TL;DR

U.S. expands tariffs; India freezes U.S. arms talks; WTI crude drops; gold hits record.

Highlights

• U.S. likely to extend China tariff truce by 90 days; new tariffs on 60+ countries to lift U.S. tariff revenue to $50B/month 1.
• U.S. doubles tariffs on Indian goods to 50%; India freezes $3.6B U.S. arms talks; Moody’s warns of GDP and export impact 23.
• Washington to amend tariff order and reimburse Japan for stacked levies, easing bilateral trade friction 4.
• WTI crude drops below $64, posting steepest weekly loss since June on tariff-driven demand concerns and OPEC+ supply unwind 9.
• Gold rallies above $3,500/oz to record high on safe-haven demand and U.S. trade policy uncertainty 10.
• U.S. dollar softens as Trump considers Fed Governor Waller for Chair; BoE’s hawkish 25bp cut supports sterling 11.
• Topix tops 3,000 for first time, led by SoftBank/Sony earnings and improved U.S.-Japan trade clarity 134.
• Mainland Chinese investors inject record $3.8B into Hong Kong ETFs, signaling renewed appetite for Chinese assets 14.
• SMIC says U.S. 100% chip tariff has limited operational impact due to strong China demand; shares fall on profit drop 20.
• China orders brokers to halt stablecoin promotion; Hong Kong continues stablecoin licensing push 18.
• SEC and Ripple end five-year XRP lawsuit, removing a key regulatory overhang for crypto markets 16.
• El Salvador plans world’s first Bitcoin bank; Panama explores Bitcoin payments for canal fees 17.

Commentary

Global trade tensions remain front and center. The U.S. is set to extend its tariff truce with China, but is pressing ahead with broad new import levies on over 60 countries, sharply increasing monthly tariff revenue 1. India has responded to the U.S. doubling tariffs by suspending $3.6B in arms talks 3, while Moody’s flags risks to Indian GDP growth and manufacturing exports 2. In contrast, the U.S. and Japan have agreed to amend and reimburse stacked tariffs, reducing bilateral friction and supporting Japanese equities 4.

Commodity markets are reacting to these developments. WTI crude has dropped below $64, the steepest weekly loss since June, as traders price in weaker global demand from trade actions and OPEC+’s earlier-than-expected supply increase 9. Meanwhile, gold has surged to record highs above $3,500/oz, driven by safe-haven flows amid trade and policy uncertainty, and market speculation about possible U.S. tariffs on gold 10.

In currency markets, the dollar is under pressure as Trump considers Fed Governor Waller—a perceived dove—for Fed Chair, while the Bank of England’s hawkish rate cut supports sterling 11. Japanese equities are outperforming, with the Topix breaching 3,000 for the first time, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and clarity on U.S.-Japan trade 134. Mainland Chinese investors are aggressively buying Hong Kong ETFs, signaling renewed risk appetite for Chinese assets despite ongoing regulatory tightening in crypto 1418.

On the digital asset front, the SEC and Ripple have ended their long-running XRP lawsuit, removing a major regulatory overhang for crypto 16. El Salvador is moving ahead with plans for a Bitcoin bank, and Panama is considering accepting Bitcoin for canal fees 17, but China continues to clamp down on stablecoin promotion even as Hong Kong pushes for stablecoin licensing 18.

Traders should closely monitor further U.S. trade moves, commodity price stabilization, and central bank signals. Japan and Hong Kong equities are showing resilience, but headline risk remains elevated across asset classes.