TL;DR

Fed split on July rate cut; House passes stablecoin bill; Union Pacific eyes $200B Norfolk Southern deal.

Highlights

• Fed Governor Waller signals support for a July rate cut, citing slowing growth and inflation near target; Dallas Fed’s Logan urges caution due to inflation and tariff risks1.
• US House passes the GENIUS Act, establishing the first federal stablecoin rules; President Trump expected to sign2.
• House advances Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act, moving broader crypto regulation forward2.
• Trump administration preparing executive order to allow 401(k)s to invest in private equity, crypto, gold, and other alternatives3.
• Union Pacific in early talks to acquire Norfolk Southern in a potential $200B rail merger; Norfolk Southern shares jump ~4% after hours4.
• Netflix beats Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, raises 2025 guidance; shares slip ~2% post-market5.
• Interactive Brokers beats Q2 estimates on strong trading and interest income; shares up ~6% after hours6.
• Foreign net inflows into US assets rebound to $259B in May; Treasury holdings near record highs, led by Canadian buying7.
• XRP jumps 12% to a record $3.41 after SEC drops lawsuit; altcoins outperform Bitcoin this week8.
• Perplexity AI’s valuation rises to $18B+ on rapid revenue growth9.

Commentary

Fed policy remains the primary focus as officials send mixed signals ahead of the July FOMC meeting. Waller’s dovish stance, pointing to a marked slowdown in GDP growth and hiring, increases the odds of a near-term rate cut, but Logan’s warning about inflation and tariff-driven price risks keeps markets cautious. The policy split leaves rates and risk assets sensitive to further Fed commentary and incoming economic data1.

Crypto regulation advanced materially, with the House approving the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and moving forward on broader market structure and anti-CBDC bills. These developments, along with the expected presidential signature, provide clearer rules for digital assets and could accelerate institutional adoption2. The administration’s plan to allow 401(k)s access to private equity, crypto, and gold would further expand the investor base for alternatives, pending final guidance3.

Corporate headlines were mixed. Union Pacific’s preliminary talks to acquire Norfolk Southern drove a sharp after-hours rally in NSC shares and could spur further activity in the transport sector if talks progress4. Netflix delivered another earnings beat and raised its outlook, but shares slipped as strong results appear priced in5. Interactive Brokers ’ robust quarter, powered by higher trading volumes and net interest income, was rewarded with a notable post-market gain6.

Foreign demand for US assets remains strong, with May’s net inflows and near-record Treasury holdings suggesting continued global appetite for US fixed income, despite policy and trade uncertainties7. In crypto, XRP ’s rally following the SEC lawsuit resolution highlights the impact of regulatory clarity, with altcoins broadly outperforming Bitcoin this week8. AI investment remains robust, as seen in Perplexity’s rapid valuation jump9.

Traders should monitor further Fed communication, Senate action on crypto bills, and any official move on 401(k) alternative asset access. Expect rates, the dollar, and digital assets to remain especially sensitive to policy headlines and regulatory developments.