TL;DR

Iran-Israel tensions escalate; Haifa refinery hit, solar stocks drop on US tax plan; US-UK trade deal signed.

Highlights

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatens imminent precision strikes on Israeli cities; Bazan’s Haifa refinery shut after Iranian missile hit24.
• Trump calls for immediate evacuation of Tehran, reiterates Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons; returns to Washington early from G7 amid crisis315.
• US signals it will not join Israel-Iran conflict unless Americans are targeted; additional forces deployed to CENTCOM region56.
• US-UK sign bilateral trade deal at G7, pledging tariff cuts on industrial and farm goods; implementation expected soon1.
• Senate Finance Committee releases draft of Trump’s reconciliation bill: deeper Medicaid cuts, permanent corporate tax breaks, and deregulation of certain firearms8.
• Senate tax plan proposes ending wind and solar credits by 2028, extending nuclear incentives; solar stocks drop sharply after hours9.
• OpenAI considers antitrust complaint against Microsoft over for-profit conversion; Pentagon awards OpenAI $200M AI contract for defense AI prototypes710.
• JPMorgan files trademark for “JPMD” stablecoin as Congress prepares to vote on federal stablecoin regulation (GENIUS Act)11.
• Mitsubishi in advanced talks to acquire US shale producer Aethon Energy for ~$8B, expanding North American natural gas exposure12.
• G7 leaders agree on strategy to secure lithium and cobalt supply chains, aiming to reduce reliance on China14.
• X suspends accounts of meme-coin platform Pump.fun and founders; no regulatory action announced13.

Commentary

Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominated after-hours headlines, with Iran threatening imminent strikes and Israel’s largest refinery forced offline by a missile attack24. The US is reinforcing its defensive posture in the region but has drawn a clear line against direct involvement unless American assets are targeted56. The risk of further energy infrastructure disruptions is now front and center, with potential implications for oil and refined product prices and broader risk sentiment.

On the policy front, the US-UK trade deal marks a step forward for transatlantic trade, particularly for industrial and agricultural sectors, though specifics remain limited1. Domestically, the Senate’s draft reconciliation bill and tax plan signal a shift in fiscal and energy policy: deeper Medicaid cuts, permanent corporate tax breaks, and a phaseout of wind and solar credits by 202889. The latter drove a sharp after-hours selloff in solar stocks, while nuclear and hydro are set to benefit from extended incentives9.

In technology, OpenAI’s disputes with Microsoft over control and IP come as the company secures a $200M Pentagon contract for AI defense prototypes, highlighting both opportunity and friction in the AI sector710. JPMorgan ’s move toward a USD-backed stablecoin coincides with Congressional debate on stablecoin regulation, signaling continued institutional interest in digital assets11. Meanwhile, X’s suspension of a prominent meme-coin platform underscores ongoing scrutiny in the crypto space, though no enforcement action has been confirmed13.

Mitsubishi’s potential $8B acquisition of Aethon Energy would mark a significant expansion into US natural gas, reflecting continued global interest in North American energy assets12. The G7’s coordinated push to secure critical mineral supply chains is a medium-term development for miners and battery supply chains, with implications for commodity markets and industrial policy14.