Highlights

• Warren Buffett to retire as Berkshire Hathaway CEO at end-2025; Greg Abel named successor, Buffett to remain adviser.1
• Houthi missile strikes Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, injuring eight and disrupting global air travel; questions raised over Israeli/US missile defense systems.2
• OPEC+ to raise June oil output by 411,000 bpd as Saudi Arabia shifts strategy; Brent near $61, WTI down 6% YTD, raising oversupply concerns.3
• New US tariffs on Chinese imports (effective May 2) end $800 de minimis rule, hitting e-commerce (Shein, Temu) and cutting Meta /Alphabet ad revenues; consumer prices expected to rise.4
• China exempts 25% of US imports, including semiconductors, from tariffs; US revises auto tariffs, signaling a potential easing in trade tensions.5
• President Trump signals possible extension of TikTok’s June 19 US divestiture deadline; ByteDance deal remains in limbo amid ongoing US-China negotiations.6
• Fed expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% on May 7; Powell to remain Chair until May 2026 despite Trump’s pressure for cuts; inflation at 2.3%, unemployment at 4.2%.78
• Apple found in violation of App Store antitrust order; must allow external payment links without commission—Epic Games and Spotify to benefit.9
• DOJ pushes Google to divest ad tech units, share AdX data; Google’s AI training practices under scrutiny in ongoing antitrust case.10
• Shell considers BP takeover as BP shares slide; Shell announces $3.5B buyback amid sector M&A speculation.11
• BlackRock adds $675M in Bitcoin , now holds 607,685 BTC; institutional and legislative support for crypto rising, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing strong inflows.12
• US imposes 25% auto parts tariff, raising car prices and hitting GM ’s outlook by up to $5B; Japanese PM criticizes move.14

Commentary

Markets enter the week on the back of Wall Street’s longest win streak since 2004, with Friday’s rally erasing tariff-driven losses and strong US jobs data (April payrolls +177k) offsetting persistent macro headwinds.13 The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on May 7, as policymakers weigh the inflationary impact of new tariffs and resilient, but cooling, consumer demand—underscored by McDonald’s worst US sales drop since 2020.719 Trump’s confirmation that Powell will remain Fed Chair until 2026 removes near-term uncertainty for rates traders, though political pressure for cuts persists.8

Trade policy remains a major theme. The US “supertax” on Chinese imports (ending the $800 exemption) is already rippling through e-commerce and digital advertising, with Shein and Temu slashing ad spend and US tech giants bracing for lost revenue.4 However, China’s partial tariff rollback—especially on semiconductors—plus US auto tariff revisions, suggest both sides are seeking a tactical de-escalation.5 This could provide relief for select US tech and industrial names, even as auto stocks like GM and Ford face earnings headwinds from the new 25% parts tariff.14

Geopolitical risk is back in focus after a Houthi missile strike on Tel Aviv’s airport exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s missile defense and disrupted global aviation.2 Oil markets, however, are contending with a different shock: OPEC+’s surprise output hike, driven by Saudi policy shifts and political overtures to the US. With Brent languishing near $61 and oversupply fears mounting, energy equities may remain under pressure, even as M&A speculation swirls around Shell ’s possible move on BP .311

In tech, Apple ’s antitrust setback and the DOJ’s aggressive stance toward Google ’s ad business signal an intensifying regulatory environment, with implications for platform margins and digital ad market structure.910 Meanwhile, institutional flows into crypto continue to surge: BlackRock ’s record Bitcoin holdings and the expansion of tokenized assets (including US Treasurys via Goldman Sachs ) highlight the sector’s growing integration with traditional finance.1216 Stablecoin growth and legislative support (BITCOIN Act) add further tailwinds, positioning crypto as a key macro hedge.1215

Traders should watch for: Fed and Powell commentary (Wednesday), further fallout from US-China tariff actions, energy sector M&A headlines, and ongoing regulatory moves in tech. Volatility is likely around Asian FX after the Taiwan dollar’s historic jump and Hong Kong’s intervention, with potential spillovers into US rates and equities if capital flows accelerate.18 Stay nimble—cross-asset correlations remain in flux as policy, politics, and geopolitics collide.