TL;DR

Coinbase joins S&P 500; Fed cut seen in December; Trump tariffs hit Shein, Temu US sales.

Highlights

• Coinbase to join S&P 500 on May 19, replacing Discover; shares jumped ~9% after hours 1.
• Goldman Sachs delays expected Fed rate cut to December 2025, raises US growth forecast to 1% y/y for Q4 3.
• Trump administration maintains 120% tariff on Chinese goods under $800, causing Shein and Temu US sales to drop 23% and 17% 2.
• NRG Energy acquires $12B natural gas portfolio, doubling capacity to meet AI/data center-driven electricity demand 6.
• Amazon partners with FedEx for deliveries after UPS pullback; FedEx stock up 1% 7.
• Fitch upgrades Argentina’s debt to CCC+ after $20B IMF deal and currency reforms; Buenos Aires equities rally 9.
• Petrobras Q1 net profit up 48.6% y/y to R$35.2B; approves R$11.7B dividend, notes pressure from weaker oil prices 10.
• House Republicans propose tax bill exempting tips, overtime, and car loan interest from income tax; raises debt ceiling by $4T 12.
• McDonald’s announces plan to hire 375,000 US workers this summer, its largest hiring initiative in years 11.
• US expands Iran nuclear sanctions, targeting five individuals and two entities amid ongoing indirect talks 4.
• Walgreens expands prescription-filling robots ahead of going private, aiming for cost savings and efficiency 15.
• NYC Mayor Adams to host Crypto Summit, seeks to position NYC as a global crypto hub 14.

Commentary

Coinbase ’s upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 marks a notable milestone for the crypto sector, signaling further institutional acceptance and likely driving passive inflows into the stock 1. This development, alongside New York City’s push to attract crypto firms and ease local regulations, keeps digital assets in focus for US traders and may support related equities and sentiment in the near term 14.

The macro backdrop remains dominated by shifting Fed expectations. Goldman Sachs’ move to delay its forecast for the first rate cut to December reflects firmer US growth and recent easing in financial conditions 3. This adjustment could keep Treasury yields and the dollar elevated, while supporting equity valuations—though rate-sensitive sectors may face renewed headwinds if the policy path remains restrictive.

Trade dynamics are again in the spotlight as the Trump administration’s 120% tariff on low-value Chinese goods hits e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu, with double-digit US sales declines reported 2. This policy may add to US retail inflation and benefit domestic competitors, while also affecting logistics—underscored by Amazon ’s renewed partnership with FedEx after UPS’s service reduction 7.

In sector news, NRG ’s $12B natural gas acquisition highlights the growing impact of AI and data centers on US electricity demand, with energy infrastructure and utilities likely to see continued investor interest 6. Petrobras ’ strong Q1 results and dividend payout provide a bright spot in global energy, though the company cautions on softer oil prices ahead 10. Meanwhile, Walgreens ’ expansion of prescription-filling automation is a tactical move as it prepares to go private, aiming to improve margins and operational efficiency 15.

Argentina’s credit upgrade and IMF deal have buoyed local markets, but the country’s fiscal and external challenges remain 9. On the legislative front, the proposed House tax bill—exempting tips, overtime, and car loan interest from income tax—could support disposable income and consumer spending if enacted 12. Geopolitical risks persist with new US sanctions on Iran, but no immediate impact on energy flows is noted 4.