TL;DR

US-EU tariffs escalate; Russia ends missile moratorium; Aramco profit drops; SEC/CFTC boost crypto.

Highlights

• Trump threatens substantial new tariffs on Indian exports over India's Russian oil purchases; India vows to defend its interests 1.
• EU suspends €93B in retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. for six months; U.S. confirms 15% tariffs on EU pharmaceuticals, cars, cheese; UK cheese faces 24.9% tariff 212.
• Russia ends its moratorium on short- and intermediate-range missile deployments, citing U.S. and allied military build-up; missile test activity expected 3.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu considers full Gaza takeover after ceasefire talks collapse; humanitarian crisis deepens 4.
• Brazil’s Supreme Court puts ex-president Bolsonaro under house arrest; Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports amid diplomatic tensions 5.
• U.S. explores geo-tracking in Nvidia AI chips to block exports to China; TSMC fires staff and Taiwan arrests ex-employees over suspected 2nm trade-secret leak 67.
• Saudi Aramco Q2 profit falls 22% y/y, missing estimates; dividend exceeds free cash flow; oil demand outlook unchanged 8.
• U.S. copper prices fall as tariffs ease on refined copper; global copper prices rise after fatal Chile mine accident halts major Codelco output 10.
• SEC allows some dollar stablecoins to be treated as cash equivalents on corporate balance sheets 11.
• CFTC permits spot Bitcoin trading on futures exchanges; Trump readies order to fine banks debanking crypto firms 19.
• Indonesia Q2 GDP grows 5.1% y/y, beating forecasts; Philippine inflation drops to 0.9%, raising prospects for BSP rate cuts 1415.
• Hong Kong records heaviest August rainfall since 1884, disrupting transport and services 16.

Commentary

Trade policy remains a key driver of market sentiment. The U.S. is escalating tariff threats against India 1 and Brazil 5 while finalizing a new 15% tariff regime on a wide range of EU goods, with the UK facing even higher cheese tariffs 12. The EU’s six-month suspension of planned €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs offers only temporary relief 2, as sector-specific disputes and exemptions remain unresolved. These moves inject ongoing uncertainty into global supply chains, especially for exporters in Europe, India, and Brazil, and could impact related equities and FX.

Geopolitical risk is elevated. Russia’s termination of its missile moratorium, citing U.S. and allied deployments, increases the risk of renewed arms competition and could influence European defense and energy markets 3. In the Middle East, Israel’s consideration of a full Gaza takeover following collapsed ceasefire talks raises the risk of further regional instability, with potential implications for energy prices and emerging market sentiment 4.

In commodities, Saudi Aramco ’s Q2 results missed expectations, with profits down 22% and dividends outpacing free cash flow, though management maintains a steady demand outlook 8. Copper markets are adjusting: U.S. prices have eased after tariff relief, but global prices are supported by supply disruptions at Chile’s El Teniente mine, which accounts for a quarter of Codelco’s output 10.

In technology and digital assets, U.S. authorities are tightening semiconductor export controls, targeting Nvidia AI chips with geo-tracking to prevent smuggling to China 6. TSMC ’s internal security breach and the arrest of ex-employees for suspected 2nm trade-secret leaks underscore ongoing IP risks in the chip sector 7. Regulatory developments are supportive for crypto: the SEC’s stablecoin guidance 11 and the CFTC’s approval of spot Bitcoin trading on futures exchanges 19 could facilitate greater institutional participation, while Trump’s proposed penalties for banks debanking crypto firms may further boost sector sentiment 19.

Emerging markets show resilience: Indonesia’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, lifting local equities 14, while the Philippines’ sharp drop in inflation increases the likelihood of rate cuts 15. However, traders should monitor weather-related disruptions in Asia, as Hong Kong’s record rainfall highlights climate-related risks to infrastructure and commerce 16.