TL;DR

Trump-Iran oil deal sinks crude; Iran-Israel ceasefire lifts equities; Fed holds rates, eyes tariffs.

Highlights

• Trump allows China to resume Iranian oil imports; WTI crude drops 6%, Brent down 4.5%1.
• Iran-Israel ceasefire brokered by Trump; global equities rally, risk appetite improves, travel stocks outperform317.
• Fed Chair Powell signals no rush to cut rates; inflation subdued, but tariff impacts uncertain2.
• U.S. current account deficit hits record $450.2B in Q1; imports surge to 32% of GDP11.
• EU threatens retaliatory tariffs on Boeing and other US goods if Trump imposes new levies4.
• NTSB blames Boeing and FAA for Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 panel blowout; production cap remains5.
• Carnival and CarMax beat earnings and raise 2025 guidance; travel and leisure stocks strong6.
• Amazon to invest $4B expanding same-day delivery to rural US, escalating competition with Walmart 7.
• Mastercard partners with Chainlink for direct onchain crypto purchases; Fed clarifies banks can offer crypto services if risk controls are met89.
• Coinbase to launch perpetual futures for US clients; Senate advances crypto regulatory framework1019.
• Treasury expects Senate vote on Trump tax plan by Friday; SALT deduction compromise near, debt limit update expected20.

Commentary

Markets are closing firmer as geopolitical risk recedes following a Trump-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel317. The announcement, coupled with Trump’s decision to allow China to resume Iranian oil imports, has driven a sharp selloff in crude (WTI -6%, Brent -4.5%)117, pressuring US energy majors and lifting travel and leisure names. Airlines and cruise operators are outperforming as supply concerns ease and risk appetite returns17.

On the macro front, Fed Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, signaling rate cuts are not imminent despite subdued inflation2. Tariff uncertainty and a record US current account deficit—now $450.2B in Q1 with imports at a 135-year high—highlight ongoing imbalances11. The dollar is modestly weaker, while lower oil prices may temper near-term inflation expectations17.

Trade tensions remain in focus as the EU threatens retaliatory tariffs on Boeing and other US goods if new US levies are imposed4. Boeing also faces renewed scrutiny after the NTSB blamed both the company and the FAA for the Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 incident; production caps and further regulatory actions remain overhangs5.

Crypto and fintech are active: Mastercard’s Chainlink partnership enables direct onchain crypto purchases for billions of cardholders8, while the Fed clarifies banks can serve crypto clients if risk controls are met9. Coinbase is preparing to launch perpetual futures in the US10, and the Senate is advancing a framework for digital asset regulation—potentially supportive for sector sentiment19.

Traders should watch for further moves in energy, travel/leisure, and crypto-related stocks, as well as any late-breaking headlines from the NATO summit or Capitol Hill on tax and trade policy. The Senate’s expected Friday vote on Trump’s tax package and debt limit details could drive volatility into quarter-end20.