TL;DR

Oil tumbles on Israel-Iran ceasefire headlines; Iran denies deal; Tesla, Starbucks rally on corporate news.

Highlights

• Trump announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire, sending oil futures down 6%1, but Iran denied any deal2.
• WTI crude fell 11% to below $68 on reduced risk premium after limited escalation and no energy infrastructure damage4.
• Iran’s parliament backed possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global oil flows; no action yet3.
• Iran fired missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar; U.S. defenses intercepted most, no casualties reported713.
• Israel and Iran issued mutual evacuation orders for civilians in Tehran and Tel Aviv suburbs, signaling ongoing risk11.
• White House claimed U.S. strikes "obliterated" Iran’s nuclear capability; Iran’s leadership remains defiant1512.
• Gulf states briefly closed, then reopened airspace after the missile strike; flight disruptions were short-lived14.
• Tesla shares closed up 8% after the Austin robotaxi launch, despite NHTSA seeking safety data on reported incidents5.
• Starbucks is considering a $6B sale of its China operations amid weak sales; shares rebounded on the news6.
• Bitcoin rebounded above $106,000 after a sharp intraday drop below $99,0008.
• T-Mobile to launch Starlink-powered T-Satellite service on July 23 following 1.8M sign-ups10.
• Supreme Court allowed Trump administration to resume "third-country" deportations as litigation continues9.

Commentary

Energy markets saw significant volatility as conflicting headlines from the Middle East drove sharp price moves. Oil futures initially dropped on Trump’s announced Israel-Iran ceasefire1, but Iran’s denial2, mutual evacuation orders11, and the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure3 kept risk elevated. While crude gave back the recent risk premium—WTI falling 11%4—the underlying supply risk persists, especially if Iran moves to disrupt shipping in the Gulf.

Geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. The U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites15 and Iran’s missile response against a U.S. base in Qatar (with minimal damage)713 highlight ongoing escalation risk. Gulf airspace disruptions were brief14, but the rapid reopening suggests regional players want to limit economic fallout. Traders should monitor for any concrete moves on the Strait of Hormuz3 and further military or diplomatic developments overnight.

In equities, corporate headlines offered some counterbalance. Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin lifted shares despite immediate regulatory scrutiny over safety incidents5. Starbucks’ potential $6B China exit was well received as investors look for a turnaround in a challenging market6. T-Mobile’s Starlink partnership advances direct-to-device connectivity, underscoring ongoing telecom innovation10.

Crypto remains volatile but resilient, with Bitcoin rebounding sharply above $106,000 after an intraday dip8. On the policy front, the Supreme Court’s decision to allow third-country deportations marks another step in the Trump administration’s immigration agenda and could have broader political implications9.