TL;DR

Tesla drops on Trump subsidy threat; Senate votes on $3.3T tax bill; U.S. Bitcoin ETFs see $5B inflows.

Highlights

• Tesla drops 5% pre-market after Trump threatens to cut subsidies and federal contracts to Musk-led firms amid public feud 1.
• Senate set to vote today on Trump’s $3.3T “Big Beautiful” tax bill; AI regulation moratorium removed after bipartisan pushback 46.
• U.S. administration shifts to narrow trade deals ahead of July 9, with new tariffs on Japan and others possible if talks stall 23.
• Gold futures up 26% YTD, best first half since 1979, as Fed cut speculation and dollar weakness persist 8.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $5B in 15-day inflows; Connecticut bans state agencies from holding crypto 717.
• Amazon deploys its one-millionth warehouse robot, reaching near parity with human workforce in fulfillment centers 18.
• Visa suspends international transactions for Mexico’s CI Banco cards amid U.S. Treasury money-laundering probe 9.
• Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russia, hitting defense plant; Russia claims full control of Luhansk region 1213.
• Israel escalates Gaza strikes ahead of U.S.-led ceasefire talks; G7 presses Iran to resume nuclear negotiations 1420.
• ECB’s De Guindos signals euro above $1.20 would complicate policy; euro trades at $1.17 15.
• DOJ charges North Korean IT workers and Asian accomplices for $1.1M crypto theft from U.S. startup 16.
• California enacts CEQA rollback tied to $321B budget, streamlining approvals for housing, infrastructure, and semiconductor projects 10.

Commentary

Markets open to heightened policy and geopolitical risk. Tesla ’s sharp pre-market drop highlights the sensitivity of firms with significant federal exposure to political developments, as Trump’s threat to cut subsidies and contracts introduces new uncertainty for the EV and space sectors 1. Meanwhile, the Senate is expected to vote on the $3.3T “Big Beautiful” tax bill, with the removal of the AI regulation moratorium signaling a more fragmented regulatory landscape for tech and AI firms at the state level 46.

Trade remains a key risk: the U.S. is prioritizing quick, targeted agreements ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, but the threat of higher tariffs on Japan and other partners is already weighing on sentiment, particularly in autos and manufacturing 23. The euro’s move toward $1.20 is being watched closely after the ECB’s warning, while the dollar remains soft on Fed cut expectations and fiscal concerns 15.

Gold ’s strong first-half performance reflects ongoing demand for hedges amid policy and geopolitical uncertainty, with prices consolidating on Fed cut speculation 8. Crypto remains resilient—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract strong inflows, but Connecticut’s government-level ban and DOJ crypto crime charges highlight ongoing regulatory and security risks 71716. Amazon ’s automation milestone and California’s CEQA rollback point to ongoing structural shifts in U.S. labor and infrastructure development 1810.

Geopolitics remain in focus with Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia, Russia’s claim over Luhansk, and Israel’s intensified Gaza campaign ahead of U.S.-led ceasefire talks 121314. Visa ’s move against CI Banco underscores increased scrutiny on cross-border financial flows 9. Traders should watch for headline-driven volatility, especially around U.S. fiscal and trade policy, and monitor sector rotation in response to regulatory and geopolitical developments.