TL;DR

U.S.-China 90-day tariff pause lifts equities and oil, gold drops; Fed cut bets trimmed.

Highlights

• U.S. and China agree to a 90-day suspension of most tariffs starting May 14; U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods drop from 145% to 30%, China cuts duties on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%1.
• U.S. equity futures surge: Nasdaq +4%, S&P 500 +3%, Russell 2000 +5%, Dow implied +1,026 points; Hang Seng +3%1.
• Oil rises 4% to $63.54 on improved U.S.-China trade outlook; first weekly gain since mid-April3.
• Gold falls 3.2% to $3,220/oz as safe-haven demand eases; gold ETFs (GLD , PHYS ) drop19.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterates strategic decoupling from China in steel, semiconductors, medicines despite tariff pause6.
• President Trump to sign executive order capping U.S. drug prices at global lows; Asian and Indian pharma stocks fall2.
• Tesla breaks above 200-day moving average, up 5% pre-market to $32510.
• Apple considers iPhone 17 price hikes, expands India production to offset China tariff exposure7.
• Goldman Sachs increases BlackRock Bitcoin Trust stake to $1.4B; MicroStrategy adds 13,390 BTC ($1.34B); Bitcoin above $104,00089.
• ECB and Fed rate cut expectations trimmed; U.S. 10-year yield at 4.45%, Japan 40-year at 3.39%1112.
• Germany warns Russia to accept Ukraine ceasefire or face new EU sanctions; EU allocates €1.9B from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine defense417.
• Meta explores stablecoin integration; Bailey’s Nakamoto merges with KindlyMD to launch public Bitcoin treasury, KDLY up 450% pre-market1420.

Commentary

The 90-day U.S.-China tariff suspension has catalyzed a strong risk-on move across U.S. equity futures, with tech and small caps leading gains. The sharp tariff reductions—though temporary—have eased immediate concerns over trade escalation, driving a rally in global equities and a notable rebound in oil prices as traders anticipate improved demand from the world’s two largest economies13. Conversely, gold and related ETFs (GLD , PHYS ) are under pressure as investors unwind safe-haven positions19.

Despite the tariff truce, U.S. officials remain committed to strategic decoupling from China in key sectors, including steel, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals6. This signals that supply chain realignment and sector-specific tariffs will persist, keeping pressure on companies with significant China exposure. Apple ’s ongoing shift toward India for manufacturing and potential iPhone price hikes reflect how U.S. firms are adjusting to the evolving trade landscape7.

Fixed income markets are responding to the risk-on sentiment with higher yields: the U.S. 10-year Treasury is at 4.45%, and Japan’s 40-year yield has hit a two-decade high12. Meanwhile, expectations for rate cuts from the Fed and ECB have been scaled back, with less than 60bps of Fed easing now priced for 202511. This environment may limit further upside in gold and other non-yielding assets.

In crypto, institutional adoption continues to accelerate. Goldman Sachs increases its BlackRock Bitcoin Trust stake to $1.4B, MicroStrategy adds 13,390 Bitcoin , and new vehicles like Nakamoto (KDLY ) are drawing retail and institutional attention8920. Bitcoin remains above $104,000, and volatility is elevated, driven by large leveraged positions and record inflows into crypto ETFs16.

Geopolitical developments—such as Germany’s Ukraine ceasefire ultimatum and new EU funding for Ukraine—remain on the radar but have yet to materially impact risk sentiment417. Traders should monitor for further headlines on U.S.-China trade negotiations, central bank policy signals, and any escalation in geopolitical risks that could reverse the current risk appetite.