TL;DR

US imposes sweeping tariffs on Canada, Brazil, Asia; Bitcoin hits $118K on ETF inflows; OPEC+ signals output pause.

Highlights

• US to impose 35% tariffs on all Canadian imports and 50% on Brazilian goods starting August 1; both countries signal retaliation1214.
• New US tariffs of up to 25% to hit Japan, South Korea, and eight ASEAN nations; Japan urges reduced US reliance in key sectors1319.
• OPEC+ signals possible pause in oil output hikes after August; Brent crude firms on supply uncertainty3.
• Bitcoin surges past $118,000 on $2.4B short squeeze and record $1.2B daily ETF inflows; Bitcoin now fifth-largest global asset4517.
• Ethereum ETFs see $383M in inflows as Ethereum tops $3,000; institutional crypto demand deepens5.
• UK GDP falls 0.1% in May, extending contraction and raising odds of August BoE rate cut10.
• DAX hits record high as European equities rally on soft inflation data11.
• China conducts naval and amphibious drills near Taiwan; US Secretary of State Rubio reassures Asian allies amid tariff concerns719.
• Trump administration bars undocumented immigrants from Head Start and job-training aid, restricting federal benefits20.
• Israeli operations intensify in Gaza; UN reports nearly 800 Palestinian deaths near aid sites since late May89.
• China ends 24-year ban on Japanese beef imports, opening market for Japanese exporters12.

Commentary

US trade policy is the central market driver this morning, with the White House announcing sweeping tariffs on Canadian, Brazilian, and key Asian imports effective August 11219. Both Canada and Brazil are preparing retaliatory measures214, and Japan is openly reconsidering its economic reliance on the US13. This marks a clear escalation in global trade tensions, with direct implications for US multinationals, especially those in autos, agriculture, and manufacturing. Expect volatility in CAD , BRL , and JPY , and potential pressure on US firms with significant foreign revenue exposure121419.

Commodities are in focus as OPEC+ sends mixed messages on future oil output. Brent crude is firming on uncertainty, but with Goldman Sachs projecting a supply surplus later this year, traders should watch for any formal OPEC+ decision in early August3. Energy equities and oil-sensitive sectors may see choppy trading as the market digests shifting supply signals alongside broader trade risks3.

Crypto is sharply outperforming, with Bitcoin breaking above $118,000 on a large short squeeze and record ETF inflows45. Bitcoin’s market cap now ranks above Amazon , and Ethereum ETFs are also seeing robust demand517. The scale of institutional flows suggests crypto could remain a pocket of strength, even as traditional risk assets face headwinds from trade and macro uncertainty45.

European equities are holding up, with the DAX hitting new highs and soft inflation data supporting the case for further central bank easing11. However, UK GDP data confirms a loss of momentum, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in August10. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist, with China’s military drills near Taiwan7 and ongoing violence in Gaza89 remaining potential sources of volatility for defense and commodity markets.