TL;DR

US payrolls fell; Microsoft, Tesla cut jobs; Bitcoin, Robinhood rally; Trump sets 20% Vietnam tariff.

Highlights

• ADP reported US private payrolls fell by 33,000 in June, first decline since March 2023; services sector led losses 1.
• US employers announced 744,000 job cuts in H1 2025, most since 2020; tech and retail layoffs remain elevated 17.
• Microsoft to cut 9,000 jobs, mainly in Xbox/gaming, citing cost control after heavy AI investment 3.
• Tesla Q2 deliveries fell 13% YoY but beat worst-case estimates; shares rebounded, production and energy storage rose 2.
• US crude inventories rose 3.8M barrels last week on record imports, gasoline stocks also up; WTI retreated from highs 6.
• Trump announced a Vietnam trade deal with a 20% tariff, averting a threatened 46% blanket rate; mid-sized US firms face $82B in annual tariff costs 410.
• Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites; US lawmakers propose authorizing B-2 bomber transfers to Israel if Iran resumes nuclear work 1416.
• White House paused key weapons shipments to Ukraine due to low US stockpiles, prompting concern from Kyiv and European allies 5.
• Bitcoin topped $109,000; BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF surpassed its S&P 500 tracker in fee revenue; Robinhood hit record above $100 on crypto momentum 121113.
• SEC Chair Atkins signaled possible easing of SPAC and crypto rules; Ripple applied for a US national bank charter for its stablecoin 78.
• US M2 money supply hit a record $21.9T in May, raising inflation and Fed policy questions 18.
• Paramount settled with Trump for $16M, clearing a hurdle for its $8.4B Skydance merger; regulatory scrutiny continues 9.

Commentary

US labor market data signaled further cooling, with ADP’s surprise private payrolls decline 1 and the highest first-half layoff count since 2020 17. Services and tech remain under pressure, as highlighted by Microsoft’s 9,000 job cuts 3, while the upcoming non-farm payrolls will be closely watched for confirmation. Equities were initially soft on the labor data but have stabilized as traders weigh the likelihood of Fed rate cuts against the risk of a deeper slowdown 1. Treasury yields were steady, and gold saw modest support 1.

Corporate headlines were mixed. Tesla’s Q2 deliveries fell but beat the most bearish expectations, and production outperformed, driving a rebound in its shares 2. Robinhood’s rally and strong crypto inflows, alongside Bitcoin’s surge above $109,000, reflect continued risk appetite in digital assets 1213, supported by record M2 money supply growth 18 and regulatory signals from the SEC 7. However, stretched valuations and volatility remain concerns 1213.

Geopolitical tensions are elevated. Iran’s suspension of IAEA cooperation after US-Israeli strikes 14 and the US legislative push to authorize B-2 bomber transfers to Israel 16 increase the risk of further escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the White House pause on Ukraine weapons shipments adds uncertainty for defense and European security 5. Oil prices retreated after a surprise US crude inventory build, despite strong refinery demand 6.

On trade, Trump’s Vietnam deal averts the harshest tariffs but maintains significant cost pressure on US importers, especially mid-sized firms 410. Regulatory and M&A headlines—such as Paramount’s settlement with Trump to clear a path for the Skydance merger—remain in focus for sector-specific names 9.

Traders should monitor labor data, Middle East developments, crypto flows, and tariff headlines for late-session moves and post-holiday positioning.