TL;DR

Trump weighs Iran strike; retail sales drop; Senate votes on stablecoin bill; shipping, crypto volatile.

Highlights

• Trump convened the National Security Council to weigh possible U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites; decision could come today117.
• U.S. deploys F-22s, F-35s, and over 30 tankers to the Middle East, expanding airpower in response to Israel-Iran hostilities2.
• Israel intensifies airstrikes on Iranian military and suspected nuclear facilities; both sides issue evacuation warnings for major cities34.
• War-risk insurance for Israel-bound ships triples; VLCC rates surge above $50,000/day as Frontline halts new Gulf bookings7.
• Bitcoin drops to $104,000 after Israel's strike on Iran triggers $1B in crypto liquidations8.
• U.S. May retail sales fell 0.9%, the largest drop in 2025; industrial production and capacity utilization also missed forecasts9.
• Senate sets 4:30 p.m. ET vote on the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, the first federal crypto regulation; Circle shares rally pre-market11.
• CBO projects House GOP tax bill would add $2.8T to deficit over 10 years, raising fiscal concerns18.
• Amazon to reduce corporate workforce over coming years due to AI-driven efficiency gains13.
• Microsoft and AMD announce multi-year partnership for next-gen Xbox chips, expanding gaming hardware collaboration14.
• FDA launches fast-track drug review voucher program, favoring large firms with late-stage candidates20.
• Silver hits $37/oz, a 13-year high, on safe-haven and industrial demand19.

Commentary

Markets are focused on the potential for direct U.S. military involvement in the Middle East as President Trump weighs strikes on Iranian nuclear sites117. The rapid U.S. military build-up—including advanced fighter jets and tankers—reflects the seriousness of the situation, with Israel and Iran exchanging attacks and issuing evacuation warnings for major cities234. This escalation has driven up war-risk premiums and shipping rates, particularly for oil tankers, and is contributing to a risk-off tone across global markets7.

Energy and shipping sectors are reacting to supply disruption risks, with war-risk insurance for Israel-bound voyages tripling and spot VLCC rates doubling from last week. Frontline ’s halt of new Gulf bookings signals heightened caution among operators7. Precious metals are seeing inflows, with silver reaching a 13-year high as investors seek safe-haven assets19. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have sold off sharply, with $1B in liquidations as traders reduce exposure to risk assets8.

U.S. economic data added to the cautious sentiment. May retail sales fell 0.9%, the steepest drop this year, and industrial production missed expectations, suggesting softer consumer demand and slowing industrial activity9. This weak macro backdrop, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, is weighing on equities, especially in consumer and cyclical sectors.

On the policy front, the Senate’s scheduled vote on the GENIUS Stablecoin Act could provide a catalyst for crypto and fintech names, with Circle shares already moving higher11. The CBO’s projection that the House GOP tax bill would add $2.8T to the deficit is likely to fuel further debate over fiscal sustainability18. In corporate news, Amazon ’s planned AI-driven workforce reductions and the Microsoft -AMD gaming chip partnership highlight ongoing shifts in tech and labor markets1314. The FDA’s new fast-track drug review voucher program may benefit large-cap pharma with late-stage candidates20.

Traders should monitor for White House or Pentagon statements on Iran, the outcome of the Senate stablecoin vote, and any further moves in energy, shipping, and safe-haven assets as the session closes.