Highlights

• US-China trade war escalates: US imposes 125%-145% tariffs on Chinese goods; China halts Boeing deliveries and seeks Indian exporters to bypass tariffs1.
• Trump administration to soften auto tariffs, exempting cars from overlapping steel/aluminum duties and easing costs for domestic automakers2.
• PBOC sets yuan at strongest level since early April, signals further monetary easing via potential RRR and rate cuts to support growth3.
• Senate to vote Wednesday on resolution to block Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs; House opposition likely to stall progress4.
• UPS to cut 20,000 jobs and close 73 facilities in 2025 amid Amazon downsizing, targeting $3.5B in cost savings5.
• BP Q1 profit drops 48% to $1.38B, cuts buyback to $750M, faces activist pressure to refocus on oil/gas as sector margins shrink6.
• Pfizer adds $1.7B in cost cuts after obesity drug failure, targets $7.7B in total savings by 2027, beats profit estimates but pauses buybacks7.
• SoFi posts record Q1 earnings, plans to relaunch Bitcoin trading for 10M users following favorable US regulatory shifts8.
• BlackRock buys $970.9M in Bitcoin and $67.5M in Ethereum, marking second-largest ETF inflow since January 202413.
• PayPal beats Q1 EPS estimates, maintains 2025 guidance; Venmo volume up 9.6%, transaction margin rises 7.4%9.
• Amazon to display Trump tariff costs on product listings, increasing consumer transparency on trade policy impacts12.
• HSBC Q1 profit down 32% on $1.6B China stake loss, launches $3B buyback, warns of revenue hit from tariffs and economic uncertainty17.

Commentary

Trade tensions are front and center as the US ramps up tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate by halting Boeing aircraft deliveries and urging state firms to reduce reliance on US pharmaceuticals115. The escalation is already disrupting global supply chains, with foreign manufacturers in China facing double tariffs and exploring relocation or alternative sourcing strategies1. Amazon ’s move to display tariff costs on product pages is likely to amplify consumer awareness and political scrutiny, potentially influencing both inflation expectations and public sentiment ahead of the US election cycle12.

In response to trade headwinds and a weakening domestic economy, the PBOC is strengthening the yuan and signaling imminent monetary easing3. This should provide some relief to Chinese equities and support risk appetite in Asia, but also adds to the volatility in currency markets, especially as the US dollar faces competing narratives of trade protectionism and global growth concerns. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s softening of auto tariffs offers a reprieve to US automakers, but broader tariff regimes remain in place, and legislative opposition in Congress adds uncertainty to the policy outlook24.

Corporate earnings paint a mixed picture. UPS and BP are both cutting costs and jobs in response to sector-specific and macroeconomic pressures—UPS due to Amazon ’s downsizing, BP amid falling margins and activist demands56. Pfizer and PayPal , by contrast, delivered resilient earnings and are focusing on efficiency and strategic pivots, with Pfizer pausing buybacks to preserve flexibility for M&A79. In tech and fintech, SoFi ’s strong results and crypto relaunch plans, combined with BlackRock ’s massive Bitcoin and Ethereum purchases, point to growing institutional and retail interest in digital assets, supported by regulatory tailwinds in the US and potential ETF approval momentum in South Korea81314.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Russia issuing fresh nuclear threats to NATO’s new members, Israel rejecting a Gaza ceasefire proposal, and the E3 warning of UN sanctions on Iran101120. These developments could inject further risk premium into energy and defense sectors, though BP ’s and HSBC ’s results suggest that macro headwinds and China exposure are already weighing on global financials617.

Traders should watch for further volatility in industrials (especially Boeing , UPS ), consumer names exposed to tariffs (Amazon , automakers), and oil majors. Crypto and fintech are likely to see continued flows on regulatory and institutional news. Currency markets may be choppy as the yuan strengthens and central banks signal diverging paths314. Overall, risk sentiment remains fragile, with macro policy and geopolitical headlines likely to drive intraday moves. Stay nimble.