TL;DR

US-EU trade deal lifts equities; US pauses China tech curbs; Samsung-Tesla ink $16.5B chip pact.

Highlights

• US pauses new tech export controls to China, allowing Nvidia to resume AI chip shipments amid ongoing trade talks 1.
• US-EU trade deal imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods (down from 30% threat); EU to invest ~$600B in US and expand energy/defense purchases 2.
• European equities hit four-month highs on the trade deal; S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures point to new records 2.
• France criticizes the US-EU pact as unbalanced, seeking further concessions, especially on digital services and spirits 6.
• Samsung secures $16.5B chip contract with Tesla for next-gen AI processors, boosting both companies' shares; Texas foundry to benefit 3.
• Trump shortens Ukraine ceasefire ultimatum to Russia, increasing risk of energy sanctions if no progress 4.
• Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington, aiming to advance Gaza ceasefire and hostage talks; Egypt urges US to press for aid access 5.
• FBI and cybersecurity firms warn of increased airline-targeted cyberattacks by Scattered Spider; recent incidents at Qantas, Hawaiian Airlines, and WestJet 7.
• Tata Consultancy Services to cut 12,000 jobs (2% of workforce) amid client spending delays; shares down ~1% in Mumbai 10.
• GSK licenses Jiangsu Hengrui’s COPD drug for $500M upfront, with potential $12B in milestones; Hengrui shares surge 8.
• MicroStrategy price target raised to $680 by TD Cowen and Cantor Fitzgerald on bitcoin optimism, despite pause in new BTC purchases 11.
• CK Hutchison seeks a major Chinese partner for its $23B global ports sale; China COSCO seen as a candidate 9.

Commentary

US equity markets are set for a strong open, buoyed by the US-EU trade agreement that reduces tariff risk and secures significant European investment into the US 2. The 15% tariff compromise and the EU’s commitment to increase purchases of American energy and defense products provide a clear boost for US industrials, energy, and defense sectors 2. European markets rallied in response, and US futures signal continued strength 2. However, French criticism of the deal and calls for tougher terms—particularly for digital services—suggest further negotiation risk remains in the background 6.

The US freeze on new tech export controls to China is a positive for US semiconductor and AI supply chains, particularly for Nvidia and related names, as it allows blocked shipments to resume 1. This move comes as Samsung lands a major chip contract with Tesla , underscoring ongoing demand for advanced AI hardware and the strategic value of US-based foundries 3. The sector should see renewed attention, but policy risk lingers if US-China talks stall 1.

Geopolitical risk remains a factor. Trump’s shortened ultimatum to Russia on Ukraine raises the prospect of new energy sanctions, which could impact oil and gas markets 4. In the Middle East, Netanyahu’s upcoming meeting with Trump may accelerate Gaza ceasefire efforts, with regional leaders pressing for expanded humanitarian aid 5. Meanwhile, cybersecurity warnings targeting airlines highlight operational risks for travel and infrastructure stocks, following recent incidents at several carriers 7.

Elsewhere, GSK ’s licensing deal for a Chinese COPD drug signals ongoing cross-border pharma activity 8, and MicroStrategy’s raised price targets reflect continued institutional interest in bitcoin exposure 11. TCS’s job cuts point to ongoing margin pressures in global IT services, though direct US impact appears limited 10. CK Hutchison’s port sale negotiations, with China COSCO potentially joining, keep attention on global logistics and regulatory dynamics 9.

Traders should focus on US-EU trade implementation, US-China tech policy headlines, and any escalation in Ukraine or the Middle East. Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, industrials, energy, airlines, and crypto-exposed equities.