TL;DR

Trump imposes 30% EU tariffs; Bitcoin tops $122K; U.S. arms Ukraine, EU pays bill.

Highlights

• Trump to impose 30% tariffs on most EU imports from August 1; EU prepares €21B in retaliatory tariffs, but holds off immediate action 1.
• Trump to supply Patriot air-defense systems and potentially long-range missiles to Ukraine, with the EU covering the cost; major new U.S. arms package expected 219.
• Russia signals willingness to continue dialogue with the U.S. as Ukraine conflict escalates; Trump to make a statement on Russia policy 8.
• Bitcoin breaks above $122,000 on strong ETF demand and institutional inflows; U.S. Congress to discuss crypto regulation this week 5.
• South Korea’s exports rebound 4.3% on record chip sales, but shipments to the U.S. and China remain weak; Seoul cites U.S. tariff uncertainty as a risk 6.
• Iran threatens retaliation over potential U.S.–Israel military actions and UN sanctions; nuclear talks with U.S. remain unscheduled 37.
• Clashes in Syria’s Suweida kill at least 37 amid Syrian military deployment and Israeli airstrikes targeting government positions 204.
• ICE raids in California spark controversy after farmworker death; Trump administration appeals judge’s suspension of operations 17.
• Emails show Biden’s late-term pardons, including Fauci, were signed by autopen; Republicans launch inquiries 14.
• Indian foreign minister visits Beijing, signaling improved India–China ties as China chairs SCO 10.

Commentary

The U.S.–EU trade relationship is under renewed strain after Trump’s announcement of 30% tariffs on most EU imports, effective August 1 1. The EU’s €21 billion in prepared retaliatory tariffs, though not yet implemented, sets the stage for tense negotiations in the coming weeks 1. U.S. equities with significant European exposure—especially in autos, industrials, and consumer goods—face headline risk. Watch for volatility in related sectors and potential defensive positioning in U.S. Treasuries if talks deteriorate.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The U.S. is set to supply Ukraine with Patriot air-defense systems and potentially long-range missiles, with the EU covering the bill 219. This marks a notable escalation in military support and may draw a response from Russia, though Moscow signals it wants to keep diplomatic channels open 8. Defense and aerospace names such as RTX Corporation and Lockheed Martin Corp. could see movement 19, while energy markets may react to any further escalation in Eastern Europe or the Middle East, where Iran has issued fresh threats 3 and Syria remains unstable 204.

Crypto markets are in focus after Bitcoin ’s surge above $122,000, driven by strong ETF demand and institutional inflows 5. The upcoming ‘Crypto Week’ in Congress could impact sentiment and volatility across digital assets. In Asia, South Korea’s export rebound is led by semiconductors, but U.S. tariff uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for global supply chains 6.

Domestic headlines include renewed scrutiny of ICE operations after a fatal California raid and political fallout from leaked emails showing Biden’s use of autopen for late-term pardons 1714. These stories may influence sentiment in select sectors but are unlikely to drive broad market direction.