TL;DR

Intel warns on advanced chips; Bitcoin drops on Galaxy outflows; Volkswagen, Puma cut guidance on U.S. tariffs.

Highlights

• Intel signals possible exit from advanced chipmaking, cutting 22% of workforce and canceling planned facilities; Q3 outlook disappoints, shares fall 4.5% after Q2 results.1
• Nvidia AI chips worth $1B smuggled into China since April, fueling an illicit repair market; U.S. lawmakers seek stricter GPU tracking.4
• Tesla to launch paid robotaxi rides in San Francisco this weekend with safety drivers; lacks full regulatory approval for driverless ops.3
• Bitcoin drops 3% to $115,000 as Galaxy Digital moves over $1.2B BTC to exchanges; Ether down 4%.513 Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF posts record $210M inflow, driving $231M in daily ETH ETF flows.12
• Volkswagen cuts 2025 profit and revenue guidance after €1.3B U.S. tariff hit and weak Q2 earnings; U.S. deliveries down nearly 10%.620
• Puma shares plunge up to 20% after warning of a 2025 loss, citing weak demand, high inventories, and new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.11
• Bank of Japan may signal a more upbeat outlook at next week’s meeting after U.S.-Japan trade accord, opening path for a second rate hike in 2025.2
• ECB’s Kazaks signals no urgency for further rate cuts, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.7
• U.S. consumer sentiment and Trump’s economic approval rise, but new tax and tariff laws remain unpopular.17
• South Korea pushes to finalize a U.S. trade deal before August 1, focusing on tariffs and critical sectors like semiconductors.15

Commentary

Semiconductors remain in focus as Intel ’s restructuring and warning of a potential exit from advanced chipmaking highlight ongoing challenges for U.S. tech manufacturing.1 The cutbacks and weak outlook could weigh on U.S. chip sector sentiment, especially as Nvidia ’s AI chips continue to reach China via illicit channels, underscoring the limits of export controls and the persistent global demand for high-end hardware.4 Congressional efforts to tighten post-sale tracking may increase regulatory scrutiny for U.S. chipmakers.4

In equities, U.S.-listed semiconductor and auto suppliers could see pressure following Intel ’s and Volkswagen ’s guidance cuts.16 Volkswagen ’s results show the impact of U.S. tariffs on global automakers, with North American sales notably weak.6 Puma’s steep profit warning, also tied to U.S. tariffs and sluggish demand, adds to concerns about the outlook for consumer discretionary names exposed to global trade.11

Crypto markets saw heavy flows overnight. Bitcoin ’s 3% drop was triggered by large-scale transfers from Galaxy Digital to exchanges, stoking speculation of active selling, though liquidity has so far absorbed the move.513 In contrast, Ethereum saw record ETF inflows—driven by Fidelity—which may help stabilize ETH despite broader crypto weakness.12 NFT-related activity is also supporting ETH-linked sentiment.19

Macro policy remains a driver. The U.S.-Japan trade accord is clearing the way for the Bank of Japan to consider another rate hike, which could support the yen and impact global rates.2 The ECB is in wait-and-see mode, keeping EUR/USD in a holding pattern.7 U.S. consumer sentiment is improving, but political risks around tariffs and tax policy persist as the election cycle intensifies.17 South Korea’s push to finalize a U.S. trade deal before August 1 could bring further headlines for sectors like semiconductors.15

Traders should watch for continued volatility in semis, autos, and crypto, as well as updates from central banks and trade talks that could shift cross-asset sentiment ahead of the weekend.