TL;DR

Oil drops on Iran deal hopes; Walmart beats but warns on tariffs; Coinbase hit by costly data breach.

Highlights

• Oil prices fall nearly 4% as Trump signals the U.S. is close to a nuclear deal with Iran, raising expectations for lifted sanctions and increased Iranian crude exports16.
• Trump administration to cut U.S. bank capital requirements this summer, aiming to boost bank lending and demand for Treasuries315.
• Walmart beats Q1 EPS estimates (61¢ vs. 58¢), sees strong U.S. comp sales, but warns tariff hikes may force price increases; shares up ~3% pre-market5.
• Coinbase declines to pay $20M ransom after a data breach affecting <1% of users; breach could cost up to $400M, shares down ~3.3% pre-market2.
• China’s new yuan loans and aggregate financing miss estimates amid trade tensions, but China-to-U.S. container bookings surge 277% after a temporary tariff pause910.
• Mastercard, in partnership with MoonPay, to enable Bitcoin and stablecoin payments at 150 million merchants worldwide8.
• Tether mints $1B USDT, raising circulating supply above $151B on the TRON network7.
• Jim Chanos announces arbitrage play: long Bitcoin , short MicroStrategy , citing excessive premium on MSTR shares11.
• Starbucks explores selling a stake in its China business, valued at several billion dollars, amid rising local competition12.
• EU finds TikTok in breach of the Digital Services Act, faces up to 6% of global revenue in fines13.
• Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine begin in Istanbul without heads of state; China signals deeper military ties with Russia after Xi’s Moscow visit420.
• Tencent ramps up AI investment with $12.5B commitment, hires WizardLM team, and launches new models leveraging WeChat ’s user base17.

Commentary

Energy markets are in focus as oil prices drop sharply on signals that the U.S. may soon reach a nuclear deal with Iran16. The prospect of lifted sanctions and increased Iranian crude supply is weighing on Brent and WTI, which could pressure energy equities and benefit sectors sensitive to lower input costs. The Trump administration’s planned reduction in U.S. bank capital requirements is likely to support bank stocks, encourage lending, and potentially increase demand for Treasuries, with implications for the yield curve and financial sector risk appetite315.

Retail and tech are active pre-market. Walmart ’s Q1 beat and strong U.S. comps are offset by warnings that higher tariffs could soon drive price hikes, highlighting ongoing inflation pass-through risks for consumers5. The company’s shares are up, but the lack of detailed profit guidance and tariff uncertainty could cap upside. Starbucks ’ exploration of a China stake sale reflects intensifying local competition and macro pressures, a trend to watch for other U.S. consumer brands with China exposure12.

In digital assets, Coinbase ’s refusal to pay a $20M ransom after a data breach (costing up to $400M) is weighing on shares and keeps cybersecurity risks front and center for the sector2. Meanwhile, Mastercard’s move to enable crypto payments at scale8, Tether ’s $1B USDT mint7, and Jim Chanos’ arbitrage play (long Bitcoin , short MicroStrategy ) all point to continued evolution and volatility in the crypto and fintech space11.

Macro data from China remains mixed: new loan growth is weak amid trade tensions9, but U.S.-bound container bookings have surged after a tariff pause, suggesting pent-up demand in supply chains10. U.S. trade negotiations with Asia remain fluid, with Japan, India, and South Korea all seeking tariff relief—developments that could impact select exporters and currency pairs1819. Geopolitical headlines are also in play, with Russia-Ukraine talks and China-Russia military cooperation unlikely to move U.S. markets directly today but relevant for longer-term risk assessment420.