TL;DR

U.S. tariff deadline pressures Asia and EU; Japan political turmoil lifts yen; China boosts commodities.

Highlights

• South Korea and Japan intensify talks with Washington to avert 25% U.S. tariffs on exports by August 1 1.
• EU weighs broader countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, but prioritizes a negotiated settlement 3.
• Japanese ruling coalition loses upper house control; yen strengthens on political uncertainty 4.
• Stellantis warns of €2.3B H1 net loss, citing U.S. tariffs and weaker North America shipments; withdraws guidance 5.
• China launches $167B Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project, driving commodity futures and steel/iron ore prices higher 6.
• China condemns new EU sanctions on its banks over Russia, threatens retaliation; China-EU summit set for July 24 211.
• Russian precious metal exports to China surge 80% to $1B in H1, driven by gold rally and redirected trade 12.
• Ryanair posts record €820M Q1 profit on strong demand; warns Boeing deliveries could be paused if U.S. tariffs imposed 19.
• ECB survey shows euro-area firms trim 1-year inflation view to 2.5%, with trade frictions cited as a drag 20.
• Ethereum rallies to $3,800; Dynamix SPAC to create $1.5B Ether Machine with planned Nasdaq listing 1617.
• OpenAI targets 1M+ GPUs by year-end; London Stock Exchange considers 24-hour trading 1813.

Commentary

Trade policy remains the dominant risk for global markets as the U.S. tariff deadline approaches for Japanese and South Korean exports. Both countries are stepping up diplomatic efforts 1, but the lack of U.S. signals increases the risk of higher levies disrupting Asian supply chains and manufacturing. The EU is preparing possible countermeasures 3 but is still seeking a negotiated outcome, while euro-area corporates are already reporting weaker sentiment and inflation expectations due to ongoing trade frictions 20.

Japan’s political landscape adds further uncertainty after the ruling coalition lost upper house control, strengthening the yen and raising the risk of legislative gridlock 4. This weakens Tokyo’s hand in tariff talks and could delay fiscal or monetary responses, with potential spillovers into Japanese equities and rates markets. Meanwhile, Stellantis ’ steep loss and guidance withdrawal highlight the direct earnings impact of tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, especially for global automakers 5.

In commodities, China’s launch of the massive Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project has lifted steel and iron ore prices to multi-month highs, reflecting expectations for increased infrastructure demand 6. Russian precious metal exports to China have surged as Moscow redirects flows away from Western markets, supported by a strong gold rally 12. China’s threat of retaliation over EU sanctions 2 and the upcoming China-EU summit 11 add to the risk of further commercial friction.

On the corporate and tech front, Ryanair ’s record profit underscores robust travel demand but also flags potential aircraft delivery risks if U.S. tariffs extend to aviation 19. In digital assets, Ethereum ’s rally 17 and the planned Ether Machine SPAC listing 16 signal growing institutional participation, while OpenAI’s GPU expansion 18 and LSE’s 24-hour trading review 13 reflect the ongoing shift toward AI and continuous market access.