TL;DR

US eases China export curbs; Trump hikes Vietnam tariffs; US jobs data seen weakening.

Highlights

• US lifts export curbs on chip-design software and ethane to China after rare-earths deal; Synopsys, Cadence, Siemens restoring access 1.
• Trump sets 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods, 40% on transshipped products; China warns of possible retaliation 214.
• Goldman Sachs projects weak US June payrolls (+85,000), with unemployment seen rising to 4.3% amid tariff and immigration drag 5.
• Pentagon halts some Ukraine arms shipments, triggering GOP backlash and European efforts to reroute aid 4.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $408M inflows (led by Fidelity), while Ethereum ETFs post $1.8M outflows 10.
• Del Monte Foods and CMX Cinemas file for Chapter 11, citing high rates and weak demand 18.
• Speaker Johnson says GOP has votes to advance Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the House 3.
• EU to propose joint bond issuance for crisis funding in new budget plan 8.
• North Korean hackers deploy new “NimDoor” Mac malware targeting crypto firms 13.
• UK markets stabilize after PM Starmer reaffirms fiscal discipline following brief gilt and sterling selloff 12.

Commentary

US-China trade tensions eased slightly as the Commerce Department rolled back recent export restrictions on chip-design software and ethane, following a rare-earths agreement 1. This is a positive for US semiconductor and energy firms with China exposure, but the broader trade backdrop remains tense. The US announced new tariffs on Vietnamese goods and stricter rules on transshipped products, prompting warnings from China about possible countermeasures 214. These moves add complexity to Asian supply chains and could impact US importers, especially those with exposure to Vietnam and China.

On the macro front, Goldman Sachs expects a notable slowdown in US June payrolls, with a projected gain of just 85,000 and unemployment rising to 4.3% 5. The drag is attributed to tariffs, weaker manufacturing, and immigration policy shifts. While the data may not prompt an immediate Fed response, a downside surprise could bring forward expectations for rate cuts. Equities may see rotation toward defensives, while Treasuries could benefit from any uptick in safe-haven demand.

Elsewhere, the Pentagon’s pause on some Ukraine arms shipments has drawn criticism from Congress and triggered European allies to seek alternative channels for aid 4. This could affect US defense contractors and adds a layer of geopolitical uncertainty. In corporate news, Del Monte Foods and CMX Cinemas filed for Chapter 11, highlighting ongoing stress among consumer-facing legacy brands due to high rates and changing demand patterns 18.

Crypto flows diverged sharply, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $400M in inflows while Ethereum ETFs saw outflows, indicating shifting investor sentiment in digital assets 10. Meanwhile, North Korean cyberattacks targeting crypto firms underscore persistent operational risks in the sector 13. In Europe, UK assets rebounded after PM Starmer reaffirmed fiscal discipline, and the EU’s revived joint bond issuance plan may support regional financial stability 128.