TL;DR

Trump doubles steel/aluminum tariffs; oil and metals surge on supply/geopolitics; U.S. manufacturing contracts.

Highlights

• Trump doubles U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% effective June 4; U.S. steel stocks surge; global partners threaten retaliation 1.
• U.S. demands "best offer" on tariffs from all trade partners by June 4; July 8 deadline set for deals or tariffs return 15.
• Trump and Xi to hold call this week on escalating U.S.-China trade and critical minerals tensions 4.
• Oil jumps over 4% (Brent $65.47, WTI $63.67) on Russia-Ukraine escalation, ADNOC/Kazakhstan/Iraq output cuts; gold up 2%+, silver above $34 211.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI falls to 48.5% (May), lowest since November; new orders and exports remain weak, tariffs cited as a drag 14.
• UnitedHealth plunges nearly 50% after weak Q1, 2025 guidance pulled, DOJ Medicare probe; CEO replaced 3.
• Applied Digital and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave sign $7B, 250MW AI lease; APLD +45%, CoreWeave +11% 7.
• Circle upsizes IPO to 32M shares, targets $7.2B valuation; BlackRock eyes 10% stake; Senate advances stablecoin bill 89.
• Disney announces fourth round of layoffs, cutting hundreds at Disney Entertainment as part of cost-cutting 6.
• Musk’s xAI seeks $113B valuation in $300M secondary share sale; $5B debt package in works 10.
• MicroStrategy buys 705 more bitcoin ; Sberbank launches bitcoin-linked bonds in Russia 12.

Commentary

Trade policy and geopolitical risk drove market action into the close. The White House’s move to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting June 4 triggered a sharp rally in U.S. steelmakers, but also drew immediate threats of countermeasures from Canada, the EU, Australia, and China 1. The administration is demanding final tariff offers from all trading partners by Wednesday, with a July 8 deadline for deals—otherwise, suspended tariffs snap back, raising the risk of renewed trade frictions 15. The upcoming Trump-Xi call is a key event, as both sides accuse each other of violating the recent Geneva truce and China restricts critical mineral exports 4.

Energy and metals markets responded to a mix of geopolitical and supply headlines. Oil rallied over 4% despite OPEC+ output increases, as Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields and fresh output cuts from ADNOC, Kazakhstan, and Iraq tightened the supply outlook 218. Gold and silver saw strong safe-haven demand, with gold up over 2% and silver breaking $34, supported by both geopolitical and trade uncertainty 211. Precious metals miners and related ETFs (GDX, GDXJ) hit multi-year highs 11.

Macro data showed ongoing U.S. manufacturing weakness, with the ISM PMI dropping to 48.5%—the third straight month of contraction—driven by soft new orders, weak exports, and higher input costs from tariffs 14. This underscores the drag of ongoing trade disputes on the real economy. In equities, UnitedHealth was a major underperformer after disappointing results, a DOJ probe, and leadership changes 3, while Disney ’s new round of layoffs highlighted persistent cost-cutting in media 6.

AI infrastructure and digital assets remained pockets of strength. Applied Digital and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave surged on a $7B AI data center deal 7, while Musk’s xAI and Neuralink continued to attract large-scale capital 1019. In crypto, Circle’s upsized IPO and BlackRock ’s interest, alongside Senate progress on stablecoin regulation, point to further institutionalization 89; MicroStrategy and Sberbank’s bitcoin moves reinforce ongoing demand for digital assets 1213.

Traders should monitor further tariff headlines, the Trump-Xi call, and commodity price action for late-session volatility, with sector rotation likely as macro and policy risks remain elevated.