Highlights

• OPEC+ will boost oil output by 411,000 bpd in June, the second consecutive monthly hike, despite oil prices at four-year lows 1.
• Yemen bans U.S. crude exports and restricts maritime transit from May 17, escalating Red Sea tensions; Houthi missile hits Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, disrupting flights 103.
• Israel to mobilize up to 60,000 reservists for an expanded Gaza offensive; regional escalation risks rise 4.
• U.S. extends USS Truman carrier deployment in the Middle East, keeping two carrier groups on station to counter Houthi threats 20.
• Trump announces immediate secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, intensifying pressure on global crude flows 9.
• Shell is considering a takeover of BP as BP shares slide; Shell also announces a $3.5B buyback 6.
• China removes tariffs on $40B of U.S. goods and considers fentanyl export curbs to revive trade talks 2; Apple shifts iPhone production to India/Vietnam to avoid $900M in tariffs 8.
• Nvidia redesigns AI chips for China to comply with U.S. export rules 7; U.S. lawmakers urge SEC to delist 25 Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges over national security 18.
• U.S. and Ukraine sign rare earths/minerals deal, creating a joint fund with 50% royalties; new U.S. sanctions package targeting Gazprom and Russian banks awaits Trump’s decision 1211.
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervenes for the first time since 2020 to defend the HKD peg, buying $6.5B in USD 5.
• EU to ban anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coins from July 2027; Spain to require crypto tax reporting from 2026 17.
• U.S. approves $3.5B missile sale to Saudi Arabia ahead of Trump’s Gulf visit; U.S. commander warns of China’s Taiwan blockade risk, plans new missile deployments in Indo-Pacific 1315.

Commentary

Energy markets face a volatile week ahead as OPEC+’s decision to increase output—despite multi-year low prices—collides with new geopolitical supply risks 1. Yemen’s ban on U.S. crude exports and maritime transit 10, coupled with the Houthi missile strike on Israel’s main airport 3, injects fresh uncertainty into Red Sea shipping and global oil flows. Trump’s immediate secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers further threaten to tighten supply 9, even as OPEC+ tries to unwind cuts 1. Expect crude volatility to remain elevated, with downside capped by the risk of further regional escalation.

Equity markets will digest a flurry of cross-border corporate and regulatory developments. Shell ’s possible BP takeover and ongoing sector buybacks signal M&A and capital return themes in energy, while activist pressure and asset sales at BP highlight industry restructuring 6. In tech, Nvidia ’s rapid chip redesign for China 7 and Apple ’s supply chain pivot to India and Vietnam 8 underscore the impact of U.S.-China trade and tech tensions. However, U.S. lawmakers’ push to delist major Chinese firms from U.S. exchanges could weigh on ADRs and broader sentiment toward China-exposed equities 18.

In fixed income and FX, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s rare intervention to defend the HKD peg is a reminder of latent currency risks in Asia as capital flows shift 5. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal 12 and pending sanctions on Russia’s energy and banking sectors 11 could impact European credit spreads and the euro, especially if the Kremlin retaliates or peace talks stall. U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia 13 and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific (amid rising China-Taiwan tensions) reinforce a hawkish global security backdrop 15.

Crypto markets face a long-term regulatory overhang after the EU’s definitive ban on privacy coins and anonymous accounts, with Spain moving to tighten tax compliance 17. While the rules don’t take effect until 2027, the direction of travel is clear and could pressure privacy-focused tokens in the near term.

Traders should monitor crude and shipping rates for signs of further Mideast escalation, watch for U.S. sanctions headlines (especially on Russia and Iran), and track Chinese ADRs and Asian FX for spillover from trade and regulatory moves. The week ahead is likely to be risk-on for volatility, with safe-haven flows possible if geopolitical risks intensify.