TL;DR

Core PCE inflation tops forecasts; tariffs expand to 80 countries; Microsoft, Figma drive tech gains.

Highlights

• Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in June, exceeding forecasts and extending the Fed’s challenge on rate cuts 1.
• Trump administration expands tariffs: 50% on most Brazilian goods, 25% on Indian imports, and wider tariffs on 80 countries set for August 1; US-Mexico agree to 90-day delay on new tariffs 45.
• China halts approvals for outbound investments into the US amid escalating trade tensions 3.
• Trump orders 17 major drugmakers to cut US prices within 60 days or face potential 200% tariffs; Section 232 probe on pharma imports ongoing 2.
• S&P 500 reversed from near 6,400, with options data signaling waning bullish sentiment and increased volatility risk 14.
• Microsoft stock jumped 8.2% on strong Azure growth, surpassing $4 trillion market cap; Figma surged over 200% in NYSE debut 87.
• Google loses Ninth Circuit appeal in Epic antitrust case, must open Play Store to competing app stores and billing systems 9.
• SEC launches “Project Crypto” to modernize digital asset regulation; Visa expands stablecoin settlement to PYUSD, USDG, and new blockchains 615.
• Tether posts record $4.9B Q2 profit, with $127B in US Treasuries, highlighting stablecoins’ growing role in US debt markets 11.
• Roblox shares up 20% on strong bookings growth and raised 2025 outlook; AbbVie and KKR beat earnings and lift guidance 131720.
• Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon meets Trump at White House as administration seeks Wall Street input on economic policy 10.
• US and allies condemn Iranian intelligence threats; US sets Aug. 8 deadline for Ukraine peace deal; US imposes visa sanctions on Palestinian Authority officials 161819.

Commentary

US markets are contending with a mix of sticky inflation, aggressive trade policy, and select tech-driven rallies. The core PCE inflation reading at 2.8%—above expectations and the Fed’s target—complicates the outlook for rate cuts, especially as tariffs on a wide range of imports are set to expand further 14. The S&P 500 ’s reversal from highs and defensive options positioning reflect increased caution, with traders wary of both macro and policy headwinds 14.

Trade remains a central risk. The Trump administration’s widening tariffs—now targeting Brazil, India, and up to 80 countries—are beginning to show up in corporate cost warnings and growth forecasts 4. The temporary 90-day tariff reprieve for Mexico offers some relief for North American supply chains, but China’s freeze on new US-bound investments and the threat of steep pharmaceutical tariffs signal that escalation risk remains high 352. These developments are likely to weigh on multinationals, industrials, and consumer sectors sensitive to input costs.

Tech and digital assets continue to see pockets of strength. Microsoft ’s strong Azure-driven quarter and Figma’s outsized IPO debut highlight ongoing investor demand for AI and cloud exposure, even as broader sentiment turns defensive 87. Google ’s antitrust loss could have longer-term implications for the mobile software ecosystem 9. Meanwhile, regulatory momentum in crypto—via the SEC’s “Project Crypto” and Visa ’s stablecoin expansion—signals further integration of blockchain into traditional finance, with Tether’s record Treasury holdings underscoring crypto’s growing footprint in US debt markets 61511.

Earnings from Roblox , AbbVie , and KKR show that strong execution and guidance can still drive significant stock moves, even in a choppy macro environment 131720. Meanwhile, ongoing White House engagement with Wall Street and new geopolitical deadlines (Ukraine, Iran) add to the late-session headline risk 10161819. Traders should monitor volatility around the S&P 500 6,400 level and remain alert to further policy or geopolitical developments into the close 14.