Highlights

• Trump reaffirms 145% tariff on Chinese goods, dismisses recession concerns; U.S. public remains wary of economic fallout1.
• Trump administration mulls scrapping tiered AI chip export controls, favoring government-to-government agreements; Nvidia shares edge up2.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slashes Q3 guidance, citing delayed customer decisions and margin pressure; stock plunges 20% after hours3.
• Visa beats Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, announces $30B share buyback; stock gains 1–2% post-close4.
• Snap reports 14% revenue growth and user milestone but withholds Q2 guidance; stock drops 11% after hours Snap Inc. 5.
• Starbucks misses Q2 earnings and revenue forecasts, posts fifth straight quarter of global comp sales decline; CEO touts turnaround plan Starbucks Corp 6.
• Bank of Japan to hold rate at 0.5%, delays hikes to October amid U.S. tariffs and downgraded growth outlook7.
• Elon Musk’s DOGE role reportedly shields companies from $2.37B in liabilities; Trump praises cost-cutting, critics warn of service cuts8.
• Trump launches $1T Golden Dome missile defense shield and announces 21 new F-15EX jets for Michigan's Selfridge base Lockheed Martin Corp. 9, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. 9, Boeing Company 10.
• GM recalls nearly 600,000 vehicles for engine failure; Ford recalls 128,889 for camera issues11.
• Toyota and Waymo partner to bring autonomous tech to Lexus SUVs, citing 81% fewer crashes than human drivers Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares) 13, Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock 13, Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock 13.
• New Jersey court grants Kalshi preliminary injunction, affirming CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts; regulatory battles continue15.

Commentary

Risk sentiment remains fragile as U.S. trade policy takes center stage. President Trump’s unwavering commitment to a 145% tariff on Chinese imports signals a hardening stance on trade, raising the specter of renewed global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures1. While Trump insists China will absorb the tariffs, consumer and business sentiment surveys suggest broad skepticism and recession concerns, which could weigh on equities with high China exposure and global cyclicals1.

Tech sector volatility is front and center. SMCI’s sharp guidance cut and subsequent 20% after-hours selloff highlight the fragility in AI hardware demand, especially as customers delay platform decisions3. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s consideration to overhaul AI chip export controls injects additional uncertainty but provided a modest boost to Nvidia2. Investors should brace for further swings in semiconductor names as policy clarity evolves.

Consumer and fintech names delivered mixed results. Visa’s robust Q2 print and $30B buyback underscore resilience in payments and consumer spending, supporting the broader financials sector4. In contrast, Snap’s strong user growth was overshadowed by the lack of forward guidance, triggering an 11% after-hours drop Snap Inc. 5. Starbucks’ earnings miss and continued same-store sales weakness reinforce challenges in discretionary spending, despite management’s optimism on turnaround efforts Starbucks Corp 6.

On the macro front, the Bank of Japan’s decision to pause rate hikes in response to U.S. tariffs and a downgraded growth outlook signals caution across global central banks7. Expect the yen to remain under pressure, with knock-on effects for carry trades and emerging market currencies. Defense and aerospace may see tailwinds from Trump’s $1 trillion missile shield and fighter jet announcements Lockheed Martin Corp. 9, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. 9, Boeing Company 10, while automakers face headwinds from large-scale recalls11.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor further developments in U.S.-China trade rhetoric, AI export policy, and consumer spending trends. Watch for spillover into global risk assets, particularly in sectors sensitive to tariffs and supply chains. Regulatory headlines—whether from Musk’s government dealings8 or Kalshi’s legal battles15—underscore the importance of policy risk in today’s market landscape. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors digest both macro and micro crosscurrents.