TL;DR

Trump targets China and Brazil with tariffs; Fed flags inflation risk; Sarepta surges on restructuring.

Highlights

• Trump imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese imports over fentanyl concerns and signed the bipartisan HALT Fentanyl Act19.
• Fed officials, including NY Fed’s Williams, expect tariffs to add 1 percentage point to inflation through 2026; policy remains restrictive214.
• U.S. launched a Section 301 probe into Brazil’s trade practices, focusing on the Pix payment system, after a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports8.
• Sarepta Therapeutics announced 500 job cuts, a black box warning for Elevidys, and a strategic shift; shares rose over 50% after hours5.
• United Airlines delivered mixed Q2 results, narrowing 2025 EPS guidance to $9–$11; stock slipped ~2% post-close6.
• Kinder Morgan posted a 24% profit jump on strong gas demand; J.B. Hunt ’s profit fell amid margin pressure7.
• FOIA showed U.S. Marshals hold just 29,000 Bitcoin , much less than previously believed, raising questions on U.S. crypto reserves4.
• Amazon won dismissal of a class action over its $2.99 Prime Video ad fee12.
• GrabAGun dropped over 20% in its NYSE debut after a $179M SPAC deal13.
• Trump claimed Coca-Cola agreed to switch U.S. Coke to cane sugar, but the company has not confirmed11.
• Alaska Peninsula was hit by a magnitude 7.3 earthquake, triggering a tsunami warning; no major damage reported10.
• Brazil’s Supreme Court upheld most of Lula’s IOF tax hikes on financial operations, except for “risk sacado” receivables15.

Commentary

Trade policy developments took center stage, with the U.S. imposing a 20% tariff on Chinese imports in response to fentanyl trafficking1 and opening a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trade practices8. These actions, alongside the recent 50% tariff on Brazilian exports8, signal a more aggressive U.S. stance on trade enforcement. The focus on China and Brazil introduces additional uncertainty for companies with global supply chains and could pressure sectors reliant on imported inputs or cross-border digital payments.

Federal Reserve officials highlighted that recent tariffs are expected to add around one percentage point to inflation through 2026214, delaying progress toward the 2% target. The Fed is maintaining a “modestly restrictive” policy stance as it monitors the evolving impact, suggesting interest rates are likely to remain elevated214. This environment may keep upward pressure on the dollar and limit near-term upside for longer-duration fixed income.

Earnings results were mixed: Sarepta’s cost-cutting and regulatory clarity drove a sharp after-hours rally5, while United Airlines and J.B. Hunt both cited margin and operational pressures, leading to muted or negative stock reactions67. Kinder Morgan ’s strong quarter, driven by robust natural gas demand, contrasted with J.B. Hunt ’s ongoing freight margin challenges7. Amazon ’s legal win over its Prime Video ad fee removes a potential overhang12, while GrabAGun’s weak NYSE debut highlights continued caution toward SPACs and small-cap IPOs13.

In crypto, the FOIA disclosure that U.S. Marshals hold just 29,000 Bitcoin —far less than previously estimated—raises questions about the disposition of federal crypto reserves and may add to market speculation around government holdings and potential sales4. Other headlines, such as Trump’s unconfirmed claim about Coca-Cola ’s sweetener switch11 and the Alaska earthquake10, are unlikely to have immediate market impact but remain on the radar for sector-specific moves.