TL;DR

OpenAI’s GPT-5 nears launch, US–EU reach 15% tariff deal, AI policy shifts under Trump.

Highlights

• OpenAI’s unreleased GPT-5 reportedly surpasses Claude and GPT-4.5 in real-world coding, with launch expected as soon as August 1.
• Tencent open-sources Hunyuan3D World Model 1.0, enabling text/image-to-3D environment generation for gaming, VR, and simulation 2.
• Sam Altman (OpenAI) becomes President Trump’s lead AI adviser, replacing Elon Musk and likely influencing US AI policy 5.
• Trump signs executive order mandating “neutral” AI for federal agencies, requiring vendors to comply or risk losing government contracts; compliance guidelines due in 120 days 4.
• OpenAI’s Altman warns ChatGPT conversations lack legal confidentiality, highlighting regulatory gaps as AI chatbots proliferate in sensitive domains 3.
• Google’s AI Overviews cut external click-through rates, but AI chatbot referrals (mainly from ChatGPT) to major sites surged 357% YoY; news outlets see 770% rise 6.
• Tesla to launch a supervised robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area, pending further regulatory approvals for broader rollout 8.
• US and EU agree to a 15% US tariff on most European imports, averting a trade war and prompting $750B in EU energy purchases and $600B in US investments 11.
• US and China expected to extend their tariff truce by 90 days, pausing new levies as negotiations continue 9.
• Goldman Sachs flags record speculative trading in US equities, with option activity and IPO pops at cycle highs 13.
• Ethereum tops $3,800 on $8.2B in three-month inflows, led by institutional demand and ETF interest 14.
• UK enforces strict online age verification, causing a 1,400% surge in VPN sign-ups; EU considering similar rules 7.

Commentary

AI remains the central theme, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 reportedly delivering a substantial leap in coding automation and efficiency, potentially accelerating adoption among software startups and enterprise clients 1. Tencent’s open-sourced 3D world generation model could lower technical barriers for new entrants in gaming, VR, and simulation, expanding the opportunity set for early-stage teams in these sectors 2. At the policy level, Sam Altman’s new advisory role to President Trump—alongside the administration’s executive order on “neutral” AI—signals a more direct link between leading AI vendors and US government procurement standards, which could influence funding flows and compliance requirements for startups targeting federal contracts 45.

The regulatory environment is in flux. The mandate for “neutral” AI in federal agencies introduces new technical and legal hurdles for vendors 4, while Altman’s public warning on the lack of confidentiality in AI chatbots underscores the need for privacy and compliance solutions—an area where early-stage startups may find demand from both enterprise and regulated sectors 3.

Shifts in digital distribution are notable. Google ’s AI Overviews are reducing direct publisher traffic, but AI chatbots—especially ChatGPT—are now a rapidly growing source of referrals, particularly for news and content sites 6. Startups focused on content aggregation, SEO, or new user acquisition models should closely track these evolving channels, as traditional traffic sources fragment.

On the macro front, the US–EU trade deal and a likely US–China tariff truce provide near-term clarity for cross-border tech and manufacturing investments 119. However, ongoing tariff threats and regulatory uncertainty remain for other regions. Public markets are showing signs of speculative excess, with implications for late-stage valuations and IPO appetite; VCs should be mindful of potential volatility spilling into private markets 13.