TL;DR
Silver hits 13-year high; Trump’s Brazil tariffs drive trade tensions; NVIDIA, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF rally.
Highlights
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- Silver surged nearly 3% to $38.38/oz, its highest since 2011; gold also advanced, but mining equities and ETFs were flat 1.
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- U.S. Treasury reported a $27B June surplus, reversing expectations for a deficit, as tariff receipts jumped 301% YoY; net interest payments on federal debt remained high 4.
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- NVIDIA gained 1.3% to a new all-time high, up 74% since April, following CEO-Trump meeting; market cap now nearly double Bitcoin 7.
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- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF became the fastest ETF ever to reach $80B AUM, reflecting strong institutional demand 8.
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- Kraft Heinz shares rose 3% on reports it may spin off its Kraft-branded grocery business, retaining higher-growth condiments and sauces 6.
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- Meta faces potential new EU antitrust charges and daily fines over its ad model; shares fell 1.7% 5.
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- Pentagon ordered a major ramp-up in domestic drone manufacturing, sending Kratos up 10% and lifting AeroVironment 11.
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- JPMorgan will begin charging fintechs hundreds of millions for access to customer data, raising costs for firms like PayPal and Block 9.
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- FDA rejected Capricor ’s Duchenne therapy, sending shares down over 60% 15.
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- Senate panel advanced a $914B defense bill with $500M Ukraine aid, exceeding White House requests and boosting defense sector outlook 14.
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- Canadian job gains beat expectations, reducing odds of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut; CAD held firm 19.
Commentary
Friday’s session saw notable moves across metals, tech, and defense. Silver ’s breakout to its highest level since 2011 extended its outperformance versus gold , but the lack of follow-through in mining equities and ETFs signals investor caution, possibly due to broader risk sentiment or concerns about the sustainability of the rally 1.
Trade tensions remain in focus as Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and threats toward other BRICS members drew condemnation from China and prompted talk of Brazilian retaliation 2. However, Trump’s later openness to negotiations helped stabilize the Brazilian real 3. The U.S. Treasury’s surprise June surplus was driven by a sharp increase in tariff receipts, but economists warn that higher tariffs could add to inflation, complicating the Fed’s rate outlook. Net interest payments on the federal debt remain a structural concern 4.
Equities were driven by sector-specific catalysts. NVIDIA ’s continued rally after the CEO’s meeting with Trump highlights ongoing demand for AI and semiconductor exposure 7. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF milestone underscores robust institutional appetite for crypto 8, even as JPMorgan ’s new data fees threaten to raise costs for fintechs 9. Kraft Heinz ’s potential spinoff and the Pentagon’s drone procurement boost are moving consumer and defense names 611, while Meta ’s regulatory risk and Capricor ’s FDA rejection weighed on those stocks 515.
Fixed income traders should note the stronger-than-expected fiscal data 4, but the inflationary implications of tariffs and defense spending could keep yields elevated 14. In FX, the Brazilian real ’s stabilization 3 and the Canadian dollar ’s resilience after strong jobs data are key watchpoints 19.
Traders should monitor late-session positioning in metals, defense, and AI/crypto names, and remain alert to any further policy headlines on tariffs or inflation.