerns about Kyiv’s interests highlight possible trans-Atlantic rifts1. Ukraine’s strike on a Russian Caspian port underscores ongoing conflict intensity18. Market participants should watch for any announcements on sanctions or security guarantees, as these could impact European equities, energy prices, and the euro 1.

China’s economic data for July point to a slowing recovery, with both industrial output and retail sales missing expectations11. This, combined with Bridgewater’s complete exit from U.S.-listed Chinese equities, signals persistent negative sentiment and ongoing concerns over trade friction16. China’s warnings on rare-earth stockpiling and its WTO case against Canada reinforce the risk of further supply chain disruptions in critical materials36. Investors should expect continued underperformance in China-related assets and monitor developments in global supply chains.

Energy markets remain sensitive: Russia’s gasoline export ban extension tightens refined product supply4, while Saudi Aramco’s $11B midstream asset sale highlights ongoing efforts to monetize infrastructure amid domestic project setbacks17. In Asia, Japan’s government is pushing back on U.S. pressure for BoJ tightening, with tariffs posing a significant profit risk for Japanese corporates5. South Korea’s diplomatic overtures and India’s threats over the Indus Waters Treaty add to regional complexity, though immediate market impact is limited710.

In digital assets, institutional flows into Ether ETFs are surging13, with Coinbase ’s Deribit acquisition12 and Tether ’s $1B USDT minting15 signaling deepening liquidity and product expansion in crypto markets. The U.S. Treasury’s halt on Bitcoin sales removes a supply overhang14. Traders should watch for potential spillover from crypto into broader risk assets, especially as macro volatility persists.

Latin American central banks are diverging: Peru holds rates steady amid subdued inflation, while Brazil signals a prolonged restrictive stance due to sticky services inflation20. This divergence may drive local currency and fixed income moves in the region.