TL;DR

Trump delays EU tariffs; global bond yields surge; OPEC+ meets early as oil stays below $60.

Highlights

• Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU goods to July 9; European and U.S. equities rally, euro hits $1.1418 1.
• Global bond sell-off accelerates: Japan’s 30-year yield at 3.20% (record), U.S. 30-year at 5.05%; Japanese institutions report large losses 2.
• OPEC+ moves July output meeting to May 31 as oil falls below $60; production hike for July under review 38.
• EU approves €150B SAFE joint defense loan fund, to be financed by EU bonds for military procurement 6.
• Russia launches largest drone/missile attack on Ukraine; Trump considers new Russia sanctions (excluding banks); EU/US halt joint sanctions enforcement 578.
• Taiwan reports 34 Chinese aircraft, 10 naval vessels nearby; U.S. confirms 500 military trainers on island 9.
• Trump unveils $175B “Golden Dome” missile shield; North Korea, Russia, China warn of space militarization 10.
• Wall Street banks plan joint stablecoin, potentially driving $2T in U.S. Treasury demand; Circle files for NYSE IPO 1117.
• Xiaomi Q1 revenue +47%, net income +64.5% on smartphones and EVs; PDD Holdings Q1 misses, shares drop 11–15% 1213.
• BYD overtakes Tesla in April European BEV sales amid price war; European BEV market expands 14.
• Coffee prices hit record highs (Arabica +58%, Robusta +70%) on supply shocks; further retail price hikes expected 15.
• ECB’s Lagarde: euro could become alternative to U.S. dollar as dollar’s reserve share falls to 58% 16.

Commentary

The delay of U.S. tariffs on EU goods has given global equities a boost, with European indices and U.S. futures both rallying 1. The euro ’s strength reflects both this reprieve and a broader move away from the dollar, as highlighted by ECB President Lagarde’s comments on the euro’s potential as a global reserve alternative 16. However, the underlying trade tensions are unresolved, and negotiations remain complex 1.

Bond markets are under pressure globally, with Japan’s super-long yields reaching record highs and U.S. 30-year Treasuries above 5% 2. Japanese financial institutions are facing substantial losses, raising concerns about potential capital repatriation and further volatility in global fixed income 2. The move by major Wall Street banks to develop a joint stablecoin, and Circle ’s IPO, signal increasing institutional interest in tokenized assets and digital dollar alternatives, with possible implications for Treasury demand and liquidity 1117.

Commodities remain volatile: oil is under $60 ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, where a production increase is on the table 38, while coffee prices have surged on weather and supply disruptions, suggesting further consumer price inflation 15. Defense and security spending are rising, with the EU’s €150B SAFE fund and Trump’s $175B “Golden Dome” missile shield both signaling increased fiscal commitments to military procurement and space-based defense 610. These developments may support defense sector equities and related industries.

Geopolitical risks are elevated. Russia’s record drone and missile assault on Ukraine 5, the breakdown in joint EU-U.S. sanctions enforcement 8, and Trump’s mixed signals on new sanctions 7 all add uncertainty to energy and defense markets. In Asia, China’s increased military activity near Taiwan and the U.S. deployment of more trainers to the island keep cross-strait tensions high, with potential implications for regional risk assets and supply chains 920. In corporate news, Chinese EV and tech exporters show resilience (Xiaomi, BYD), but PDD ’s miss and the ongoing price war highlight margin and regulatory headwinds 121314.

Traders should monitor the upcoming OPEC+ meeting 3, bond market volatility 2, euro strength 16, and any escalation in Ukraine or Taiwan 59. Defense, energy, and select tech remain in focus, while institutional flows into tokenized assets and stablecoins could accelerate as traditional markets adjust to higher yields 1117.