TL;DR

Israel-Iran conflict drives oil up 13%, gold to highs, Bitcoin down; U.S. hikes tariffs; EU tightens Russian energy.

Highlights

• Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” striking Iranian nuclear and military sites, including Natanz; Iran called the attacks a “declaration of war” and is preparing to retaliate 12.
• Iran fired over 100 drones toward Israel in response; interception ongoing. Iran closed its airspace indefinitely 35.
• Brent crude surged up to 13% to $78/bbl, its largest one-day gain since 2022; energy-linked equities rallied, global stocks fell, and haven assets gained 4.
• Israel shut the Leviathan gas field and other offshore platforms due to security threats, raising concerns over regional gas supply and potential knock-on effects for Egypt and Europe 6.
• Gold rose to a one-month high, with Indian futures breaking ₹100,000/10g for the first time, amid heightened geopolitical risk and a softer USD 19.
• Bitcoin dropped below $103,000, triggering over $1 billion in crypto long liquidations as risk aversion intensified 7.
• The U.S. will impose 50% tariffs on imported steel-based home appliances from June 23, prompting Asian manufacturers to review supply chains 8.
• EU, UK, and Canada are moving to cut the Russian oil price cap to $45/bbl without U.S. backing; the EU will ban LNG terminals servicing Russian customers by 2027 and require proof of non-Russian origin 910.
• China’s SAMR delayed approval of the $35B Synopsys -Ansys merger amid U.S.-China tech tensions; U.S. projects Huawei’s AI chip output will stay below 200,000 units in 2025 due to export controls 1112.
• Tencent is considering a $15B acquisition of South Korea’s Nexon , sending Nexon shares up 10% 13.
• Foxconn exported $4.4B of India-made iPhones to the U.S. in Jan–May 2025, already surpassing 2024’s full-year total as Apple shifts supply chains 14.
• The SEC withdrew proposals on crypto custody, DeFi regulation, and ESG disclosures, maintaining the current regulatory framework 18.

Commentary

Escalation between Israel and Iran has triggered a broad risk-off move across global markets. Israel’s direct strikes on Iranian nuclear and military assets 12, Iran’s drone response 3, and the closure of Iranian airspace 5 have sharply increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East. The immediate market impact is most visible in energy: Brent crude’s double-digit rally reflects concerns over potential supply disruptions 4, while Israel’s shutdown of the Leviathan gas field 6 adds further uncertainty to regional gas flows, with possible implications for Egypt and European LNG markets 6.

Safe-haven assets are in demand, with gold reaching new highs 19 and government bonds rallying as investors seek protection from volatility. Conversely, risk assets have come under pressure—Bitcoin ’s sharp decline and mass liquidations highlight the sensitivity of leveraged positions to geopolitical shocks 7. The SEC’s withdrawal of several regulatory proposals 18 may provide some relief for crypto and public companies, but is unlikely to offset the broader risk aversion.

Trade and supply chain themes remain active. The U.S. is expanding tariffs to steel-based appliances 8, increasing pressure on Asian exporters and prompting supply chain reviews. Apple ’s continued pivot to Indian manufacturing, evidenced by Foxconn’s surge in U.S.-bound iPhone exports from India, underscores the ongoing realignment away from China 14. In technology, China’s delay of the Synopsys -Ansys merger 11 and U.S. restrictions on Huawei’s AI chip output 12 signal persistent friction in global semiconductor supply chains.

Energy policy in Europe is also evolving, with the EU, UK, and Canada moving to tighten the Russian oil price cap 9 and phase out Russian LNG contracts 10. These steps, combined with Middle East tensions, add to uncertainty over energy pricing and supply, especially for European importers.

Traders should monitor for further escalation in the Middle East, energy market volatility, and potential spillovers into broader risk assets. Watch for updates on Iranian retaliation, LNG and oil supply disruptions, and ongoing trade and tech policy shifts.