TL;DR

Oil surges on Trump’s Russia ultimatum; SEC greenlights in-kind crypto ETFs; China resumes rare earth exports.

Highlights

• Oil prices jumped 3.5%+ as Trump issued a 10-day ultimatum to Russia over Ukraine, threatening tariffs and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude; China specifically warned14.
• SEC approved in-kind creation/redemption for all US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, expected to improve liquidity and lower costs; position limits on Bitcoin options raised2.
• China agreed to resume rare earth magnet shipments to the US after trade talks; US and China are discussing a possible tariff pause and a Trump-Xi meeting320.
• Tesla signed a $4.3B deal with LG Energy for US-made batteries, reducing reliance on China and avoiding 145% tariffs on Chinese imports5.
• Mexico raised import duties to 33.5% on small parcels from non-trade partners (notably China), aiming to preempt US tariffs and curb Chinese e-commerce flows9.
• US Treasury warned China of steep tariffs for buying sanctioned Russian oil; $600B EU investment deal tied to tariff flexibility, with further US pressure on China possible48.
• Australia’s Q2 core inflation slowed to 2.7%, pushing bond yields lower and raising RBA rate cut expectations13.
• Eurozone Q2 GDP rose 0.1% as France and Spain outperformed Germany and Italy; ECB rate cut odds remain near 50% for December14.
• Chile’s central bank cut rates to 4.75%, resuming easing as inflation falls and labor market weakens12.
• Palo Alto Networks is in advanced talks to acquire CyberArk for over $20B; CyberArk shares surged, Palo Alto fell6.
• Kraken is seeking $500M funding at a $15B valuation, signaling crypto sector optimism and possible IPO plans17.
• 8.8-magnitude earthquake off Kamchatka triggered Pacific tsunami warnings; limited immediate market impact, but supply chain risks noted16.

Commentary

Energy markets are reacting sharply to renewed geopolitical risk, with oil prices rallying on the back of Trump’s ultimatum to Russia and threats of secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian crude, including China14. This adds near-term upside risk for oil and could pressure energy-importing economies, especially if OPEC+ signals further supply restraint in August. Watch for volatility in oil-linked equities and currencies.

US-China trade dynamics remain fluid. China’s agreement to resume rare earth magnet shipments and ongoing talks about a tariff pause are positive for supply chains320, but tensions persist as the US warns of steep tariffs on Chinese purchases of sanctioned Russian oil4. Mexico’s tariff hike on Chinese e-commerce parcels9 and Tesla ’s battery sourcing shift to the US5 further highlight the trend toward supply chain localization and trade protectionism, likely supporting North American manufacturing and weighing on some Chinese exporters.

Central banks are tilting dovish. Australia’s softer inflation13 and Chile’s rate cut12 reinforce a global easing bias, while the ECB remains cautious as Eurozone growth stays sluggish14. Expect downward pressure on AUD and CLP , and continued focus on ECB guidance for the euro .

In digital assets, the SEC’s approval of in-kind ETF flows for Bitcoin and Ether should deepen liquidity and attract more institutional capital2. Kraken’s fundraising and IPO plans17 further signal sector momentum. Watch for tighter ETF spreads and increased crypto trading volumes.

The Kamchatka earthquake is a reminder of supply chain vulnerability in the Asia-Pacific, but immediate financial market impact appears limited16. Traders should stay alert to headline risk from ongoing US-China negotiations, energy sanctions, and central bank decisions.