TL;DR

Kalshi raises $185M at $2B; Xero acquires Melio for $2.5B; Republic launches SpaceX tokens for retail.

Highlights

• Kalshi, a federally regulated U.S. prediction market, raised $185M led by Paradigm at a $2B valuation; Sequoia, Multicoin, and others participated 1.
• Xero to acquire New York-based Melio Payments for $2.5B in cash and stock, targeting U.S. fintech growth and aiming to double revenue by 2028 2.
• Rubrik (public, Microsoft-backed) acquires AI startup Predibase for $100M–$500M to expand agentic AI offerings; Predibase will operate independently 3.
• Republic to launch rSpaceX tokens on Solana, offering retail investors economic exposure to SpaceX and other late-stage private tech firms 5.
• U.S. FHFA directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to propose including crypto assets in mortgage underwriting, potentially broadening access to home financing 8.
• Guotai Junan International becomes first Chinese-backed broker in Hong Kong approved for direct crypto trading; shares surge 100%+ 7.
• Google debuts open-source Gemini CLI, offering 1,000 free daily requests to developers and competing with OpenAI and Anthropic 9.
• Anthropic wins partial summary judgment on AI book training as “fair use,” but piracy claims over 7M titles proceed to trial 6.
• Meta rolls out AI-powered message summaries for WhatsApp in the U.S., with privacy-focused processing and more features planned 13.
• Crypto funds log a 10th week of inflows ($1.24B), with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs gaining $589M in a single day 14.
• Worldline shares drop 25% after media alleges fraud cover-up involving high-risk merchants; compliance risk flagged 10.
• Apple joins China’s subsidy program to address declining sales, appeals U.S. App Store commission ban, and warns on EU Digital Markets Act 11.

Commentary

Deal activity remains strong in fintech and AI, with Kalshi’s $185M Series C at a $2B valuation highlighting renewed interest in regulated prediction markets 1. The round, led by Paradigm and joined by major VCs, comes as regulatory clarity appears to be driving institutional participation. Xero’s $2.5B acquisition of Melio Payments signals continued cross-border appetite for U.S. fintech assets, with strategic buyers targeting revenue growth through U.S. expansion 2. Rubrik’s acquisition of Predibase for a reported $100M–$500M underscores sustained demand for AI infrastructure, specifically tools that enable enterprise-scale deployment of machine learning 3.

Tokenization and digital asset infrastructure are advancing on multiple fronts. Republic’s rSpaceX tokens offer retail investors exposure to late-stage private tech companies, potentially increasing secondary liquidity and pressuring regulators to clarify tokenized asset rules 5. The FHFA’s move to consider crypto assets in mortgage underwriting could open new markets for fintechs serving crypto-native consumers 8, while Guotai Junan International’s crypto trading approval in Hong Kong signals further institutionalization of digital assets in Asia 7.

On the AI front, Google ’s free, open-source Gemini CLI targets developer adoption and intensifies competition with OpenAI and Anthropic 9. Anthropic’s partial legal win on fair use for AI training data reduces some copyright risk for startups, though exposure remains for use of pirated content 6. Meta ’s WhatsApp AI features show continued platform integration of generative AI, with privacy as a selling point 13.

Crypto markets are seeing persistent institutional inflows, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs posting record demand 14. However, compliance failures remain a material risk, as highlighted by Worldline’s share drop after fraud allegations 10. Apple ’s moves in China and ongoing legal battles in the U.S. and EU reflect the operational and regulatory headwinds facing global tech incumbents 11.