TL;DR

Fed seen cutting rates from September; US hikes EU/Swiss tariffs; Palantir, Pfizer, BP beat.

Highlights

• White House drafting executive order to penalize banks for debanking customers over political or crypto ties 1.
• SEC launches “Project Crypto,” easing stablecoin accounting rules and signaling broader digital asset regulation 9.
• US imposes 15% tariffs on EU wine, spirits, cheese 2; 39% tariffs on most Swiss goods (excluding gold, pharma) 11.
• President Trump to appear on CNBC pre-market; markets watching for comments on tariffs, Fed, and jobs data 12.
• Goldman Sachs expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts starting September; market pricing aligns after weak jobs data 3.
• US equities rallied on rate-cut bets; S&P 500 +1.47%, Nasdaq +1.95%, Treasury yields fell sharply 14.
• Palantir stock hit record highs after first $1B quarter and raised outlook; analyst targets increased 6.
• Caterpillar missed Q2 profit estimates due to tariff costs, despite higher revenue and order backlog; DuPont , Eaton beat and raised outlooks but noted tariff headwinds 715.
• Pfizer beat Q2 expectations and raised 2025 earnings guidance; BP beat, raised dividend, and announced $750M buyback 810.
• TSMC fired staff and Taiwan arrested ex-employees over suspected 2nm trade-secret leak 5.
• Aramco Q2 profit fell 22% and dividends exceeded cash flow; management maintained positive oil demand outlook 13.
• China services PMI hit 14-month high; US factory orders fell 4.8% in June, highlighting divergence between services and manufacturing 18.

Commentary

US pre-market sentiment is shaped by a mix of monetary policy expectations, trade developments, and sector-specific earnings. The market is increasingly pricing in a faster Fed easing cycle, with Goldman Sachs forecasting three consecutive rate cuts beginning in September 3. This dovish shift, prompted by weaker jobs data and downward revisions to prior payrolls, has driven a rally in equities and a notable drop in Treasury yields 14. Rate-sensitive sectors and growth stocks are likely to remain in focus as traders position for further policy easing.

Trade tensions are again front and center. The US has raised tariffs on EU wine, spirits, and cheese to 15% 2, and imposed a 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, excluding gold and pharmaceuticals 11. These measures, along with threats of further tariffs on Indian goods, add uncertainty for exporters and supply chains, and are already impacting corporate outlooks—Caterpillar , DuPont , and others cited tariffs as a growing cost headwind despite resilient demand and order backlogs 715.

Regulatory changes in digital assets are also in play. The White House is preparing an order to penalize banks for debanking crypto and politically affiliated clients 1, while the SEC’s new “Project Crypto” initiative eases stablecoin accounting rules and aims to clarify digital asset oversight 9. This could support crypto-related equities and banks with digital asset exposure, as regulatory barriers begin to ease.

Earnings remain a key driver. Palantir ’s strong quarter and raised outlook underscore continued momentum in AI and data analytics 6, while Pfizer and BP both beat expectations and lifted guidance, supporting the healthcare and energy sectors 810. In contrast, TSMC ’s trade-secret leak and Aramco ’s profit decline highlight ongoing risks in semiconductors and the uneven impact of commodity prices 513.

Traders should monitor President Trump’s CNBC interview for any market-moving comments on tariffs, Fed appointments, or economic policy 1216. With services holding up globally but manufacturing softening, expect continued rotation between cyclical and defensive sectors as the policy backdrop evolves 18.