TL;DR

Nvidia hit by $8B China loss; Synopsys halts China sales; Claude 4 matches Gemini 2.5 Pro.

Highlights

• Nvidia projects an $8B revenue loss in Q2 after new US export curbs close off the $50B China AI chip market; $4.5B inventory charge taken in Q1 13.
• Chinese tech firms (Alibaba , Tencent, Baidu ) accelerate shift to domestic AI chips; Nvidia and AMD to launch compliant B20 and Radeon AI PRO R9700 chips for China in July 2.
• Synopsys halts all sales and support in China after new US export controls on semiconductor design software; suspends financial guidance 4.
• Nvidia posts $44.1B Q1 revenue (+69% YoY), driven by data center AI demand; US, Middle East, and Taiwan deals offset China losses 3.
• Dell and Marvell report strong AI-driven results: Dell secures $12.1B in AI server orders, Marvell Q1 revenue up 63% YoY, both raise guidance 1213.
• Nvidia and Dell to deliver DOE’s Doudna (NERSC-10) supercomputer in 2026 using new Vera Rubin chips; 3–5x performance per watt over predecessor 14.
• Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4 and Sonnet 4 achieve 61–62% coding benchmark scores, matching Google Gemini 2.5 Pro and outperforming previous Claude models 10.
• SakanaAILabs and UBC introduce Darwin Gödel Machine, an AI system that self-improves via evolutionary code rewriting; boosts SWE-bench score from 20% to 50% 9.
• Snorkel AI raises $100M Series D at $1.3B valuation; LMArena secures $100M seed at $600M valuation, both focusing on AI evaluation and data labeling 8.
• Grammarly secures $1B non-dilutive funding to expand its AI productivity platform post-Coda acquisition; platform now powers AI agents across 500,000+ apps 7.
• Google rolls out Gemini AI for automatic video and email summaries in Workspace and Gmail, targeting enterprise productivity 11.
• New York Times licenses content to Amazon for AI use in its first generative AI deal; ongoing legal disputes with OpenAI and Microsoft 5.
• Google -DOJ antitrust case concludes; judge to rule on Chrome sale and Apple payments, with implications for AI search competition 15.
• Delaware AG hires bank to value OpenAI nonprofit equity amid for-profit conversion, signaling regulatory scrutiny and potential delays for IPO plans 6.

Commentary

US export restrictions are reshaping the global AI hardware landscape. Nvidia faces an $8B revenue hit in Q2 and a $4.5B inventory charge from unsold H20 chips, as the $50B China data center market becomes inaccessible 13. Chinese tech giants are quickly transitioning to domestic AI chips, with a three-month disruption expected as they exhaust Nvidia stockpiles 2. Nvidia and AMD will release lower-spec, export-compliant chips for China in July, but the long-term trend is clear: a decoupling of US and Chinese AI hardware supply chains 2. Synopsys ’ abrupt halt of all China sales after new export controls on EDA software further accelerates China’s efforts to localize its semiconductor ecosystem 4.

Despite China headwinds, AI infrastructure demand remains strong in other regions. Nvidia , Dell , and Marvell all reported robust growth, with Dell securing $12.1B in AI server orders and Marvell ’s data center revenue up 78% YoY 1213. Nvidia is offsetting China losses with new deals in the US, Middle East, and Taiwan 3. The DOE’s planned Doudna supercomputer, built by Nvidia and Dell using next-gen Vera Rubin chips, reflects continued investment in high-performance AI infrastructure 14.

On the model and software front, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4 and Sonnet 4 now match Google Gemini 2.5 Pro on coding benchmarks, highlighting rapid progress in foundation model capabilities 10. SakanaAILabs and UBC’s Darwin Gödel Machine introduces a self-improving AI framework, showing significant gains on SWE-bench and Polyglot benchmarks—an early signal of more autonomous AI development 9. In the enterprise segment, Google and Grammarly are expanding AI-powered productivity tools, while Snorkel AI and LMArena’s new funding rounds underscore the growing demand for robust AI evaluation and data labeling solutions 87.

Regulatory and data licensing developments are also in focus. The New York Times’ content deal with Amazon marks a shift toward formalized data licensing for AI training, as legal disputes over copyright with OpenAI and Microsoft continue 5. The Google -DOJ antitrust case could reshape the search and AI market structure, depending on the judge’s ruling on Chrome and default search payments 15. OpenAI’s planned for-profit conversion faces new scrutiny, with the Delaware AG’s equity valuation move potentially delaying its IPO timeline 6.