TL;DR

Trump opens 401(k)s to crypto; Nvidia, AMD regain China access; CPI data, Fed cuts in focus.

Highlights

• Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to allow 401(k) plans to invest in crypto, private equity, and real estate, opening a $12.5T market to alternative assets 1.
• Nvidia and AMD will share 15% of China AI chip revenue with the US government as a condition for export licenses, restoring partial access to the Chinese market 2.
• Fed Vice Chair Bowman called for three rate cuts in 2025, citing weak jobs data and moderating core PCE inflation (2.8%) 3.
• US stock futures edged higher ahead of key CPI and PPI data this week, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq near record highs and the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E at 38.8x 1811.
• Crypto market cap rose above $4T, driven by strong inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs; Ethereum briefly topped $4,200, triggering $180M in short liquidations 179.
• Trump is considering moving marijuana to Schedule III, which could ease restrictions and benefit the legal cannabis sector 14.
• Trump will host Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15 for Ukraine cease-fire talks; Russia proposes Kyiv cede Donbas and Crimea, rejected by Ukraine and Europe 4.
• Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, escalating attacks on energy infrastructure ahead of the US-Russia summit 6.
• China pressed the US to ease AI chip export curbs in trade talks; Chinese state media accused Nvidia ’s H20 chips of security risks, which Nvidia denies 716.
• China detained senior diplomat Liu Jianchao, raising uncertainty over Beijing’s foreign policy leadership during ongoing US-China negotiations 8.
• US federal debt surpassed $37T weeks after the debt ceiling was lifted, with $780B in new obligations issued since July 4 13.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will take full military control of Gaza, increasing regional risk and drawing international criticism 5.

Commentary

US equity futures are modestly higher in early Monday trade, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq near record territory as traders await CPI and PPI prints for direction 18. Market valuations remain stretched, with the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E at 38.8x and tech sector concentration at multi-decade highs—Nvidia alone now represents over 8% of the index 11. The upcoming inflation data will be closely watched, especially after Fed Vice Chair Bowman’s call for three rate cuts this year, citing a softening labor market and moderating core inflation 3. Any surprise in the data could quickly shift rate cut expectations and drive volatility across equities, rates, and the dollar 18.

Policy developments are in focus. Trump’s executive order to allow 401(k) plans to invest in crypto and private equity is a significant regulatory shift, but actual adoption will be gradual as plan sponsors and providers assess legal and operational risks 1. Nonetheless, the move, alongside strong inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, has supported a renewed rally in digital assets, with Ethereum’s sharp move above $4,200 triggering notable short liquidations 179. Trump’s consideration of rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III could also unlock growth for the cannabis sector by easing tax and research restrictions 14.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated. The upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, with Russia proposing Ukrainian territorial concessions, introduces headline risk for energy and defense markets, especially after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries 46. Israeli plans to take full military control of Gaza further increase uncertainty in the Middle East, with potential implications for oil and regional assets 5. Meanwhile, the US federal debt has exceeded $37T, keeping Treasury supply and fiscal sustainability in focus as markets assess the outlook for rates and funding costs 13.

US-China tech tensions persist despite the partial reopening of the Chinese AI chip market for Nvidia and AMD , who must now share 15% of related revenue with the US government 2. China’s request to ease export curbs and the detention of a top Chinese diplomat add to policy uncertainty 78. Allegations from Chinese state media about Nvidia ’s chip security, which the company denies, highlight ongoing risks for US tech firms operating in China 16.

Traders should monitor US inflation data, policy headlines on 401(k) and cannabis, developments in US-Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, and any further signals on US-China tech relations for potential market-moving events this week.