VC

May 1, 2025

Published 2 months ago

Highlights

  • U.S. Senate deadlocks on resolution to revoke Trump’s 10% global tariffs, leaving broad import duties in place amid economic contraction concerns1.
  • Dream Games (Turkey) secures $2.5B in funding from CVC and Blackstone at a $5B valuation, marking a major VC gaming exit as early investors fully cash out2.
  • Ripple’s $4B–$5B bid to acquire Circle (USDC issuer) rejected, with Circle pursuing a U.S. IPO and maintaining dominance in the stablecoin market3.
  • Galaxy Digital to list on Nasdaq May 16 (pending May 9 approval), signaling renewed U.S. crypto capital market activity and a focus on digital assets and AI4.
  • Sanofi sells 50% of Opella (Doliprane maker) to CD&R for €10B, with Bpifrance and ex-P&G CEO David Taylor joining; proceeds split between buybacks and AI investment5.
  • Merck KGaA to acquire SpringWorks for $3.9B (26% premium), while Kronos Bio is sold at a steep discount amid shareholder lawsuits, highlighting M&A volatility in biotech6.
  • Morgan Stanley plans to enable crypto trading for 5.2M E*Trade clients as early as 2026, potentially mainstreaming digital asset access for U.S. retail investors7.
  • Apple found in violation of App Store injunction, referred for possible criminal contempt; ruling forces Apple to loosen payment restrictions, boosting third-party app/payment startups8.
  • Huawei set to ship Ascend 910D AI chip, challenging Nvidia amid U.S. export curbs; Nvidia responds with $500B U.S. AI infrastructure investment9.
  • Visa and Mastercard launch pilot programs for AI agent-driven payments, partnering with major AI and fintech players to enable autonomous commerce12.
  • Delaware amends DGCL (SB 21), enhancing protections for interested directors and controlling stockholders, and narrowing shareholder inspection rights14.
  • 21Shares files for first spot Sui ETF with the SEC, as institutional interest in altcoin/blockchain exposure grows15.
  • U.S. House and Senate move to roll back California EV/truck rules and Biden appliance standards, signaling regulatory pushback on climate/clean tech policies11.
  • Google and Apple in talks to integrate Gemini AI into Siri, with a potential mid-2025 deal to be announced at WWDC, aiming to close Apple ’s AI gap13.

Commentary

Today’s news cycle underscores a shifting macro and regulatory environment that will shape both early-stage and growth-stage venture activity. The Senate’s failure to overturn Trump’s sweeping 10% tariffs cements a more protectionist trade regime, likely increasing costs for U.S. startups reliant on global supply chains or hardware imports1. This could compress margins and slow growth for hardware, AI, and climate tech ventures, while also incentivizing domestic manufacturing and supply chain innovation—a potential tailwind for U.S.-focused industrial and logistics startups.

The Dream Games exit at a $5B valuation is a bright spot for VCs, demonstrating that significant liquidity events remain achievable for global consumer tech even as public markets remain selective2. Full exits for early backers like Index Ventures and Balderton signal strong secondary appetite and set a high-water mark for gaming sector valuations. Meanwhile, the contrasting biotech M&A—SpringWorks’ premium buyout versus Kronos Bio’s near-wipeout—highlights ongoing volatility and the importance of differentiated pipelines and regulatory clarity in healthcare investing6.

Crypto and digital assets are seeing renewed institutional momentum: Galaxy Digital’s imminent Nasdaq listing4, Morgan Stanley’s plans to open crypto trading to millions of E*Trade clients7, and the SEC-facing spot Sui ETF filing all point to deepening mainstream adoption15. However, regulatory risk remains acute, as seen in Coinbase’s Supreme Court challenge to IRS data collection and the competitive jockeying between Ripple and Circle310. VCs should expect continued deal flow in crypto infrastructure, compliance, and consumer-facing platforms, but with heightened diligence around regulatory trajectories.

The AI and payments landscape is rapidly evolving. Visa and Mastercard ’s AI agent commerce pilots12, coupled with Google-Apple Gemini AI integration talks13, are accelerating the convergence of fintech and generative AI. This opens new white space for startups building agentic commerce, secure digital identity, and embedded finance solutions. At the same time, Apple ’s legal setbacks on App Store practices may finally unlock distribution for third-party payment and app innovation, a boon for mobile-first fintech and SaaS startups8.

Finally, regulatory developments—from Delaware’s DGCL amendments to U.S. rollbacks of climate rules—highlight a complex legal backdrop. The new DGCL safe harbors may ease exit structuring and reduce litigation risk for Delaware-incorporated startups14, while federal pushback on state-level climate policies could chill investment in certain clean tech verticals but create arbitrage opportunities for nimble founders11.

VC investors should closely monitor: the impact of tariffs on portfolio company cost structures, the pace of AI/crypto adoption in financial services, the evolving regulatory perimeter for digital assets and app distribution, and the shifting M&A landscape in both healthcare and consumer tech. Expect deal terms, valuations, and exit timelines to remain highly sensitive to macro and policy signals in the coming quarters.

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