TL;DR

US-EU trade deal averts tariff war; US-China truce extension likely; equity speculation at highs.

Highlights

• US and EU reach agreement: 15% US tariff on most EU goods (including autos)1; EU commits to $600B US investment and $750B in US energy purchases4; 50% tariffs on steel/aluminum stay1.
• US and China expected to extend tariff truce by 90 days, maintaining suspension of most bilateral levies; formal announcement likely during Stockholm talks2.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick reaffirms Aug. 1 as a hard tariff deadline for non-exempt countries; exemptions still possible for partners negotiating deals3.
• Goldman Sachs flags record speculative activity in US equities, with option and retail trading at highs; S&P 500 put options remain cheap8.
• Boeing faces potential strike at St. Louis defense plants after union rejects 20% pay deal; F-15/F/A-18 production at risk6.
• Ethereum rallies above $3,800 on $8.2B in three-month inflows, led by institutional and ETF demand14.
• Galaxy Digital sells 80,000 Bitcoin (~$9.6B) for early investor; BTC dips 5% but rebounds to ~$117K15.
• Zora token surges nearly 10x in a month after Coinbase Base integration; trading volumes and leverage spike16.
• China proposes global AI governance body as $1B in Nvidia chips reach China despite US export curbs; Huawei debuts new AI hardware5.
• Allianz Life discloses data breach affecting most of its 1.4M customers via third-party CRM hack13.
• Argentina cuts soy and meat export taxes, aiming to boost farm sector and global commodity flows7.
• OpenAI’s Sam Altman becomes Trump’s lead AI adviser, warns banks about AI-driven voice fraud risk1112.

Commentary

The US-EU trade agreement removes the immediate threat of a trans-Atlantic trade war, replacing a potential 30% tariff with a 15% rate on most EU goods1. The EU’s commitments to significant US investment and energy purchases should support US energy and defense sectors4. The deal also provides clarity for US auto and manufacturing equities, though existing high steel and aluminum tariffs persist1. Separately, the US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by 90 days, keeping most bilateral tariffs suspended and avoiding near-term escalation2. However, the US maintains an Aug. 1 deadline for new tariffs on countries without agreements, so traders should monitor for any last-minute developments or formal confirmations from the Stockholm talks3.

US equity markets are seeing a surge in speculative activity, with Goldman Sachs noting record levels in option and retail trading8. This environment has historically preceded periods of increased volatility. S&P 500 put options remain relatively inexpensive, offering a tactical hedge for traders concerned about a potential pullback8. In the industrial sector, Boeing faces a possible strike at its St. Louis defense plants after workers rejected a 20% pay increase. A walkout would disrupt F-15 and F/A-18 production, adding operational risk to defense names6.

Commodities and currencies are likely to react to Argentina’s permanent cuts to soy and meat export taxes, which could pressure global prices and impact US agricultural exporters7. The US-EU energy deal is a positive for US LNG and oil exporters4. In crypto, Ethereum’s rally above $3,800 is underpinned by strong institutional inflows and ETF demand14, while Bitcoin ’s resilience after a large legacy sale signals ongoing bullish sentiment15. The sharp rise in Zora token highlights continued speculative momentum in altcoins16.

AI and cybersecurity remain in focus. China’s call for a global AI governance body and evidence of US chip export controls being circumvented may intensify regulatory scrutiny on semiconductors, including Nvidia 5. In the US, OpenAI’s Sam Altman has become Trump’s primary AI adviser, signaling ongoing federal engagement with the sector11. Altman’s warnings about AI-driven fraud and the Allianz Life data breach spotlight persistent operational and reputational risks for financials and insurers1213.