TL;DR

Trump-Xi to restart trade talks; US tightens China tech controls; rare earth curbs hit autos.

Highlights

• Trump and Xi to meet in London on June 9 to resume high-level US-China trade and rare-earth negotiations; both sides cite progress on tariffs and rare earths1.
• US suspends all export licenses for nuclear plant components to China, tightening controls on strategic tech transfers2.
• China’s rare earth export curbs disrupt global auto supply chains, with India’s EV sector facing possible July production halts and price increases3.
• Boeing resumes 737 Max deliveries to China after tariff reductions and DOJ settlement; 90-day US-China trade truce in place5.
• Swiss government proposes $26B capital increase for UBS by 2027, aiming to strengthen banking sector resilience4.
• SEC approves Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index (SOL, ADA, XLM, XRP), improving prospects for spot altcoin ETFs17.
• UK FCA proposes lifting ban on retail crypto ETNs; consultation open through July, aligning UK closer to EU crypto rules16.
• US imposes new sanctions on Iran’s shadow banking network; Trump warns Iran against uranium enrichment, threatening military response87.
• Russian forces launch largest strike on Kharkiv since 2022; Germany announces plan to add 60,000 troops to meet NATO targets1012.
• Leaked FSB memo reveals Russian counterintelligence program against Chinese espionage, despite official “no-limits” partnership11.
• Spain halts Venezuelan oil imports ahead of US sanctions; Venezuela signs deals with Chinese oilfield service firms19.
• Circle surges 168% after $1.1B NYSE IPO; Gemini files confidentially for US listing, highlighting strong demand for crypto equities20.

Commentary

US-China relations are in focus as Trump and Xi prepare for direct talks in London aimed at easing trade tensions and resolving rare-earth supply issues1. While both sides project optimism, the US move to suspend nuclear plant component exports to China signals ongoing strategic competition, particularly in sensitive technology sectors2. The outcome of Monday’s negotiations will be closely watched by industrials, autos, and tech, with any progress on tariffs or rare-earths likely to drive short-term moves in equities exposed to global supply chains13.

China’s rare earth export curbs continue to ripple through the auto sector, with Indian EV manufacturers warning of imminent production halts and price hikes3. Japanese and European automakers are also affected, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical developments3. The resumption of Boeing 737 Max deliveries to China and the temporary tariff truce provide a near-term boost for US aerospace, but underlying trade risks remain5.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s financial networks and issued fresh military warnings over uranium enrichment87, while Russia escalated attacks on Kharkiv and Germany announced a significant military expansion to meet NATO goals1012. These developments may support defense equities and keep energy markets alert, especially as Spain halts Venezuelan oil imports and Venezuela pivots to Chinese service providers to maintain production19.

In financials, the Swiss government’s proposed capital increase for UBS reflects ongoing regulatory tightening post-Credit Suisse, with implications for European bank capital planning4. Austria faces higher borrowing costs after a Fitch downgrade, underscoring fiscal pressures in parts of Europe18. Meanwhile, crypto markets are buoyed by Circle 's blockbuster IPO and the SEC’s approval of a Nasdaq crypto index for major altcoins, setting the stage for potential spot ETF launches2017. The UK’s move to consult on lifting its retail crypto ETN ban further signals regulatory convergence with the EU and continued institutionalization of digital assets16.

Traders should monitor headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, developments in rare earths and tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical risk in Ukraine and the Middle East. Crypto, defense, and select industrials are likely to see increased volatility in the near term.