TL;DR

Ukraine peace talks stall; Russian refinery outages lift fuel prices; PBOC strengthens yuan again.

Highlights

• Trump, Zelenskyy, and EU leaders met in Washington to accelerate Ukraine peace talks; no breakthrough yet, but further discussions planned 1.
• Russia warns NATO troop deployment in Ukraine would risk escalation; labels UK suggestions "provocative" 2.
• Drone strikes force three major Russian refineries offline, pushing Russian gasoline prices to record highs and tightening domestic supply 5.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to raise tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil imports; India has not responded 17.
• China lifts rare-earth magnet export curbs on India, easing near-term supply risk for Indian manufacturers 3.
• U.S. extends chip export controls: Nvidia must obtain a license for any new products sold to China 4.
• PBOC sets yuan fix much stronger than market estimates for second day, reinforcing efforts to support the currency 8.
• Shanghai Composite hits highest since 2015 on strong turnover and capital inflows; rare earth stocks rally 13.
• Japan’s 20-year government bond yield rises after a soft auction; BOJ faces calls to hike rates as Asian long yields climb 9.
• Hong Kong dollar strengthens past 7.80 as HIBOR rises, narrowing US rate gap; property sector faces refinancing risk 10.
• SoftBank acquires just under 2% of Intel for $2B, supporting Intel ’s capital needs and AI push 12.
• South Korea orders crypto exchanges to halt lending services pending new regulations 16.

Commentary

Geopolitics remain a key market driver. Ukraine peace talks in Washington brought together U.S., European, and Ukrainian leaders, but produced no concrete progress 1. Russia’s warnings against NATO troop deployments and ongoing hostilities—including deadly Russian airstrikes—underscore persistent risk of escalation 2. Meanwhile, the U.S. is set to raise tariffs on Indian goods in response to India’s Russian oil imports, adding to global trade tensions 17 even as China moves to ease rare-earth supply constraints for India 3.

Commodity and currency markets are reacting to these cross-currents. Drone attacks have shut several major Russian refineries, sending domestic gasoline prices to record highs and highlighting supply vulnerabilities 5. In FX, the PBOC’s stronger-than-expected yuan fixings for a second day signal a clear attempt to counter depreciation pressure 8, while the Shanghai Composite’s multi-year highs and rare earth stock rally reflect improved sentiment and capital inflows 13. The Hong Kong dollar’s move past 7.80, driven by higher HIBOR, narrows the US rate gap but raises refinancing risks for the city’s leveraged property sector 10.

In rates, Japan’s weak 20-year bond auction and rising yields across Asia show shifting expectations for monetary policy 9. BOJ faces renewed calls to hike rates to support the yen, while Asian long yields are moving higher in tandem. On the tech front, the U.S. is tightening chip export controls, requiring Nvidia to obtain licenses for new products sold to China 4. SoftBank’s $2B Intel stake provides capital for Intel ’s manufacturing and AI ambitions, as the global semiconductor landscape continues to evolve 12.

Regulatory scrutiny is also in focus: South Korea’s order to halt crypto lending highlights ongoing efforts to tighten oversight in digital assets 16. Overall, traders should monitor Ukraine diplomacy, Russian energy infrastructure, Asian FX and rates, and regulatory actions in tech and crypto for cross-asset implications.