Highlights

• Tesla Q1 net income plunged 71% amid a 20% drop in auto revenue and a 45% sales slump in Europe; Musk to reduce government role and refocus on Tesla, boosting shares 8% after hours.1
• U.S. equities surged (S&P 500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +2.5%) as Trump signaled lower China tariffs and support for Fed Chair Powell; global markets also rallied.2
• Beijing refuted Trump’s claim of ongoing trade talks, insisting no negotiations will occur without U.S. tariff rollbacks, highlighting persistent U.S.-China trade tensions.4
• OPEC+ to discuss a potential June output hike at May 5 meeting as oil prices hit four-year lows; U.S. and Brent futures fell $2 on the news.3
• U.S. airlines (Southwest, American, Alaska) withdrew 2025 forecasts and reported Q1 losses, citing weak demand, rising costs, and tariff impacts; capacity cuts and layoffs announced.12
• Boeing faces Chinese delivery refusals and returns of 737 MAX jets due to escalating U.S.-China tariffs; plans to redirect aircraft to other markets.6
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries dropped to 1990s lows; bill and note auctions saw mixed demand, with some countries reportedly shifting from Treasuries to Bitcoin.7
• Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast further U.S. dollar weakness, projecting EUR/USD could reach 1.30 amid trade and capital flow shifts.9
• Chipotle missed revenue estimates and saw its first same-store sales decline since 2020; shares fell 5% after hours.11
• ServiceNow beat earnings expectations with 18.5% revenue growth; shares jumped 11% on strong AI and federal business performance.10
• Bitcoin hit $93,000 in April, driven by institutional and sovereign wealth fund buying as retail exited ETFs; Riot Platforms secured a $100M bitcoin-backed credit facility.1819
• 12 U.S. states sued the Trump administration to halt new tariffs, arguing executive overreach; case could clarify limits of presidential trade powers.20

Commentary

U.S. markets are opening against a backdrop of renewed risk appetite, with equities rebounding sharply on hopes for tariff relief and continued Fed independence. President Trump’s softer rhetoric on China tariffs and explicit backing of Jerome Powell have fueled a relief rally, especially in tech and growth stocks.2 However, Beijing’s outright denial of ongoing trade talks underscores that structural tensions remain unresolved, tempering optimism for a near-term breakthrough.4

Corporate earnings send a mixed signal: Tesla’s dramatic profit drop and European sales collapse highlight the impact of political risk and global competition in the EV sector, though Musk’s renewed operational focus offered a short-term boost.1 ServiceNow’s robust results and guidance stand out in tech,10 while Chipotle’s first same-store sales decline since the pandemic and airline sector losses point to consumer fatigue and macro headwinds.1112 The airline industry’s withdrawal of guidance and cost-cutting moves, compounded by tariff-related uncertainty, signal persistent demand fragility and margin pressure.12

In fixed income, foreign participation in U.S. Treasuries continues to erode, with holdings at multi-decade lows and some evidence of capital rotation into alternative assets like Bitcoin.7 Treasury auctions saw solid demand at the long end but weaker indirect interest in shorter maturities.7 The dollar’s recent slide is expected to continue, per Goldman and Deutsche, as current account deficits and shifting global capital flows weigh on the greenback; a move toward EUR/USD 1.30 would have broad asset allocation implications.9

Commodities are under pressure, with oil prices sliding to four-year lows amid OPEC+ output discord and Kazakh overproduction.3 The risk of further price weakness looms if production hikes are confirmed, which could weigh on energy equities and emerging market fiscal balances.3 Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s institutional-driven rally—contrasting with retail ETF outflows—signals growing acceptance of crypto as a macro hedge, especially as some sovereigns reportedly rotate out of Treasuries.187 Riot Platforms' $100M bitcoin-backed credit facility further underscores the growing integration of crypto in financial markets.19

Traders should watch for follow-through in the equity rally, especially in tech and AI leaders,10 but remain alert to headline risk from trade negotiations and legal challenges to tariffs.420 The dollar’s trajectory, Treasury auction results, and oil market developments will be key for cross-asset positioning.793 The divergence between institutional and retail flows in crypto and the evolving regulatory landscape also warrant close attention as non-traditional assets gain traction in global portfolios.18