TL;DR

U.S. strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites; LNG, oil, and crypto markets face heightened volatility; gold surges.

Highlights

• U.S. airstrikes hit three Iranian nuclear sites; Iran signals possible NPT withdrawal, raising nuclear risk16.
• QatarEnergy warns Israel-Iran conflict could threaten 20% of global LNG supply; crisis talks with majors held2.
• Houthis threaten renewed attacks on U.S. and commercial shipping in the Red Sea if U.S. backs Israeli strikes3.
• British Airways suspends Dubai and Doha flights after U.S. strikes, adding to Gulf aviation disruptions4.
• ICE raises Brent crude margin requirements by 24% amid increased speculative positioning and geopolitical risk11.
• Bitcoin slides below $102,000 as Israel–Iran escalation triggers $500 million in crypto liquidations12.
• US Dollar Index drops over 9% YTD to lowest since mid-2023; gold up 29% for best year since 197913.
• India lifts Russian oil imports to two-year highs, reducing reliance on Middle East amid Gulf tensions19.
• U.S. Commerce Department considers revoking chip export waivers for Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC in China9.
• Congo extends cobalt export ban by three months, maintaining pressure on EV and electronics supply chains10.
• China, Saudi Arabia, and UK condemn U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, urging restraint and warning of destabilization516.
• SNB signals willingness to defend franc after U.S. places Switzerland on currency watch list; negative rates not imminent18.

Commentary

The U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have escalated geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with Iran hinting at a possible withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty16. This development, alongside warnings from QatarEnergy about LNG supply risks2 and renewed Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping3, increases uncertainty for global energy markets. The suspension of British Airways flights to key Gulf hubs further highlights operational risks in the region4. ICE’s decision to raise Brent crude margin requirements reflects both heightened volatility and increased speculative activity11, while India’s pivot to Russian crude underscores how buyers are already adjusting to potential disruptions in Middle East supply channels19.

Safe-haven flows are evident: the US Dollar Index has posted its worst first-half performance since 1986, while gold is on track for its best year since 197913. In contrast, crypto markets have been hit hard by the regional escalation, with Bitcoin dropping sharply and widespread liquidations forcing risk reduction12. These moves suggest traders are favoring traditional hedges over digital assets in the current environment.

Supply chain risks remain elevated. The U.S. Commerce Department’s consideration of revoking chip export waivers for major Asian foundries operating in China could disrupt global semiconductor flows, especially if implemented amid ongoing trade frictions9. The extension of Congo’s cobalt export ban continues to pressure EV and electronics manufacturers, with no immediate relief in sight10.

Traders should monitor for any Iranian response, further disruptions to energy and shipping infrastructure, and updates from central banks and regulators. Developments in the Red Sea, LNG markets, and semiconductor policy could drive further volatility across commodities, currencies, and equities into next week.