TL;DR

House passes $3.8T Trump bill; Senate eyes 500% Russia tariffs, stablecoin bill; Bitcoin hits $111K.

Highlights

• U.S. House narrowly passed Trump’s $3.8T tax-and-spending bill, advancing permanent 2017 tax cuts, spending cuts, and major immigration changes to the Senate 1.
• Senate to vote on Graham-Blumenthal bill imposing 500% tariffs on Russia trade; strong bipartisan support but economic risks flagged 2.
• GENIUS Act stablecoin bill expected to pass Senate, potentially driving trillions in demand for U.S. Treasuries from stablecoin issuers 4.
• Bitcoin hit a record $111,000 on regulatory optimism and ETF flows; MicroStrategy to raise $2.1B via 10% preferred stock for more Bitcoin purchases 39.
• OPEC+ mulls third straight output hike for July (+411,000 b/d); oil prices fell below $65 (Brent) and $61 (WTI) on U.S. inventory build and talks with Iran 56.
• Norinchukin Bank reported a $12.6B loss on U.S. Treasuries and foreign bonds, plans to diversify away from foreign debt 12.
• Analog Devices beat Q2 estimates, raised Q3 guidance; double-digit growth across all markets lifted shares 13.
• BYD surpassed Tesla in April European BEV sales; BYD up 169% y/y, Tesla down 49% 11.
• EU Parliament approved up to 100% tariffs on Russian/Belarusian fertilizers and 50% on farm goods, effective July 1 10.
• Sui’s Cetus DEX exploited for $11M, Sui-based tokens plunged 75%+, ecosystem confidence hit 14.
• OpenAI acquired Jony Ive’s io for $6.5B, targeting AI consumer devices by 2026 7.
• Trump considering privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, raising stakes for U.S. housing and MBS markets 8.

Commentary

U.S. fiscal and regulatory policy is in focus. The House’s narrow approval of Trump’s $3.8T tax-and-spending bill signals potential for significant changes to tax rates, government spending, and immigration policy, but the bill faces a tougher path in the Senate 1. Meanwhile, the Senate’s planned vote on 500% tariffs targeting Russian trade, especially energy and uranium, could have broad implications for commodity markets and global supply chains if enacted 2. The EU’s move to sharply increase tariffs on Russian fertilizers and farm goods adds to the risk of higher input costs and food inflation, with global commodity markets likely to respond 10.

Crypto markets remain active. Bitcoin ’s surge past $111,000 is fueled by optimism over U.S. regulatory clarity and strong ETF inflows 3. The expected passage of the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill could rapidly increase Treasury demand, as stablecoin issuers would be required to hold reserves in U.S. dollars or Treasuries 4. MicroStrategy ’s new $2.1B preferred stock offering to buy more Bitcoin demonstrates ongoing institutional demand 9, but the $11M exploit at Sui’s Cetus DEX highlights persistent vulnerabilities in DeFi 14.

In commodities, oil prices are under pressure despite OPEC+ considering a third consecutive output hike, as U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose and renewed U.S.-Iran nuclear talks weigh on sentiment 56. Norinchukin Bank’s record loss on U.S. Treasuries underscores the risks foreign investors face in the U.S. bond market, though the bank expects to return to profit by shifting away from foreign debt 12.

Equity markets are digesting mixed signals. Analog Devices ’ strong results and guidance point to continued demand in semiconductors and industrials 13. BYD overtaking Tesla in European BEV sales signals intensifying competition in the global EV market 11. OpenAI ’s acquisition of Jony Ive’s io signals a push into AI hardware, which could impact tech sector sentiment 7. Trump’s consideration of privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could have implications for U.S. housing finance and MBS markets 8.

Traders should watch for Senate action on fiscal and Russia trade bills, monitor crypto flows and stablecoin legislation, and track commodity price moves as OPEC+ and geopolitical headlines develop.