TL;DR

Fed signals imminent rate cuts; Apple jumps on $100B US investment; new tariffs hit India, Switzerland.

Highlights

• Fed’s Daly and Kashkari signal rate cuts are likely soon, possibly more than two this year, citing labor market softness and slowing growth1.
• Trump administration imposes 25% tariff on most Indian imports over Russian oil purchases, raising total duties to 50%; India signals retaliation2.
• US-Swiss trade talks collapse; 39% tariff on Swiss imports (gold, pharma, watches) takes effect Thursday, likely disrupting supply chains3.
• US to impose secondary sanctions on Russia Friday, targeting firms aiding Russian trade; Trump plans direct talks with Putin, possibly including Zelensky45.
• Apple to announce $100B additional US manufacturing investment; shares surge 5.8% on the news, largest rally since May67.
• Shopify jumps 20% after Q2 revenue and earnings beat, with strong Q3 outlook; tariff impact muted10.
• Disney beats profit forecasts, lifts guidance, expands ESPN with $1.6B WWE deal and NFL partnership; shares slip 1–2% on linear TV concerns8.
• Six Flags posts $100M Q2 loss, CEO to step down; shares fall 15% after weather disruptions and weak early season9.
• US crude inventories drop 3M barrels; WTI and Brent rise ~1.7% on tighter supply and new India tariffs162.
• OpenAI offers ChatGPT Enterprise to US government for $1 per agency; GPT-5 launch set for Aug. 71213.
• Fundstrat’s Tom Lee amasses $3B in Ethereum, targets 5% of supply; ETH and BTC buoyed by positive sentiment1411.
• Blackstone launches $3.5B bid for Japan’s TechnoPro, closes $6.5B Enverus deal, signaling active PE market15.

Commentary

Fed officials are preparing markets for imminent rate cuts, citing clear signs of a cooling labor market and slowing economic growth. Daly and Kashkari both suggest that more than two cuts may be needed if softness persists, increasing expectations for policy easing at the September FOMC meeting1. This dovish tone is supporting risk assets, with traders watching incoming data for further confirmation.

Trade policy remains a source of volatility. The new 25% US tariff on Indian imports, in response to India’s Russian oil purchases, doubles the effective duty to 50% and has already triggered a sharp response from New Delhi2. Simultaneously, the collapse of US-Swiss tariff talks means a 39% levy on Swiss goods will hit key import categories like gold and pharmaceuticals3. These developments risk further supply chain disruptions and could add to input costs for US manufacturers, even as the Fed prepares to cut rates.

In equities, Apple ’s $100B US manufacturing pledge and strong share rally are driving tech momentum67, while Shopify’s robust results and upbeat outlook are fueling outsized gains in e-commerce10. Disney ’s earnings beat and expanded sports content deals were overshadowed by concerns over its traditional TV business8. Six Flags, meanwhile, suffered a steep selloff on weak results and leadership turnover9.

Commodities are reacting to both policy and supply news: crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels, and oil prices are up on tighter supply and tariff-driven concerns162. In digital assets, Fundstrat’s large Ethereum accumulation and OpenAI’s upcoming GPT-5 launch are supporting positive sentiment in crypto and AI-adjacent names1413.

Traders should stay alert to further policy headlines, especially around Fed commentary, sanctions implementation, and any signals from the Trump-Putin meeting45. Watch for continued flows into tech, energy, and select consumer names, while monitoring for any late-session volatility from macro or geopolitical developments.