TL;DR

US jobless claims fall; IBM, Tesla, Sarepta plunge on earnings/news; Chevron resumes Venezuela oil output.

Highlights

• US initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, the lowest since April, but continuing claims remain elevated at 1.955 million, near 2021 highs117.
• Trump administration restored Chevron ’s license to pump oil in Venezuela, with proceeds shielded from Maduro’s government3.
• IBM shares dropped 10% after Q2 software revenue missed estimates, erasing much of its YTD gains and weighing on Dow futures4.
• Tesla shares fell 8.6% on weak revenue and ongoing tariff and tax incentive headwinds; Trump softened stance on Musk firms but scrutiny remains2.
• Microsoft CEO Nadella defended recent layoffs and outlined an $80 billion AI infrastructure investment, signaling further organizational changes5.
• Chinese lithium carbonate futures surged 8% on a three-month production halt; US lithium stocks hit five-month highs11.
• BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) surpassed $10 billion AUM, with Ethereum spot ETF inflows outpacing Bitcoin for five days9.
• Sarepta shares plunged 19% after FDA required new safety studies for its gene therapy, raising cash flow concerns6.
• ECB paused rate cuts after seven reductions, holding deposit rate at 2% and warning of external risks8.
• Nvidia AI chips worth over $1 billion have been smuggled into China despite US export controls, highlighting enforcement gaps7.
• Valero beat Q2 estimates on strong refining margins, though net income declined year-over-year16.
• Intel set to report Q2 results after close, with expectations for minimal profit amid ongoing turnaround efforts15.

Commentary

Labor market data continues to show a nuanced picture: initial claims are falling, indicating limited new layoffs, but elevated continuing claims suggest re-employment is taking longer117. This dynamic may keep the Fed cautious ahead of next week’s meeting, with markets likely to trade sideways on mixed economic signals.

In energy, the Trump administration’s decision to allow Chevron to resume Venezuelan oil production is aimed at boosting global supply without benefiting the Maduro regime3. This, combined with strong refining margins at Valero 16, may pressure crude prices and support US refiners. Meanwhile, lithium markets are reacting sharply to Chinese production halts, with US lithium stocks rallying on anticipated supply constraints11.

Tech remains volatile. IBM ’s software miss triggered a sharp selloff, dragging on the Dow 417 and raising questions about software demand in legacy tech. Microsoft ’s $80 billion AI investment and continued restructuring signal that capital is still flowing aggressively into AI infrastructure5, while Tesla ’s revenue miss and tariff headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment in EVs2. The smuggling of Nvidia chips into China underscores persistent challenges in enforcing US tech export controls and may keep semiconductor geopolitics in focus7.

In crypto, BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF is drawing significant inflows and outpacing Bitcoin products, highlighting shifting institutional interest9. Sarepta ’s sharp decline after an FDA setback underscores ongoing regulatory risk in biotech6. The ECB’s rate pause and lack of forward guidance keep the euro in play, with global rate differentials and trade tensions still a risk for US multinationals8. Intel ’s post-close results will be closely watched for further read-throughs on chip sector demand15.