TL;DR

Trump to impose new tariffs on 200 nations; $1.1T healthcare cuts pass; S&P 500, Nasdaq hit records.

Highlights

• Trump to send formal tariff letters to 170–200 countries on July 4, imposing 20–30% duties; deals reached with China, India, UK, but not EU, Canada, or Japan 1.
• Congress passes Trump’s $1.1T “One Big Beautiful Bill,” slashing Medicaid and healthcare spending; CBO projects 11.8M could lose coverage by 2034 7.
• House passes Trump-backed tax cuts, but all floor votes for week of July 8 canceled, pausing further legislation 814.
• US House sets “Crypto Week” (July 14–18) to vote on three major digital-asset bills, including a permanent ban on a US CBDC 9.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs; US gasoline prices hit four-year summer low 15.
• Trump reports no progress on Ukraine after call with Putin; US continues arming Ukraine but reviews own stockpiles, with some Pentagon shipments paused 23.
• China’s FM Wang Yi tells EU Beijing “cannot afford” Russian defeat in Ukraine, highlighting China’s strategic stance 5.
• Trump says Iran wants direct nuclear talks; no formal outreach confirmed 4.
• Trump to meet Netanyahu July 7, pushing for Gaza cease-fire and civilian protections 10.
• Pentagon deploying 200 Marines to Florida to support ICE in administrative roles 11.
• Kurdish forces intercept explosive drone near Erbil; separate drone blast in Kirkuk amid uptick in Iranian-designed drone strikes in Iraq 6.
• FDA issues Class I recall for 12,000 lbs of Alma Pak blueberries (Listeria risk); Texas reports first West Nile case of 2025 1312.

Commentary

Trade policy is set to dominate the agenda as Trump’s administration moves to formalize new tariffs on up to 200 countries, with major partners like the EU, Canada, and Japan still unresolved 1. This could introduce headline risk for US exporters and multinationals, especially if reciprocal measures are threatened. Equity sectors with global exposure should be monitored for volatility as the July 9 deadline approaches.

On the fiscal front, the passage of the $1.1 trillion budget and tax package—combining deep Medicaid cuts with historic tax reductions—could have mixed implications 78. Near-term, tax relief may support corporate earnings and risk assets, but the projected loss of healthcare coverage for millions and increased deficits could pressure consumer-facing sectors and longer-dated Treasuries. The pause in House floor votes next week delays further legislative momentum 14, but attention will shift to “Crypto Week,” where digital asset regulation and a US CBDC ban could move crypto markets 9.

Geopolitical developments remain fluid. The lack of progress on Ukraine 2, China’s explicit stance against a Russian defeat 5, and US weapons shipment reviews all reinforce ongoing uncertainty for defense and energy sectors 3. Meanwhile, Trump’s push for a Gaza cease-fire and reports of Iranian-designed drone activity in Iraq keep Middle East risk in focus 106, with potential knock-on effects for oil and defense equities.

Markets have so far responded positively, with record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and lower gasoline prices providing a supportive backdrop 15. However, traders should remain alert to potential volatility from trade headlines, fiscal policy shifts, and geopolitical developments as the US heads into the holiday-shortened week.